3/8 (FG): LA Derby Day (6 Stakes)

[The Indomitable DrugS]

What the hell is Pletcher doing with A. P. Arrow?

He would have been 1/5 in that lousy Grade 2 350K field at GP last week .. he entered Fairbanks instead!

Now, A. P. Arrow has two nice works into him since his close 2nd to Spring At Last in the Donn Handicap - instead of entering him in this weeks Gr 2 $500K dirt race at nine furlongs - he decides to enter the lousy tag team of Circular Quay and Magna Graduate.

Keep in mind, Magna Graduate was nominated to the Gr 3 Razorback at Oaklawn Park - a prep for the Oaklawn Park Handicap...which seemed like a highly logical route for MG to take.

A. P. Arrow not entering very logical spots two weeks in a row seems like a pretty big tipoff that Pletcher intends to run him in the Dubai World Cup.

When you only have one halfway decent older male dirt router - and no 3yo to take his place - why take him half way around the world to a race he has no shot in hell of winning?

I realize 2nd place in the World Cup pays $1.2 million and A. P. Arrow isn't a synthetic horse so his BC Classic hopes are nill - but, he's also FAR from a sure thing to run 2nd in Dubai ... and Pletcher is really going to miss him in these yearlong dirt routes in his empty division.

With the picture as it stands now, to me, running A. P. Arrow in Dubai looks almost as silly as not running Rags To Riches in the Belmont looked leading up to that race. If you remember, it had to take a Street Sense defection for him to run her!

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

What the hell is Pletcher doing with A. P. Arrow?

He would have been 1/5 in that lousy Grade 2 350K field at GP last week .. he entered Fairbanks instead!

Now, A. P. Arrow has two nice works into him since his close 2nd to Spring At Last in the Donn Handicap - instead of entering him in this weeks Gr 2 $500K dirt race at nine furlongs - he decides to enter the lousy tag team of Circular Quay and Magna Graduate.

Keep in mind, Magna Graduate was nominated to the Gr 3 Razorback at Oaklawn Park - a prep for the Oaklawn Park Handicap...which seemed like a highly logical route for MG to take.

A. P. Arrow not entering very logical spots two weeks in a row seems like a pretty big tipoff that Pletcher intends to run him in the Dubai World Cup.

When you only have one halfway decent older male dirt router - and no 3yo to take his place - why take him half way around the world to a race he has no shot in hell of winning?

I realize 2nd place in the World Cup pays $1.2 million and A. P. Arrow isn't a synthetic horse so his BC Classic hopes are nill - but, he's also FAR from a sure thing to run 2nd in Dubai ... and Pletcher is really going to miss him in these yearlong dirt routes in his empty division.

With the picture as it stands now, to me, running A. P. Arrow in Dubai looks almost as silly as not running Rags To Riches in the Belmont looked leading up to that race. If you remember, it had to take a Street Sense defection for him to run her!

He's sure as hell no less of likely to run 2nd or 3rd in Dubai as is would have been to win the GP Hcp or would be to win the FG race.

Besides Spring at Last and Daaher, AP Arrow is the only horse in that race that got the trip he wanted. And that was the way the race figured. He was no sure thing to beat Fairbainks on Saturday, much less the winner.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

A.P. Arrow would have been 2/5 last Saturday - he's very soundly beaten Fairbanks in his last two races...and Sir Whimsey just isn't much.

Curlin will make a pure mockery of him in Dubai.

It's hard to imagine not wanting to dance all the dances in such a weak yet lucrative division - by leaving the door wide open for a Dubai trip as Pletcher is doing ... he's considering leaving all these easy pickings go ... just for a shot to make $1.2 million for running 2nd beaten a city block to Curlin.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

What the hell is Pletcher doing with A. P. Arrow?

He would have been 1/5 in that lousy Grade 2 350K field at GP last week .. he entered Fairbanks instead!

Now, A. P. Arrow has two nice works into him since his close 2nd to Spring At Last in the Donn Handicap - instead of entering him in this weeks Gr 2 $500K dirt race at nine furlongs - he decides to enter the lousy tag team of Circular Quay and Magna Graduate.

Keep in mind, Magna Graduate was nominated to the Gr 3 Razorback at Oaklawn Park - a prep for the Oaklawn Park Handicap...which seemed like a highly logical route for MG to take.

A. P. Arrow not entering very logical spots two weeks in a row seems like a pretty big tipoff that Pletcher intends to run him in the Dubai World Cup.

