Curlin in race #5 at Nad Al Sheba on Thursday!

[blackthroatedwind]

Plus, I imagine there could be an extra race at 7F or one mile for NW1X if someone asked.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Plus, I imagine there could be an extra race at 7F or one mile for NW1X if someone asked.

I'm sure that's true. I guess if I was the owner and had $1 Million + into this horse (or the trainer) and looked at how Curlin, Street Sense and Barbaro got to the TC, I'd be hard pressed not to take a shot. All three of these got there non-conventionally...

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

I'm sure that's true. I guess if I was the owner and had $1 Million + into this horse (or the trainer) and looked at how Curlin, Street Sense and Barbaro got to the TC, I'd be hard pressed not to take a shot. All three of these got there non-conventionally...

Curlin did......and he was one in a million so to speak. Street Sense and Barbaro? They had very strong bases to build in.

This is not a question of unconventional. This is overzealousness. Good luck to them.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Curlin did......and he was one in a million so to speak. Street Sense and Barbaro? They had very strong bases to build in.

This is not a question of unconventional. This is overzealousness. Good luck to them.

Foundation wise, yes Curlin only. But while Barbaro (5 weeks) and Street Sense (two preps) both had foundations, they each defied conventional wisdom in their own ways.

Who knows? But I think people are more likely to take their shots than a few years ago....

[Payson Dave]

8th Race. (C3) Post 4:50PM ALLOWANCE
Purse $41,500 (Plus $5,500 F.O.A. Winner Supp.) 1 1/8 Miles
For Three Year Olds Which Have Never Won A Race Other Than Maiden, Claiming Or Starter or Which Have Never Won Two Races.
1 COOL GATOR (L) '05 C E34 118 Prado, E Hillsbrook Farms Vella, D
2 JACK'S ELEVEN (L) '05 C R19 118 Maysonett, F Kelly, P Mongeon, K
3 NISTLE'S CRUNCH (L) '05 C R24 118 Lezcano, J Alien Farm LLC and Furst, Alan McPeek, K
4 JAZZAHOLIC (L) '05 C 0 **111 Lopez, P Delany, Brian and Plummer, Diana L. Catanese, III, J
5 UNDERSTATEMENT (L) '05 C R31 118 Velazquez, J WinStar Farm LLC Pletcher, T
6 EXTREME FROLIC (L) '05 C R29 118 Cruz, M Stride Rite Racing Stable, Inc. Wolfson, MW
7 SAMBA ROOSTER (L) '05 C R32 122 Castro, E Off The Hook LLC Wolfson, MD
8 MAMBO MEISTER (L) '05 G R29 118 Castellano, J Cavanaugh, James R. and Pallas, Chris Gleaves, P
9 BORDEAUX BANDIT (L) '05 C R34 120 Bravo, J My Meadowview Farm Zito, N
10 AQUARIAN (L) '05 C R29 118 Coa, E Farmer, T Zito, N


Is going from a 6f mdn win to a 9F NW1X Alw all that unusual??....I'd think that I'd rather see that as opposed to going from a mdn win directly into a Stakes race.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Payson Dave

8th Race. (C3) Post 4:50PM ALLOWANCE
Purse $41,500 (Plus $5,500 F.O.A. Winner Supp.) 1 1/8 Miles
For Three Year Olds Which Have Never Won A Race Other Than Maiden, Claiming Or Starter or Which Have Never Won Two Races.
1 COOL GATOR (L) '05 C E34 118 Prado, E Hillsbrook Farms Vella, D
2 JACK'S ELEVEN (L) '05 C R19 118 Maysonett, F Kelly, P Mongeon, K
3 NISTLE'S CRUNCH (L) '05 C R24 118 Lezcano, J Alien Farm LLC and Furst, Alan McPeek, K
4 JAZZAHOLIC (L) '05 C 0 **111 Lopez, P Delany, Brian and Plummer, Diana L. Catanese, III, J
5 UNDERSTATEMENT (L) '05 C R31 118 Velazquez, J WinStar Farm LLC Pletcher, T
6 EXTREME FROLIC (L) '05 C R29 118 Cruz, M Stride Rite Racing Stable, Inc. Wolfson, MW
7 SAMBA ROOSTER (L) '05 C R32 122 Castro, E Off The Hook LLC Wolfson, MD
8 MAMBO MEISTER (L) '05 G R29 118 Castellano, J Cavanaugh, James R. and Pallas, Chris Gleaves, P
9 BORDEAUX BANDIT (L) '05 C R34 120 Bravo, J My Meadowview Farm Zito, N
10 AQUARIAN (L) '05 C R29 118 Coa, E Farmer, T Zito, N


Is going from a 6f mdn win to a 9F NW1X Alw all that unusual??....I'd think that I'd rather see that as opposed to going from a mdn win directly into a Stakes race.

