Beware

jpops757 · #1 03-09-2008, 07:31 AM

East vs West bias beware. All The Gr1 sprinters better watch out. Euroears is ready for the heavyweights.

jcs11204 · #2 03-09-2008, 09:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jpops757

East vs West bias beware. All The Gr1 sprinters better watch out. Euroears is ready for the heavyweights.

he is a nice horse, but he did not beat a thing. not a horse he beat was legit, but i really do like him, i had him singled in all my bets.

Danzig · #3 03-09-2008, 09:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jpops757

East vs West bias beware. All The Gr1 sprinters better watch out. Euroears is ready for the heavyweights.

but can he beat commentator? that's the big question.

jpops757 · #4 03-09-2008, 10:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig

but can he beat commentator? that's the big question.

Its time for him to try. He can race more than 2wice a year it appears. Maybe he is just a reigonal monster but its time for him to book a trip to CD or Bel.

Danzig · #5 03-09-2008, 10:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jpops757

Its time for him to try. He can race more than 2wice a year it appears. Maybe he is just a reigonal monster but its time for him to book a trip to CD or Bel.

i wasn't asking a serious question.

but yeah, we all know that west coasters don't get serious respect til they pack their bags and head east.

kentuckyrosesinmay · #6 03-09-2008, 10:42 AM

I think the west coast needs to be watched very carefully in the 3 yo division as well. They have 3 really good horses, possibly four, this year. And you don't know if some of them will improve from the synthetic to the dirt.

cmorioles · #7 03-09-2008, 11:20 AM

If they are running well on sythetic, they won't.

kentuckyrosesinmay · #8 03-09-2008, 11:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles

If they are running well on sythetic, they won't.

Buzzard's Bay doesn't run nearly as well on the synthetic as he does on the dirt, and he still managed to beat Sun Boat in the Californian. Street Sense also comes to mind...he wasn't as good on synthetic as he was on the dirt, but he still ran better than most.

cmorioles · #9 03-09-2008, 11:29 AM

All I am saying is a horse winning top synthetic races isn't very likely to win top dirt races, especially route races. A mediocre dirt horse like BB winning a very mediocre synthetic race like the Californian is not really relevant.

Was there an easier toss at than Lovely Isle in the SA Oaks, especially at a miserly 7 to 2?

kentuckyrosesinmay · #10 03-09-2008, 11:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles

All I am saying is a horse winning top synthetic races isn't very likely to win top dirt races, especially route races. A mediocre dirt horse like BB winning a very mediocre synthetic race like the Californian is not really relevant.

Was there an easier toss at than Lovely Isle in the SA Oaks, especially at a miserly 7 to 2?

What about Street Sense, he obviously ran better on the dirt than the synthetic, but he ran two good races on the synthetic?

You must have missed BBs Oaklawn Park Handicap and GG race before the Oaklawn Park Handicap. I would have hardly called those two performances mediocre.

I think that it is very premature to say that horses who win on the synthetic won't improve when switched to the dirt. Mainly because it has already been proven that it happens.

cmorioles · #11 03-09-2008, 11:38 AM

Last I saw, SS wasn't winning top races on synthetic. You said maybe the horses from Cali will improve moving from dirt to synthetic. I would much rather bet the horses that showed promise and didn't run well on synthetic. The vast majority of horses winning top synthetic races are turf horses. Of course there will always be a few that handle dirt, turf, poly, whatever, but the vast majority will have a definite preference of one over the other.

So again, if they are running well on synthetic, don't expect the same on dirt, or visa versa. In the long run, thinking this way will save actual bettors a lot of money.

blackthroatedwind · #12 03-09-2008, 11:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles

So again, if they are running well on synthetic, don't expect the same on dirt, or visa versa. In the long run, thinking this way will save actual bettors a lot of money.

You mean there's a difference between internet know-it-alls stamping their feet for attention, trying to prove they are right about something they are wrong about, and people who actually try to wager to make money?

kentuckyrosesinmay · #13 03-09-2008, 11:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Last I saw, SS wasn't winning top races on synthetic. You said maybe the horses from Cali will improve moving from dirt to synthetic. I would much rather bet the horses that showed promise and didn't run well on synthetic. The vast majority of horses winning top synthetic races are turf horses. Of course there will always be a few that handle dirt, turf, poly, whatever, but the vast majority will have a definite preference of one over the other.

