Beware

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

All I am saying is a horse winning top synthetic races isn't very likely to win top dirt races, especially route races. A mediocre dirt horse like BB winning a very mediocre synthetic race like the Californian is not really relevant.

Was there an easier toss at than Lovely Isle in the SA Oaks, especially at a miserly 7 to 2?

What about Street Sense, he obviously ran better on the dirt than the synthetic, but he ran two good races on the synthetic?

You must have missed BBs Oaklawn Park Handicap and GG race before the Oaklawn Park Handicap. I would have hardly called those two performances mediocre.

I think that it is very premature to say that horses who win on the synthetic won't improve when switched to the dirt. Mainly because it has already been proven that it happens.

[cmorioles]

Last I saw, SS wasn't winning top races on synthetic. You said maybe the horses from Cali will improve moving from dirt to synthetic. I would much rather bet the horses that showed promise and didn't run well on synthetic. The vast majority of horses winning top synthetic races are turf horses. Of course there will always be a few that handle dirt, turf, poly, whatever, but the vast majority will have a definite preference of one over the other.

So again, if they are running well on synthetic, don't expect the same on dirt, or visa versa. In the long run, thinking this way will save actual bettors a lot of money.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

So again, if they are running well on synthetic, don't expect the same on dirt, or visa versa. In the long run, thinking this way will save actual bettors a lot of money.

You mean there's a difference between internet know-it-alls stamping their feet for attention, trying to prove they are right about something they are wrong about, and people who actually try to wager to make money?

[cmorioles]

I can only assume because anyone not knowing this either doesn't care about money or doesn't bet.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

So, you're saying the top West Coast horses aren't going to do anything in the Derby then? Just like a lot said Yankee Boy wouldn't come over here and do anything in the LA Derby yesterday.
Watch his BSF jump up many points in the LA Derby yesterday from his last race on Tapeta out in Cali.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

So, you're saying the top West Coast horses aren't going to do anything in the Derby then? Just like a lot said Yankee Boy wouldn't come over here and do anything in the LA Derby yesterday.
Watch his BSF jump up many points in the LA Derby yesterday from his last race on Tapeta out in Cali.

barely beating blackberry road, and finishing behind a horse making his stakes debut, is not much recommendation for yankee bravo. if that's what the typical west coaster is going to do when on dirt, i'd also look elsewhere on derby day.

i like colonel john, but attempting 10f for the first time, against the best 3 yo's, and also making a surface switch? good luck with your future bet, i think you'll need all you can get.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by Danzig

barely beating blackberry road, and finishing behind a horse making his stakes debut, is not much recommendation for yankee bravo. if that's what the typical west coaster is going to do when on dirt, i'd also look elsewhere on derby day.

i like colonel john, but attempting 10f for the first time, against the best 3 yo's, and also making a surface switch? good luck with your future bet, i think you'll need all you can get.

Yankee Bravo is hardly the best west coast horse. He's no where near their best. The point was that he improved from synthetic to dirt in the LA Derby like his Beyers will suggest, so that it's not necessarily the right thing to think that Colonel John will regress on the dirt surface or that he might not improve on the dirt surface since his breeding favors the dirt surface. Yankee Gentleman's can usually run on both surfaces, although Yankee Bravo has more turf breeding, but Colonel John's breeding is basically all dirt.

Everyone needs all the luck and help they can get in the Derby no matter what horse they pick in the future bets.

[cmorioles]

You obviously took my "they won't" comment to mean every single horse. OF COURSE a few will run better. Most won't.

Let us presume Colonel John wins or runs very well in the Santa Anita Derby. Exactly what price do you think you are going to get for your opinion that he might improve? 6 to 1 in a 20 horse field? Good luck with those kinds of bets long term.

What about Lady Joanne? She didn't run very well on synthetic that I remember, but I could be wrong. She didn't turn out that great on dirt either if memory serves.

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

So, you're saying the top West Coast horses aren't going to do anything in the Derby then?

That is how I will be betting.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

You obviously took my "they won't" comment to mean every single horse. OF COURSE a few will run better. Most won't.

Let us presume Colonel John wins or runs very well in the Santa Anita Derby. Exactly what price do you think you are going to get for your opinion that he might improve? 6 to 1 in a 20 horse field? Good luck with those kinds of bets long term.

What about Lady Joanne? She didn't run very well on synthetic that I remember, but I could be wrong. She didn't turn out that great on dirt either if memory serves.



That is how I will be betting.

You didn't see Lady Joanne's maiden before and dirt races before she took a break as a two year old. She had some very good perfermances on synthetic, but improved on the dirt to win the GI Alabama. Panty Raid barely beat her in the Spinster, and then I think Lady Joanne ran 4th in the BC Distaff if I am not mistaken.

I'm getting quite a nice price on him right now in the Derby Future wagers. I'll stick to those right now. Right now, he is good enough if he stays the same and doesn't improve any from synthetic to dirt to beat most of the east coast horses.

[cmorioles]

Here are some of the latest G1 route winners on synthetic. How have they done on dirt?

Panty Raid (is this the "good" Lady Joanne performance???)
Dominican
Christmas Kid
Nashoba's Key
Lava Man
Heatseeker
Double Trouble
Golden Doc A
Student Council

Wow, I'm pretty amazed at that dreadful list and I compiled it.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Here are some of the latest G1 route winners on synthetic. How have they done on dirt?

Panty Raid (is this the "good" Lady Joanne performance???)
Dominican
Christmas Kid
Nashoba's Key
Lava Man
Heatseeker
Double Trouble
Golden Doc A
Student Council

Wow, I'm pretty amazed at that dreadful list and I compiled it.

Lava Man was another who ran his best races on the dirt.

Panty Raid ran in the GI Alabama...Lady Joanne beat her in that race soundly. Then they met up again in the Spinster, and Panty Raid barely beat Lady Joanne. Lady Joanne could run on both surfaces well, but was better on the dirt. I think a horse's breeding has a lot to do with it.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Last I saw, SS wasn't winning top races on synthetic. You said maybe the horses from Cali will improve moving from dirt to synthetic. I would much rather bet the horses that showed promise and didn't run well on synthetic. The vast majority of horses winning top synthetic races are turf horses. Of course there will always be a few that handle dirt, turf, poly, whatever, but the vast majority will have a definite preference of one over the other.

So again, if they are running well on synthetic, don't expect the same on dirt, or visa versa. In the long run, thinking this way will save actual bettors a lot of money.

That was my entire point. A horse like Colonel John has dirt breeding...not turf breeding, so who is to say he won't improve from that surface onto the dirt. He has never ran on the dirt so we don't know.

No, I said they might improve from synthetic to dirt. They haven't raced on the dirt, just synthetic.

SS was second twice on the synthetic to superior synthetic horses. He could run on the synthetic quite well, but still improved from synthetic to dirt. He almost won the BG Stakes.

I'd say a horse like Colonel John could handle the dirt and possibly improve on it based on how he moves and the fact that his breeding screams dirt.

What about Lady Joanne?

And I don't think that every horse will run the same when switching surfaces. I had Go Between in the Sunshine Millions, didn't bet Medici Code in the SA Handicap because he couldn't run on the dirt even though he was one of my favs, and bet Go Between again instead. Too bad he came up short.