When you only have one halfway decent older male dirt router - and no 3yo to take his place - why take him half way around the world to a race he has no shot in hell of winning?

I realize 2nd place in the World Cup pays $1.2 million and A. P. Arrow isn't a synthetic horse so his BC Classic hopes are nill - but, he's also FAR from a sure thing to run 2nd in Dubai ... and Pletcher is really going to miss him in these yearlong dirt routes in his empty division.

With the picture as it stands now, to me, running A. P. Arrow in Dubai looks almost as silly as not running Rags To Riches in the Belmont looked leading up to that race. If you remember, it had to take a Street Sense defection for him to run her!

drugs do you think curlin is a lock?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

drugs do you think curlin is a lock?

Curlin is an absolute cinch in the World Cup.

The real two questions are how will he come back? - and how will he take to the synthetic tracks?

To me, the only thing standing in the way of him being defeated again are those two obstacles.

I don't see a War Pass developing enough to be good enough to beat him - it would really take WP developing much better than I expect, getting an uncontested lead, and perhaps even needing a real speed friendly racetrack to have a shot at holding him off.

Pyro is a fine animal - I have doubts he will develop enough to beat Curlin for sure. Unlike War Pass - Pyro will never EVER have a chance to win a misleading circumstancial race over Curlin ... while War Pass has the correct style to steal something.

With WP and Pyro being 3-year-olds, and with so many different routes to take in there divisons - I doubt they ever meet up with Curlin on a natural dirt track anyway.

[Scav]

Furthermore, lets chat about Indian Blessing. Four horse field with a horse that just broke its maiden, in the slop, going all kinds of slow. I see zero pace pressure but I am not sure that matters, she seems the type that won't shut off anyways, and her last race she was staggering down the lane. IB also shipped back to California and now back to FG. Proud Spell was coming and finished well, and she might have 'needed' the race, I like how Jones didn't get all nuts with her works these last two, so while the race is unbettable, I think Indian Blessing has her work cut out her this race.

Thoughts?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

IB wins Saturday - As brilliant as she is - she's sitting on becoming a fantastic bet against in the right spot...and that day is coming very soon

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

IB wins Saturday - As brilliant as she is - she's sitting on becoming a fantastic bet against in the right spot...and that day is coming very soon

i agree--but this isn't the right spot. not a bettors race for sure.

[Danzig]

i know larry jones is very high on proud spell, and said after her last that he 'wouldn't trade places with anyone' with that filly. of course they all say things like that after a loss with a horse brand new to the scene, especially when they show they could have more in reserve. but proud spell does have a lot of upside, while indian appears to have shown everyone that she has limits. but no other horse, as yet, has proven that indian blessing can't finish. altho not looking as strong at the finish as she has at the start, IB has still managed to win them all...so far. of course we all know that most horses don't continue to win them all. but only three horses to push blessing? hmmm...
i know baffert has been trying to teach her to relax more, listen to the rider...but we also all know that not all racehorses are willing pupils.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

No way Indian Blessing loses.

I'm with you on Daytona. The only thing is, who goes with him? I just looked at the race for a little while and it's as paceless as last time. Unless someone decides to send, he might just end up on the lead again. I think Elusive Fort is pretty interesting. He had some obvious trouble 2 back vs. Einstein. Last time he broke well and then was eventually wrangled back by Douglas. If he breaks quick again, maybe they let him run early. I know one thing, when Wolfson ships, the horse is usually well meant.

It don't matter with who is going with him because Solis is going to try and fight this horse. He tried in his other races. Solis is not an open up on the backstretch jock. Smith just let this horse break and do what he wanted, and then he grabbed him at the end of the 1st turn.

If Smith was on this horse, the 6/5 would be justified and the horse probably wouldn't lose, but for some reason he bailed, and he isn't at Bay Meadows so obviously something is hot on Saturday at Santa Anita for him to pass this mount.

Back to Indian Blessing, do you say she won't lose because there is no pace or because she is that much better then Proud Spell. Proud Spell was off a ~100 day layoff and finished pretty well(in front a couple jumps after the wire). Jones is 26% 2nd off the layoff with two good works coming, all at FG, where IB had to ship in, then ship back out, and now ship back to FG. I'd like to know Baffert's numbers with this 3rd start off the layoff horses. He really has his horses cranked first out (maiden's and off the layoff) and I might be wrong but alot of them tail off until the next layoff. Gomez really rode IB down the lane, alot harder then I realized. I don't think IB has a turn off button, if she did, then I would be agreeing 100% with her lockness. Now, I am obviously not touting what will be a 8/5 shot, into a horse that will be 3/5 or 2/5 but I still think she isn't a lock, given her last performance was not that impressive.