So again, if they are running well on synthetic, don't expect the same on dirt, or visa versa. In the long run, thinking this way will save actual bettors a lot of money.

That was my entire point. A horse like Colonel John has dirt breeding...not turf breeding, so who is to say he won't improve from that surface onto the dirt. He has never ran on the dirt so we don't know.

No, I said they might improve from synthetic to dirt. They haven't raced on the dirt, just synthetic.

SS was second twice on the synthetic to superior synthetic horses. He could run on the synthetic quite well, but still improved from synthetic to dirt. He almost won the BG Stakes.

I'd say a horse like Colonel John could handle the dirt and possibly improve on it based on how he moves and the fact that his breeding screams dirt.

What about Lady Joanne?

And I don't think that every horse will run the same when switching surfaces. I had Go Between in the Sunshine Millions, didn't bet Medici Code in the SA Handicap because he couldn't run on the dirt even though he was one of my favs, and bet Go Between again instead. Too bad he came up short.

cmorioles · #14 03-09-2008, 11:48 AM

I can only assume because anyone not knowing this either doesn't care about money or doesn't bet.

kentuckyrosesinmay · #15 03-09-2008, 11:53 AM

So, you're saying the top West Coast horses aren't going to do anything in the Derby then? Just like a lot said Yankee Boy wouldn't come over here and do anything in the LA Derby yesterday.
Watch his BSF jump up many points in the LA Derby yesterday from his last race on Tapeta out in Cali.

cmorioles · #16 03-09-2008, 11:54 AM

You obviously took my "they won't" comment to mean every single horse. OF COURSE a few will run better. Most won't.

Let us presume Colonel John wins or runs very well in the Santa Anita Derby. Exactly what price do you think you are going to get for your opinion that he might improve? 6 to 1 in a 20 horse field? Good luck with those kinds of bets long term.

What about Lady Joanne? She didn't run very well on synthetic that I remember, but I could be wrong. She didn't turn out that great on dirt either if memory serves.

Quote:

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

So, you're saying the top West Coast horses aren't going to do anything in the Derby then?

That is how I will be betting.

kentuckyrosesinmay · #17 03-09-2008, 11:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles

You obviously took my "they won't" comment to mean every single horse. OF COURSE a few will run better. Most won't.

Let us presume Colonel John wins or runs very well in the Santa Anita Derby. Exactly what price do you think you are going to get for your opinion that he might improve? 6 to 1 in a 20 horse field? Good luck with those kinds of bets long term.

What about Lady Joanne? She didn't run very well on synthetic that I remember, but I could be wrong. She didn't turn out that great on dirt either if memory serves.

That is how I will be betting.

You didn't see Lady Joanne's maiden before and dirt races before she took a break as a two year old. She had some very good perfermances on synthetic, but improved on the dirt to win the GI Alabama. Panty Raid barely beat her in the Spinster, and then I think Lady Joanne ran 4th in the BC Distaff if I am not mistaken.

I'm getting quite a nice price on him right now in the Derby Future wagers. I'll stick to those right now. Right now, he is good enough if he stays the same and doesn't improve any from synthetic to dirt to beat most of the east coast horses.

cmorioles · #18 03-09-2008, 12:06 PM

Here are some of the latest G1 route winners on synthetic. How have they done on dirt?

Panty Raid (is this the "good" Lady Joanne performance???)
Dominican
Christmas Kid
Nashoba's Key
Lava Man
Heatseeker
Double Trouble
Golden Doc A
Student Council

Wow, I'm pretty amazed at that dreadful list and I compiled it.

blackthroatedwind · #19 03-09-2008, 12:06 PM

In this corner we have one of the most respected figure makers and racing analysts in the country. A man who makes substantial money annually at the racetrack and is relied up nationwide for his expertise in horse racing.

In the other corner.....well we know what we have.

paisjpq · #20 03-09-2008, 12:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

In this corner we have one of the most respected figure makers and racing analysts in the country. A man who makes substantial money annually at the racetrack and is relied up nationwide for his expertise in horse racing.

In the other corner.....well we know what we have.

I laughed.

we all know CJ doesn't watch races.