Freshman Sires

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by philcski

Of course. But it's a lot tougher than you're making it out to be. Another person in this thread and myself own a couple two year olds we bought as yearlings, trained by yet another person in this thread. They were very modest prices, relative to what you COULD spend at the KEE Sept sales (about $20k each). By the time they hit the track, we will be $80k deep on these guys, which means even with statebred incentives (which, of course, was part of the "where do you spend" GBBob is referring to) we have maybe a 15% chance of recouping our investment.



Exactly


Now where do I sign

For some it is not so tough.

It depends on how good your eye is. Most of racing is luck, some is not. I know it can be done because I have seen it done from hanging out with some people out in California. The only part that takes a lot of luck is keeping the horse sound. Finding a good two year old in training sale horse does not take that much luck. It is a skill. I wish everyone could see what I have seen. Then, they would take me seriously.

I don't do yearlings. You are taking an enormous gamble with yearlings. There are very few people that are good at picking out yearlings...
Very, very, very few, and they are still often wrong.

See, what I would have done is taken 40,000 (combined two of 20,000), and gone to OBS April two year olds in training. At least you can tell if they can run or not in the two year olds in training sales. And I have seen some nice horses go for under 40,000. I could actually name a few under this price that turned out to be good racehoses from OBS April who had nice workouts.

That way, you wouldn't have had to pay for the training of two animals who might both turn out to be bad because yearlings change so much, you can't see them run, and they have more time for something to go wrong. If you buy a two year old, you don't have to wait so long for them to race, and don't have to waste a lot of other money in the process waiting on them. Plus, like I said, you can't tell if they can run or not as yearlings. So, its not my fault that you are 80,000 deep. You chose to be 80,000 deep. You also need to have more money saved up than what you originally buy the horse for so that you can easily pay for that horse's expenses before they make it to the races. Its all about maximizing your chances of having a good horse, and minimizing your costs in the process. I'd rather have one good horse than two bad ones.

Hopefully, this won't be the case and your yearlings will turn out for you, and you will get lucky and get your money back.

I am making it as complicated as I have seen it done from my experiences. I also know what I am capable of, and know what I am not capable of. My eye is better than most, and I know exactly who to go to who will find me a good horse if I'm not 100% confident in my abilities to pick one out by the time I purchase one.

[blackthroatedwind]

In Morty's absense I can think of no better time to quote him......




HOLY MOTHER OF GOD!

I'm tempted to order a real doll in KYRIM's likeness and have it sent to her...and a camera.

[Payson Dave]

A share in SWLY - $500
A share in KNS - $500
Entertainment like this - PRICELESS

[philcski]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

For some it is not so tough.

It depends on how good your eye is. Most of racing is luck, some is not. I know it can be done because I have seen it done from hanging out with some people out in California. The only part that takes a lot of luck is keeping the horse sound. Finding a good two year old in training sale horse does not take that much luck. It is a skill. I wish everyone could see what I have seen. Then, they would take me seriously.

I don't do yearlings. You are taking an enormous gamble with yearlings. There are very few people that are good at picking out yearlings...
Very, very, very few, and they are still often wrong.

See, what I would have done is taken 40,000 (combined two of 20,000), and gone to OBS April two year olds in training. At least you can tell if they can run or not in the two year olds in training sales. And I have seen some nice horses go for under 40,000. I could actually name a few under this price that turned out to be good racehoses from OBS April who had nice workouts.

That way, you wouldn't have had to pay for the training of two animals who might both turn out to be bad because yearlings change so much, you can't see them run, and they have more time for something to go wrong. If you buy a two year old, you don't have to wait so long for them to race, and don't have to waste a lot of other money in the process waiting on them. Plus, like I said, you can't tell if they can run or not as yearlings. So, its not my fault that you are 80,000 deep. You chose to be 80,000 deep. You also need to have more money saved up than what you originally buy the horse for so that you can easily pay for that horse's expenses before they make it to the races. Its all about maximizing your chances of having a good horse, and minimizing your costs in the process. I'd rather have one good horse than two bad ones.

Hopefully, this won't be the case and your yearlings will turn out for you, and you will get lucky and get your money back.

I am making it as complicated as I have seen it done from my experiences. I also know what I am capable of, and know what I am not capable of. My eye is better than most, and I know exactly who to go to who will find me a good horse if I'm not 100% confident in my abilities to pick one out by the time I purchase one.

Okay. I'm trying to help you out here and you go Little Miss can't be wrong on me. Let's get something straight. YOU DONT KNOW ANYTHING. First, if a horse goes for $20-40k at a 2YO in training... you're wrong, he generally can't run. Second, I don't need a lecture on how much to save for this venture, I had done the math prior to the investment, and I was trying to put some color on how much it REALLY costs. Finally, if you could tell SOOOOOOO much about a 2YO in training, why did the most expensive 2YO in training purchase JUST RETIRE AS A TRULY TERRIBLE MAIDEN!!!!!

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

In Morty's absense I can think of no better time to quote him......




