Beware

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by jpops757

Its time for him to try. He can race more than 2wice a year it appears. Maybe he is just a reigonal monster but its time for him to book a trip to CD or Bel.

i wasn't asking a serious question.

but yeah, we all know that west coasters don't get serious respect til they pack their bags and head east.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

I think the west coast needs to be watched very carefully in the 3 yo division as well. They have 3 really good horses, possibly four, this year. And you don't know if some of them will improve from the synthetic to the dirt.

[cmorioles]

If they are running well on sythetic, they won't.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

If they are running well on sythetic, they won't.

Buzzard's Bay doesn't run nearly as well on the synthetic as he does on the dirt, and he still managed to beat Sun Boat in the Californian. Street Sense also comes to mind...he wasn't as good on synthetic as he was on the dirt, but he still ran better than most.

[cmorioles]

All I am saying is a horse winning top synthetic races isn't very likely to win top dirt races, especially route races. A mediocre dirt horse like BB winning a very mediocre synthetic race like the Californian is not really relevant.

Was there an easier toss at than Lovely Isle in the SA Oaks, especially at a miserly 7 to 2?

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

All I am saying is a horse winning top synthetic races isn't very likely to win top dirt races, especially route races. A mediocre dirt horse like BB winning a very mediocre synthetic race like the Californian is not really relevant.

Was there an easier toss at than Lovely Isle in the SA Oaks, especially at a miserly 7 to 2?

What about Street Sense, he obviously ran better on the dirt than the synthetic, but he ran two good races on the synthetic?

You must have missed BBs Oaklawn Park Handicap and GG race before the Oaklawn Park Handicap. I would have hardly called those two performances mediocre.

I think that it is very premature to say that horses who win on the synthetic won't improve when switched to the dirt. Mainly because it has already been proven that it happens.

[cmorioles]

Last I saw, SS wasn't winning top races on synthetic. You said maybe the horses from Cali will improve moving from dirt to synthetic. I would much rather bet the horses that showed promise and didn't run well on synthetic. The vast majority of horses winning top synthetic races are turf horses. Of course there will always be a few that handle dirt, turf, poly, whatever, but the vast majority will have a definite preference of one over the other.

So again, if they are running well on synthetic, don't expect the same on dirt, or visa versa. In the long run, thinking this way will save actual bettors a lot of money.