CRIST: Changes dilute Cup's appeal

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

If they did that 4% takeout thing at a major circuit track (SA, Hol, Bel, Churchill), I believe it would work. I just don't like Ellis cards because I'm not familiar with the horses or the jockey and trainer patterns.

1. You don't have to be NEARLY as familiar with the local conditions when you are trying to beat a 4% vig compared to trying to beat a 20% vig.

2. Do you think the capping competition at Ellis is as tough as at SA, Hol, Bel, Churchill? Maybe it is, but I doubt it.

3. If horse bettors were so bright, they would have collectively realized that if the 4% Ellis experiment was successful, other tracks would have noticed and tried similar things. Instead, what the other tracks noticed was a 4% takeout that did not bring in nearly enough action to justify the low vig.

Even if you knew nothing about the track, a random Ellis pick 4 costing $100 would have been a $4 investment in the future of the game. Despite the fact that the vast majority of bettors, including those here, are losing far more than 4% of their total bets in the longterm, not many bettors supported the Ellis venture.

--Dunbar