HOLY MOTHER OF GOD!

Another solid entry for P.O.T.Y... thank you Andy for some sanity with this

[GBBob]

Originally Posted by philcski

Okay. I'm trying to help you out here and you go Little Miss can't be wrong on me. Let's get something straight. YOU DONT KNOW ANYTHING. First, if a horse goes for $20-40k at a 2YO in training... you're wrong, he generally can't run. Second, I don't need a lecture on how much to save for this venture, I had done the math prior to the investment, and I was trying to put some color on how much it REALLY costs. Finally, if you could tell SOOOOOOO much about a 2YO in training, why did the most expensive 2YO in training purchase JUST RETIRE AS A TRULY TERRIBLE MAIDEN!!!!!



Another solid entry for P.O.T.Y... thank you Andy for some sanity with this

It's actually an interesting conversation to have, and there are several on this board that I would like to hear their opinions on concerning Yearlings vs 2 Years IT, etc..but today doesn't seem to be the right day for this.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by philcski

Okay. I'm trying to help you out here and you go Little Miss can't be wrong on me. Let's get something straight. YOU DONT KNOW ANYTHING. First, if a horse goes for $20-40k at a 2YO in training... you're wrong, he generally can't run. Second, I don't need a lecture on how much to save for this venture, I had done the math prior to the investment, and I was trying to put some color on how much it REALLY costs. Finally, if you could tell SOOOOOOO much about a 2YO in training, why did the most expensive 2YO in training purchase JUST RETIRE AS A TRULY TERRIBLE MAIDEN!!!!!



Another solid entry for P.O.T.Y... thank you Andy for some sanity with this

I don't know anything.

There are quite a few horses in this price range from OBS April sales that went on to be good racehorses, and at least earned back their purchase price or better.

I didn't think that the Green Monkey's workout was great. I couldn't understand the hype. He crossfired all the way down the stretch in his workout. Big no-no.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

I don't know anything.

There are quite a few horses in this price range from OBS April sales that went on to be good racehorses, and at least earned back their purchase price or better.

I didn't think that the Green Monkey's workout was great. I couldn't understand the hype. He crossfired all the way down the stretch in his workout. Big no-no.

And there were far more that didn't. Have we really come to redboarding sales results?

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

And there were far more that didn't. Have we really come to redboarding sales results?

Not redboarding. I have been following one under 40,000 from last year's OBS April sale before she entered her first race. I just don't post my sales lists because I have been told not to.

You can look up a post from last year about the best first crop sires at the sales last year before there babies started racing if you think that I am redboarding.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

Not redboarding. I have been following one under 40,000 from last year's OBS April sale before she entered her first race. I just don't post my sales lists because I have been told not to.

You can look up a post from last year about the best first crop sires at the sales last year before there babies started racing if you think that I am redboarding.

Glad to know we are basing this on a sample size of 1. Here I was getting worried it wouldn't be statistically significant.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Glad to know we are basing this on a sample size of 1. Here I was getting worried it wouldn't be statistically significant.

There are a lot more than that. The point is, you have to be able to find them. I'm not going to pull out the names.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

I don't know anything.

There are quite a few horses in this price range from OBS April sales that went on to be good racehorses, and at least earned back their purchase price or better.

I didn't think that the Green Monkey's workout was great. I couldn't understand the hype. He crossfired all the way down the stretch in his workout. Big no-no.

Any idea when you will get around to analyzing the action of the Derby contenders this year vs. their two year old in training works?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

I don't know anything.

There are quite a few horses in this price range from OBS April sales that went on to be good racehorses, and at least earned back their purchase price or better.

I didn't think that the Green Monkey's workout was great. I couldn't understand the hype. He crossfired all the way down the stretch in his workout. Big no-no.

You're full of sh!t for saying that, you probably wet your pants when you saw the work. I saw it and even to my "non-expert" eye it looked good.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by philcski

You're full of sh!t for saying that, you probably wet your pants when you saw the work. I saw it and even to my "non-expert" eye it looked good.

Do you know what cross-firing is? If not, then you would have thought the workout was good...

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

Do you know what cross-firing is? If not, then you would have thought the workout was good...

She's done enough...

[blackthroatedwind]

You know, I always wondered that if a little knowledge is a dangerous thing then what is no knowledge whatsoever.

Now I know.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

Do you know what cross-firing is? If not, then you would have thought the workout was good...

YES... and you are making yourself look like even MORE of an phony by saying that. Cross firing ISNT EVEN POSSIBLE WHEN IN A FULL STRAIGHTLINE RUN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by philcski

YES... and you are making yourself look like even MORE of an phony by saying that. Cross firing ISNT EVEN POSSIBLE WHEN IN A FULL STRAIGHTLINE RUN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

They cross-fire while running in a straight line.

Cross-firing in horse racing terms, not show horse terms, is when a horse is on one lead in the front and a different lead in the rear while galloping.

In the Green Monkey's case, he was on his right lead up front and on his left lead behind.

In show horse terms, he call it cross-cantering.