For Blackthroat & Big Brown (104 BSF) fans

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'll be honest with you Phil.......I think he is much higher than 150-1 to win the Derby. I honestly don't know that he's even 10-1 to have the earnings for the Derby.

But, he's got a lot of ability.

I figure he's 2-1 to finish in the top 3 of the FL Derby, which will likely be their next objective, and probably enough earnings to make the cut (usually right around $120k). Obviously he's got some issues... but this is IEAH. They're DESPERATE for a Derby starter. Let's say hypothetically he makes it into the gate off an exacta finish in the Fl Derby... how many horses would be lower odds? 4-6, maybe? We're desperate for some talent right now- outside of War Pass, have any of these shown the brilliance required to win the Derby? Cool Coal Man is OK, Pyro is OK, the rest of them, not so much...

[blackthroatedwind]

I'll say it again.....he is being pointed for the Blue Grass.

[blackthroatedwind]

Well, being that they publicly said before today's race they were hoping to run in the Blue Grass, and then said it again after today's race, I will say he is being pointed for the Blue Grass.

Of course, I don't have a hotline to On.....I mean someone at IEAH...so I will have to trust the public comments for now.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Well, being that they publicly said before today's race they were hoping to run in the Blue Grass, and then said it again after today's race, I will say he is being pointed for the Blue Grass.

Of course, I don't have a hotline to On.....I mean someone at IEAH...so I will have to trust the public comments for now.

You clearly need a facebook account.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by GPK

You clearly need a facebook account.

... and I need more pics like your avatar, who is that??

[GPK]

Originally Posted by philcski

... and I need more pics like your avatar, who is that??

the incredibly elegant Diane Lane.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by GPK

the incredibly elegant Diane Lane.

I assume you've seen " A Little Romance. "

Great scenes at Longchamp.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by GPK

the incredibly elegant Diane Lane.

isn't she like 45? MILF!!!

[philcski]

Oh, and they'd be much wiser to go to the FL Derby, as 3 Derby spots are available versus 2 from the Blue Grass- not to mention the synthetic crap at KEE.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by philcski

Oh, and they'd be much wiser to go to the FL Derby, as 3 Derby spots are available versus 2 from the Blue Grass- not to mention the synthetic crap at KEE.

I think his affinity to turf is probably coming into play. Another problem with putting all your eggs in the Florida Derby basket is what happens when you draw post 12.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by philcski

3 Derby spots are available versus 2 from the Blue Grass- not to mention the synthetic crap at KEE.

Big Brown did breeze under-tack on the KEE Polytrack at the April sale last year.

He registered a big stride (almost 26 feet long) - but didn't show a great deal of raw speed - his quarter mile work was in 21.20 seconds.

He was a $60K yearling and sold for $190,000 after that work.

I doubt something like that had much of anything to do with the decision to aim for the Blue Grass - but the horse did get over that stupid surface well enough to think it shouldn't be any concern or excuse.

I need to go over the replays of GP's races today much closer before I come to any strong opinions about this horse.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by philcski

I figure he's 2-1 to finish in the top 3 of the FL Derby, which will likely be their next objective, and probably enough earnings to make the cut (usually right around $120k). Obviously he's got some issues... but this is IEAH. They're DESPERATE for a Derby starter. Let's say hypothetically he makes it into the gate off an exacta finish in the Fl Derby... how many horses would be lower odds? 4-6, maybe? We're desperate for some talent right now- outside of War Pass, have any of these shown the brilliance required to win the Derby? Cool Coal Man is OK, Pyro is OK, the rest of them, not so much...

Let me also add......I would love to give you 2-1 that he runs in the top 3 in either of those races......and you lose if he runs in neither.

Do you really think a horse that debuts on Labor Day and takes six months to make his second career start is 2-1 to make any race in a month?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Let me also add......I would love to give you 2-1 that he runs in the top 3 in either of those races......and you lose if he runs in neither.

Do you really think a horse that debuts on Labor Day and takes six months to make his second career start is 2-1 to make any race in a month?

I would take 2-1 on him in either race to hit the board, yes... if I were sure he would make the gate. And I wholeheartedly agree the horse has issues, but remember who we are dealing with here- Dutrow (who could probably raise Lazarus) and IEAH (who are DESPERATE for a Derby starter). IF the horse is healthy, and maybe he is enough to make it two months, he's a legitimate contender.

I would bet everything I have that he doesn't make it past June, however.

[blackthroatedwind]

I understand he may be under 2-1 to hit the board ( he will most likely pay less than $6 to show ) but even if he's 40% to hit the board, which I don't think, I'm not so sure he's even 40% to make either race realistically.

On your June bet....you'll have to find another bookmaker.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Cardus

And soon thereafter, he'd raze Lazarus.

... or run him the next day.

I think Big Brown has a chance to win the Arc if he goes.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

I think Big Brown has a chance to win the Arc if he goes.

I'll lay you a 30 pack of beers to my one. They're only offering a case in Vegas on the Arc.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by philcski

I'll lay you a 30 pack of beers to my one. They're only offering a case in Vegas on the Arc.

A 30 pack is about the equal of 3 beers at Siro's

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

A 30 pack is about the equal of 3 beers at Siro's

And a half keg of "UC"

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

I think Big Brown has a chance to win the Arc if he goes.

Wire the field?