Bernadini/the reason for my doubts

Originally Posted by oracle80

Steve,
If hes such a friend why not ask him how tight he was for that race personally? IF he tells you he had the horse as tight as he told the public he was in the DRf I will retract it, otherwise hes a stone cold liar.

Bernardini sure looked tight enough coming off a similar layoff, and he was going a lot further than Songster had to go.....I really think this colt was compromised by the trip....I really do, Mike....look how much longer he lasted in the stretch in relation to the others that contested the early pace.....he got ambushed by the short field and the fact that all riders wanted to go to the lead and Borel capitalized on it.....

Why not give the winner some credit. He ran a hell of a race.

Albertrani who trains Songster, said: "I thought he was in great position. Edgar said he responded but the other horse just outran him."

Sounds like the better horse won. Songster ran his usual nice figure, just wasn't good enough.

[ceejay]

Albertrani didn't bet Songster down to .15:1: The public did.
Albertrani didn't say that his horse had an 87% chance to win: The public did.

Saying that a horse is ready is not the same as guaranteeing a win. These are animals not deterministic models! The horse got caught near the wire. It's horse racing, not a money market fund.

Regarding Bernardini I have one comment: 114. That number makes him competitive with all comers in the handicap division (and I throw out SinMin's 116 as Keeneland-aided), but we'll see how it pans out against elders....
http://www.drf.com/drfLeaderBoard.do?category=beyer

[Danzig]

how can you accept one horses beyer, and then throw out another?? they're all supposed to be figured in a way that in the end shows the horses ability regardless of track, bias, surface, etc....
so why would one be valid, and not another??

[ceejay]

It's how fast the horse ran. I accept that; however, I give it less weight in my handicapping of how the horse will perform next time, and that's what I mean by "I throw it out." Many times I've seen horses with easy leads produce big figs that are difficult to reproduce. Especially at KEE.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by ceejay

It's how fast the horse ran. I accept that; however, I give it less weight in my handicapping of how the horse will perform next time, and that's what I mean by "I throw it out." Many times I've seen horses with easy leads produce big figs that are difficult to reproduce. Especially at KEE.

ESPECIALLY at Keeneland....Sinister Minister will never win another race, NEVER

[Pointg5]

Originally Posted by Scav

ESPECIALLY at Keeneland....Sinister Minister will never win another race, NEVER

That's insane to say, the horse is a runner, sure he was aided by a speed bias, but if Baffert gets him right, he will be a very good horse, his sheet # was huge...

[ceejay]

Originally Posted by Scav

NEVER

I don't know if I'd say never. I spose they'll be some 3yo Aw races in the fall KEE meet that he'd fit well is. I don't give him much chance in the weight for age condition stakes anywhere though.

[Pointg5]

Originally Posted by ceejay

It's how fast the horse ran. I accept that; however, I give it less weight in my handicapping of how the horse will perform next time, and that's what I mean by "I throw it out." Many times I've seen horses with easy leads produce big figs that are difficult to reproduce. Especially at KEE.

So, Bernardini didn't have a pretty easy lead and run a big figure?

[ceejay]

Originally Posted by Pointg5

So, Bernardini didn't have a pretty easy lead and run a big figure?

Bernie didn't pull away untill the far turn in the Jim Dandy, and was behind untill he took the lead on the far turn as I recall @ PIM. That's not what I call loose on the lead.