Beware

[cmorioles]

I can only assume because anyone not knowing this either doesn't care about money or doesn't bet.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

So, you're saying the top West Coast horses aren't going to do anything in the Derby then? Just like a lot said Yankee Boy wouldn't come over here and do anything in the LA Derby yesterday.
Watch his BSF jump up many points in the LA Derby yesterday from his last race on Tapeta out in Cali.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

So, you're saying the top West Coast horses aren't going to do anything in the Derby then? Just like a lot said Yankee Boy wouldn't come over here and do anything in the LA Derby yesterday.
Watch his BSF jump up many points in the LA Derby yesterday from his last race on Tapeta out in Cali.

barely beating blackberry road, and finishing behind a horse making his stakes debut, is not much recommendation for yankee bravo. if that's what the typical west coaster is going to do when on dirt, i'd also look elsewhere on derby day.

i like colonel john, but attempting 10f for the first time, against the best 3 yo's, and also making a surface switch? good luck with your future bet, i think you'll need all you can get.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by Danzig

barely beating blackberry road, and finishing behind a horse making his stakes debut, is not much recommendation for yankee bravo. if that's what the typical west coaster is going to do when on dirt, i'd also look elsewhere on derby day.

i like colonel john, but attempting 10f for the first time, against the best 3 yo's, and also making a surface switch? good luck with your future bet, i think you'll need all you can get.

Yankee Bravo is hardly the best west coast horse. He's no where near their best. The point was that he improved from synthetic to dirt in the LA Derby like his Beyers will suggest, so that it's not necessarily the right thing to think that Colonel John will regress on the dirt surface or that he might not improve on the dirt surface since his breeding favors the dirt surface. Yankee Gentleman's can usually run on both surfaces, although Yankee Bravo has more turf breeding, but Colonel John's breeding is basically all dirt.

Everyone needs all the luck and help they can get in the Derby no matter what horse they pick in the future bets.

[Cajungator26]

I like Colonel John better than anything else running out west.

[sumitas]

Hard Spun and High Cotton both won graded stakes on dirt and aw.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by sumitas

Hard Spun and High Cotton both won graded stakes on dirt and aw.

While I was a big fan of High Cotton, he and Hard Spun should not be mentioned in a post together.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

Yankee Bravo is hardly the best west coast horse. He's no where near their best. The point was that he improved from synthetic to dirt in the LA Derby like his Beyers will suggest, so that it's not necessarily the right thing to think that Colonel John will regress on the dirt surface or that he might not improve on the dirt surface since his breeding favors the dirt surface. Yankee Gentleman's can usually run on both surfaces, although Yankee Bravo has more turf breeding, but Colonel John's breeding is basically all dirt.

Everyone needs all the luck and help they can get in the Derby no matter what horse they pick in the future bets.

how is a loss considered an improvement over a win? yesterday was yankee bravos first loss after two wins on turf and one on awt. whether it was the dirt or the competition, i'd think they would have expected a bit more from him yesterday before continuing on the derby trail. maybe i'd be a bit higher on him had he at least managed a second ahead of the pace setter attempting his first stakes start.

colonel john may be better than yankee bravo, but i don't see how that translates to him being a good dirt horse.

and yes, all future bets require a bit of luck. but betting on a horse making a surface change, shipping, going 10f for the first time, while attempting to run in a huge field full of top quality horses who are not making so many changes probably requires more than the normal amount of luck.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by Danzig

how is a loss considered an improvement over a win? yesterday was yankee bravos first loss after two wins on turf and one on awt. whether it was the dirt or the competition, i'd think they would have expected a bit more from him yesterday before continuing on the derby trail. maybe i'd be a bit higher on him had he at least managed a second ahead of the pace setter attempting his first stakes start.

colonel john may be better than yankee bravo, but i don't see how that translates to him being a good dirt horse.

and yes, all future bets require a bit of luck. but betting on a horse making a surface change, shipping, going 10f for the first time, while attempting to run in a huge field full of top quality horses who are not making so many changes probably requires more than the normal amount of luck.

You're missing the point. Yankee Bravo was beating up on absolutely nothing out in CA. He improved a little bit from his last start, which means that he ran a little bit better in the LA Derby than he did in the CA Derby even though he didn't win the LA Derby. They don't have to win the race when facing better competition to improve. Personally, I think YB needs blinkers because he was weaving in and out of the stretch a little bit in the LA Derby. That might help a little bit. Either he wasn't focused or he was hurting a bit because I don't think he has ever done that before.

I don't think its a far stretch to say that Colonel John is definitely in the top 5 talent wise at this point, and I don't think that hardly anyone would question his ability to run on the dirt based on his breeding. I think he is the best stretch runner in the country with the exception of Pyro...maybe. He might can out kick Pyro. That last furlong in his last race was fast, fast, fast.

