Beware

[cmorioles]

If they are running well on sythetic, they won't.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

If they are running well on sythetic, they won't.

Buzzard's Bay doesn't run nearly as well on the synthetic as he does on the dirt, and he still managed to beat Sun Boat in the Californian. Street Sense also comes to mind...he wasn't as good on synthetic as he was on the dirt, but he still ran better than most.

[cmorioles]

All I am saying is a horse winning top synthetic races isn't very likely to win top dirt races, especially route races. A mediocre dirt horse like BB winning a very mediocre synthetic race like the Californian is not really relevant.

Was there an easier toss at than Lovely Isle in the SA Oaks, especially at a miserly 7 to 2?

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

All I am saying is a horse winning top synthetic races isn't very likely to win top dirt races, especially route races. A mediocre dirt horse like BB winning a very mediocre synthetic race like the Californian is not really relevant.

Was there an easier toss at than Lovely Isle in the SA Oaks, especially at a miserly 7 to 2?

What about Street Sense, he obviously ran better on the dirt than the synthetic, but he ran two good races on the synthetic?

You must have missed BBs Oaklawn Park Handicap and GG race before the Oaklawn Park Handicap. I would have hardly called those two performances mediocre.

I think that it is very premature to say that horses who win on the synthetic won't improve when switched to the dirt. Mainly because it has already been proven that it happens.

[cmorioles]

Last I saw, SS wasn't winning top races on synthetic. You said maybe the horses from Cali will improve moving from dirt to synthetic. I would much rather bet the horses that showed promise and didn't run well on synthetic. The vast majority of horses winning top synthetic races are turf horses. Of course there will always be a few that handle dirt, turf, poly, whatever, but the vast majority will have a definite preference of one over the other.

So again, if they are running well on synthetic, don't expect the same on dirt, or visa versa. In the long run, thinking this way will save actual bettors a lot of money.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

So again, if they are running well on synthetic, don't expect the same on dirt, or visa versa. In the long run, thinking this way will save actual bettors a lot of money.

You mean there's a difference between internet know-it-alls stamping their feet for attention, trying to prove they are right about something they are wrong about, and people who actually try to wager to make money?

[cmorioles]

I can only assume because anyone not knowing this either doesn't care about money or doesn't bet.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Last I saw, SS wasn't winning top races on synthetic. You said maybe the horses from Cali will improve moving from dirt to synthetic. I would much rather bet the horses that showed promise and didn't run well on synthetic. The vast majority of horses winning top synthetic races are turf horses. Of course there will always be a few that handle dirt, turf, poly, whatever, but the vast majority will have a definite preference of one over the other.

So again, if they are running well on synthetic, don't expect the same on dirt, or visa versa. In the long run, thinking this way will save actual bettors a lot of money.

That was my entire point. A horse like Colonel John has dirt breeding...not turf breeding, so who is to say he won't improve from that surface onto the dirt. He has never ran on the dirt so we don't know.

No, I said they might improve from synthetic to dirt. They haven't raced on the dirt, just synthetic.

SS was second twice on the synthetic to superior synthetic horses. He could run on the synthetic quite well, but still improved from synthetic to dirt. He almost won the BG Stakes.

I'd say a horse like Colonel John could handle the dirt and possibly improve on it based on how he moves and the fact that his breeding screams dirt.

What about Lady Joanne?

And I don't think that every horse will run the same when switching surfaces. I had Go Between in the Sunshine Millions, didn't bet Medici Code in the SA Handicap because he couldn't run on the dirt even though he was one of my favs, and bet Go Between again instead. Too bad he came up short.