I realize we're talking about Understatement here, but I hate that post for Bordeaux Bandit... isn't doing him any favors at all.

I'll have to place a name bet on Cool Gator, especially since Prado is aboard and he's coming from an inside post.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Curlin did......and he was one in a million so to speak. Street Sense and Barbaro? They had very strong bases to build in.

This is not a question of unconventional. This is overzealousness. Good luck to them.

and of course pletcher and winstar can afford to take the risk, the rewards (IF lucky enough to get any with this horse) would be astronomical.
but i doubt they could say with a straight face that they have the horses best interests in mind here. but at this time of year, with a promising three year old, who does?

and of course no surprise when i go to the pedigree page, he's by distorted humor. one start. one win. oh, a derby horse.

[Linny]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

I'm sure that's true. I guess if I was the owner and had $1 Million + into this horse (or the trainer) and looked at how Curlin, Street Sense and Barbaro got to the TC, I'd be hard pressed not to take a shot. All three of these got there non-conventionally...

Barbaro was a 2 turn sw at 2, albeit on grass. He won a route stake (Tropical Park Derby) on Jan 1 or 2 before moving to dirt. He had far more foundation than this colt of Todd's. I agree with BTW, if they want a race, ask for one. I suppose that last Sunday's race with WP was unacceptable as he'd have had 0 chance to win and that hurts Todd's percentage. FG, OP, AQU and SA have allowance programs. He can ship, I presume? Agreed, it's strange. I think Todd is "pressing" a bit with this one.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by Linny

Barbaro was a 2 turn sw at 2, albeit on grass. He won a route stake (Tropical Park Derby) on Jan 1 or 2 before moving to dirt. He had far more foundation than this colt of Todd's. I agree with BTW, if they want a race, ask for one. I suppose that last Sunday's race with WP was unacceptable as he'd have had 0 chance to win and that hurts Todd's percentage. FG, OP, AQU and SA have allowance programs. He can ship, I presume? Agreed, it's strange. I think Todd is "pressing" a bit with this one.

You are not telling me anything I don't know. I know all about Street Sense and Barbaro's race history.

As far as shipping, can you tell me how many 2-turn n1x's FG has in the next couple weeks? Save your time, there's none.

I also know when Gulfstream moved the Florida Derby into Late March/Early April, people said it made the race irrelevant and whined about how Stronach was ruining the TC prep season. It took exactly two runnings until Barbaro won in Lousville off the FL Derby. So, all of a sudden not only is the FL Derby relevant, it also showed you can win with a prep 5 weeks out.

That defied "conventional wisdom," did it not??

Then Street Sense won off two preps. Leading up, a lot of people derided his people because it had been 50 (?) years since a horse had won off such a soft 3 yo prep season.

So, it is not solely about the Curlin as an exception, is it? The three arguably best 3 yos of the past two seasons all achieved unconventionally. And did so differently.

This is what encourages people to try to do the same.

My question for you is do you really, truly and sincerely think Pletcher is running in this race to keep his percentages up??

You can't really be serious about him running here to duck War Pass, can you?

That War Pass race was scheduled 16 days (and run 17 days) after this horse's debut. Do you know Pletcher's horse had his last work THE DAY AFTER THE WAR PASS RACE WAS SCHEDULED TO RUN?

I don't at all disagree that Understatement is on a likely over-ambitious schedule.

But there is more to trying to defy conventional wisdom than just Curlin. There is also Street Sense and Barbaro.

And Pletcher ducking War Pass? Maybe he would have if it was ever possible they'd have run on the 2/23-34.

Anyhow, good luck today...

[miraja2]

I don't know if I would say that Barbaro and Street Sense defied "conventional wisdom." They were doing things differently than other Derby winners to be sure, and that attracted some doubters, but I don't think very many serious horse players thought that they were coming into the Kentucky Derby without the proper foundation. They both had solid 2yo campaigns that left them more than prepared to be ready to go early in their 3yo years without a lot of "preps."

I would NOT be shocked if a lot of other horses won the Kentucky Derby in the future with resumes that look similar to Barbaro and Street Sense.

What Curlin did last year was remarkable, and I seriously doubt if that pattern becomes a trend in the same way that the path of the other two might. Also, while Curlin's 3rd place performance in the Derby last year was a heck of a race by him, it might be worth pointing out that he still didn't win the race. He sure looked a lot better in the Preakness after he too, had a more solid foundation.