Rite Moment & Laysh Laysh Laysh

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Bid

Watch Desormeaux's ride on A Bee C yesterday in the last at GSP. He was bound to get wide, then he decides to use the horse to gain the lead, then he decides he cant get the lead so he hangs himself 5 wide around the track. It was a criminal ride. In Kent's case the jockey should always be considered when making a wager

You really need to watch the replay again. This time, a bit more objectively. While he was wide both turns and without cover on the backstretch, Kent rode the horse flawlessly otherwise. He never asked on the turn and just went with the pace. If he tries for the lead or bids prematurely on the turn, as most of these jock normally do, he's dead. Instead, he just went with the flow and lost because he had a wider trip than the others. Then again, breaking from the 12 hole and not having enough speed to do what the 13 did, clear the field, it was expected he'd be wide. Kent is guilty of some terrible rides; this wasn't one of them, however.

[blackthroatedwind]

If the 6 horse, don't remember his name, wasn't hemmed in the whole stretch, and was able to extricate himself sooner, he would have won.....albeit with a perfect trip.

[The Bid]

TFM, he used the horse for no reason coming down the backside. He ran up to either get postion, or the lead, instead he ran up and idled. That move in its self left the horse nothing in the stretch. Im pretty objective when I watch rides, and although it may not be one of his worst, it certainly cost the horse any chance to win

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Bid

TFM, he used the horse for no reason coming down the backside. He ran up to either get postion, or the lead, instead he ran up and idled. That move in its self left the horse nothing in the stretch. Im pretty objective when I watch rides, and although it may not be one of his worst, it certainly cost the horse any chance to win

No doubt. But let's try an experiment. Compare the trip of this horse vis a vis that of Must be Gold, GP-02-28-08_R1. Who would you want to bet next out with your last dollar?

Here's how I've settled into looking at things. I can watch races very closely and notice many subtle things that I feel cost a horse a race. And, I'm not saying there's anything wrong with this approach, as it's worked for me in the past and I still rely on it AFTER I've identified a potential big race by a horse. Or, I can look at broader issues; specifically, how did the horse perform given the way the race was run?

I then have 2 options: I can make 'excuses' for horses that didn't get the best of trips but didn't exactly put in stellar performances, either (for an example, we have Smokin Rosell, today's 6th at GP ---why did some feel she had bad trips last 2 races?)
OR
I can pick out the trips where a horse ran huge in spite of the race setup or trip/ride. Now, it might seem, at first glance, that the 2nd option would typically involve only chalk. Not the case, however. If you focus on horses that ran exceptionally given the shape of the race, you'll typically get a good performance next out at decent odds. To do this, you need to be able to 'view' the entire race, not just the numbers or trip of the individual horse.

My $.02 for what it's worth.