I'm glad Colonel John isn't getting the respect that he deserves from some right now. I hope everyone disregards the CA horses this year like almost every year.

[cmorioles]

You obviously took my "they won't" comment to mean every single horse. OF COURSE a few will run better. Most won't.

Let us presume Colonel John wins or runs very well in the Santa Anita Derby. Exactly what price do you think you are going to get for your opinion that he might improve? 6 to 1 in a 20 horse field? Good luck with those kinds of bets long term.

What about Lady Joanne? She didn't run very well on synthetic that I remember, but I could be wrong. She didn't turn out that great on dirt either if memory serves.

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

So, you're saying the top West Coast horses aren't going to do anything in the Derby then?

That is how I will be betting.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

You obviously took my "they won't" comment to mean every single horse. OF COURSE a few will run better. Most won't.

Let us presume Colonel John wins or runs very well in the Santa Anita Derby. Exactly what price do you think you are going to get for your opinion that he might improve? 6 to 1 in a 20 horse field? Good luck with those kinds of bets long term.

What about Lady Joanne? She didn't run very well on synthetic that I remember, but I could be wrong. She didn't turn out that great on dirt either if memory serves.



That is how I will be betting.

You didn't see Lady Joanne's maiden before and dirt races before she took a break as a two year old. She had some very good perfermances on synthetic, but improved on the dirt to win the GI Alabama. Panty Raid barely beat her in the Spinster, and then I think Lady Joanne ran 4th in the BC Distaff if I am not mistaken.

I'm getting quite a nice price on him right now in the Derby Future wagers. I'll stick to those right now. Right now, he is good enough if he stays the same and doesn't improve any from synthetic to dirt to beat most of the east coast horses.

[cmorioles]

Here are some of the latest G1 route winners on synthetic. How have they done on dirt?

Panty Raid (is this the "good" Lady Joanne performance???)
Dominican
Christmas Kid
Nashoba's Key
Lava Man
Heatseeker
Double Trouble
Golden Doc A
Student Council

Wow, I'm pretty amazed at that dreadful list and I compiled it.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Here are some of the latest G1 route winners on synthetic. How have they done on dirt?

Panty Raid (is this the "good" Lady Joanne performance???)
Dominican
Christmas Kid
Nashoba's Key
Lava Man
Heatseeker
Double Trouble
Golden Doc A
Student Council

Wow, I'm pretty amazed at that dreadful list and I compiled it.

Lava Man was another who ran his best races on the dirt.

Panty Raid ran in the GI Alabama...Lady Joanne beat her in that race soundly. Then they met up again in the Spinster, and Panty Raid barely beat Lady Joanne. Lady Joanne could run on both surfaces well, but was better on the dirt. I think a horse's breeding has a lot to do with it.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

Lava Man was another who ran his best races on the dirt.

Panty Raid ran in the GI Alabama...Lady Joanne beat her in that race soundly. Then they met up again in the Spinster, and Panty Raid barely beat Lady Joanne. Lady Joanne could run on both surfaces well, but was better on the dirt. I think a horse's breeding has a lot to do with it.

Lava Man was a set up...he could win on anything.

Lady Joanne had already run, and won, on dirt. I didn't need to see her on synthetic to know what she was about. In retrospect, running a "turf like" race in the Spinster sure didn't help her on BC Day when you consider it was her only race in two and a half months before the Distaff.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Lava Man was a set up...he could win on anything.

Lady Joanne had already run, and won, on dirt. I didn't need to see her on synthetic to know what she was about. In retrospect, running a "turf like" race in the Spinster sure didn't help her on BC Day when you consider it was her only race in two and a half months before the Distaff.

Isn't the whole point that horses who can run really well on synthetic like SS, LJ, and LM can be better on the dirt?

Lava Man could win on anything, but was best on the dirt.

Lady Joanne ran her first race on synthetic, which is when I first mentioned the horse to the board. She was better on the dirt though.

Lady Joanne had issues as noted with the break and addition of the front wraps. After the break, she never came close to moving as pretty as she did as a two-year-old. I think she could have been a better horse than she showed when she came back from that long break. So many are like that though...

I am not just going to not put a future wager on a horse as talented as Colonel John just because he is running his butt off on the synthetic surface when his breeding is all dirt. If they have the right breeding and performances, running only on the synthetic before the KD is not going to keep me from betting on them necessarily.

[blackthroatedwind]

Even your emoticons show a complete lack of originality.

[paisjpq]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Even your emoticons show a complete lack of originality.

one of the first ways that children learn is by imitation.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Even your emoticons show a complete lack of originality.

Must we go back to the who is the better of the two horses conversation the other day?

No, I won't because I promised that I wouldn't.