[hockey2315]

What odds can I get on Elusive Fort?

[Scav]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

What odds can I get on Elusive Fort?

Daytona will be 7/5 or 6/5 in this race. Proudinsky should take some cash

I am definitely not a ML guy but i will give it a shot

1: Buffalo Man - 10/1
2: Yate's Black Cat - 15/1
3: Brilliant - 6/1
4: Jazz Quest - 10/1
5: Elusive Fort - 15/1
6: French Beret - 20/1
7: Fracas - 12/1
8: Proudinsky - 4/1
9: Twilight Meteor - 12/1
10: Daytona - 7/5

[docicu3]

Originally Posted by Scav

It don't matter with who is going with him because Solis is going to try and fight this horse. He tried in his other races. Solis is not an open up on the backstretch jock. Smith just let this horse break and do what he wanted, and then he grabbed him at the end of the 1st turn.

If Smith was on this horse, the 6/5 would be justified and the horse probably wouldn't lose, but for some reason he bailed, and he isn't at Bay Meadows so obviously something is hot on Saturday at Santa Anita for him to pass this mount.

Back to Indian Blessing, do you say she won't lose because there is no pace or because she is that much better then Proud Spell. Proud Spell was off a ~100 day layoff and finished pretty well(in front a couple jumps after the wire). Jones is 26% 2nd off the layoff with two good works coming, all at FG, where IB had to ship in, then ship back out, and now ship back to FG. I'd like to know Baffert's numbers with this 3rd start off the layoff horses. He really has his horses cranked first out (maiden's and off the layoff) and I might be wrong but alot of them tail off until the next layoff. Gomez really rode IB down the lane, alot harder then I realized. I don't think IB has a turn off button, if she did, then I would be agreeing 100% with her lockness. Now, I am obviously not touting what will be a 8/5 shot, into a horse that will be 3/5 or 2/5 but I still think she isn't a lock, given her last performance was not that impressive.

Smith may be on Kazimira for Sheriff/Moss in the Santa Anita Oaks on Saturday. Who knows maybe he is also on Zenyatta for Sheriffs/Moss in the other G1 which goes on Sunday the Santa Margarita. Flores can't ride them all and somebody has to step up and ride these horses in these 300K races. They probably draw in a day or so....

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Curlin is an absolute cinch in the World Cup.

The real two questions are how will he come back? - and how will he take to the synthetic tracks?

To me, the only thing standing in the way of him being defeated again are those two obstacles.

I don't see a War Pass developing enough to be good enough to beat him - it would really take WP developing much better than I expect, getting an uncontested lead, and perhaps even needing a real speed friendly racetrack to have a shot at holding him off.

Pyro is a fine animal - I have doubts he will develop enough to beat Curlin for sure. Unlike War Pass - Pyro will never EVER have a chance to win a misleading circumstancial race over Curlin ... while War Pass has the correct style to steal something.

With WP and Pyro being 3-year-olds, and with so many different routes to take in there divisons - I doubt they ever meet up with Curlin on a natural dirt track anyway.

i think your giving curlin way way to much love, the world cup is going to be a hard race, and if he wins it, i doubt we will see him in this country again.
well armed

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by jcs11204

i think your giving curlin way way to much love, the world cup is going to be a hard race, and if he wins it, i doubt we will see him in this country again.
well armed

Well Armed was a nice 9th beaten about 27 lengths behind Discreet Cat, Invasor, and Sympatico Bribon the last time he was over there.

I'm sure those synthetic track wins make him elidgible to give Curlin a huge scare.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Well Armed was a nice 9th beaten about 27 lengths behind Discreet Cat and Invasor the last time he was over there.

I'm sure those synthetic track wins make him eligible to give Curlin a huge scare.

He wasn't that good...he was 11th. What ever happened to Simpatico Bribon?

By the way, FTFY.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

He - like the great Dynever - vanished after his Dubai race. They claimed both he and his undefeated at the time Group 1 stablemate Gold For Sale were both drugged in that race.

However, that quote came from Ian Jory - who trained both SB and GFS - so it should be taken with a grain of salt.