Beware

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

So, you're saying the top West Coast horses aren't going to do anything in the Derby then? Just like a lot said Yankee Boy wouldn't come over here and do anything in the LA Derby yesterday.
Watch his BSF jump up many points in the LA Derby yesterday from his last race on Tapeta out in Cali.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

So, you're saying the top West Coast horses aren't going to do anything in the Derby then? Just like a lot said Yankee Boy wouldn't come over here and do anything in the LA Derby yesterday.
Watch his BSF jump up many points in the LA Derby yesterday from his last race on Tapeta out in Cali.

barely beating blackberry road, and finishing behind a horse making his stakes debut, is not much recommendation for yankee bravo. if that's what the typical west coaster is going to do when on dirt, i'd also look elsewhere on derby day.

i like colonel john, but attempting 10f for the first time, against the best 3 yo's, and also making a surface switch? good luck with your future bet, i think you'll need all you can get.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by Danzig

barely beating blackberry road, and finishing behind a horse making his stakes debut, is not much recommendation for yankee bravo. if that's what the typical west coaster is going to do when on dirt, i'd also look elsewhere on derby day.

i like colonel john, but attempting 10f for the first time, against the best 3 yo's, and also making a surface switch? good luck with your future bet, i think you'll need all you can get.

Yankee Bravo is hardly the best west coast horse. He's no where near their best. The point was that he improved from synthetic to dirt in the LA Derby like his Beyers will suggest, so that it's not necessarily the right thing to think that Colonel John will regress on the dirt surface or that he might not improve on the dirt surface since his breeding favors the dirt surface. Yankee Gentleman's can usually run on both surfaces, although Yankee Bravo has more turf breeding, but Colonel John's breeding is basically all dirt.

Everyone needs all the luck and help they can get in the Derby no matter what horse they pick in the future bets.

[Cajungator26]

I like Colonel John better than anything else running out west.

[sumitas]

Hard Spun and High Cotton both won graded stakes on dirt and aw.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by sumitas

Hard Spun and High Cotton both won graded stakes on dirt and aw.

While I was a big fan of High Cotton, he and Hard Spun should not be mentioned in a post together.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

Yankee Bravo is hardly the best west coast horse. He's no where near their best. The point was that he improved from synthetic to dirt in the LA Derby like his Beyers will suggest, so that it's not necessarily the right thing to think that Colonel John will regress on the dirt surface or that he might not improve on the dirt surface since his breeding favors the dirt surface. Yankee Gentleman's can usually run on both surfaces, although Yankee Bravo has more turf breeding, but Colonel John's breeding is basically all dirt.

Everyone needs all the luck and help they can get in the Derby no matter what horse they pick in the future bets.

how is a loss considered an improvement over a win? yesterday was yankee bravos first loss after two wins on turf and one on awt. whether it was the dirt or the competition, i'd think they would have expected a bit more from him yesterday before continuing on the derby trail. maybe i'd be a bit higher on him had he at least managed a second ahead of the pace setter attempting his first stakes start.

colonel john may be better than yankee bravo, but i don't see how that translates to him being a good dirt horse.

and yes, all future bets require a bit of luck. but betting on a horse making a surface change, shipping, going 10f for the first time, while attempting to run in a huge field full of top quality horses who are not making so many changes probably requires more than the normal amount of luck.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by Danzig

how is a loss considered an improvement over a win? yesterday was yankee bravos first loss after two wins on turf and one on awt. whether it was the dirt or the competition, i'd think they would have expected a bit more from him yesterday before continuing on the derby trail. maybe i'd be a bit higher on him had he at least managed a second ahead of the pace setter attempting his first stakes start.

colonel john may be better than yankee bravo, but i don't see how that translates to him being a good dirt horse.

and yes, all future bets require a bit of luck. but betting on a horse making a surface change, shipping, going 10f for the first time, while attempting to run in a huge field full of top quality horses who are not making so many changes probably requires more than the normal amount of luck.

You're missing the point. Yankee Bravo was beating up on absolutely nothing out in CA. He improved a little bit from his last start, which means that he ran a little bit better in the LA Derby than he did in the CA Derby even though he didn't win the LA Derby. They don't have to win the race when facing better competition to improve. Personally, I think YB needs blinkers because he was weaving in and out of the stretch a little bit in the LA Derby. That might help a little bit. Either he wasn't focused or he was hurting a bit because I don't think he has ever done that before.

I don't think its a far stretch to say that Colonel John is definitely in the top 5 talent wise at this point, and I don't think that hardly anyone would question his ability to run on the dirt based on his breeding. I think he is the best stretch runner in the country with the exception of Pyro...maybe. He might can out kick Pyro. That last furlong in his last race was fast, fast, fast.

I'm glad Colonel John isn't getting the respect that he deserves from some right now. I hope everyone disregards the CA horses this year like almost every year.