Why all the hate for the 3 yr olds???

[King Glorious]

The Fountain of Youth makes me think even less of this group now than I did when I woke up this morning.

[Danzig]

only february king...give em time...

cause it looks like they need lots of it!!!

no, seriously....it is still too early to tell.

[King Glorious]

Maybe you need more time. I don't. Slow is slow.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Maybe you need more time. I don't. Slow is slow.

The time doesn't add up. The first two finishers are nice horses and even the third horse ran OK. They aren't world beaters at this point but it's still pretty early.

Cool Coal Man is certainly a good second fiddle to War Pass.

[The Bid]

3 year old score board

Nick Zito 2
The Rest of America 0

This after 4 innings

[fpsoxfan]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

The Fountain of Youth makes me think even less of this group now than I did when I woke up this morning.

Are you saying this because the horses you are picking are not running up to your expectations? Or are you just unhappy with the entire crop?

The last I knew, the Derby is still being run on May 3. There is a lot of time between now and then. Out of the 21 years I've been following this sport, I've heard these same complaints in probably 7 out of the last 10 years. People neeed to freaking relax and let the events unfold as they may. Maybe it will turn out to be a lously crop, maybe it won't, but either way it will still be a lot of fun on May 3rd.

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan

Are you saying this because the horses you are picking are not running up to your expectations? Or are you just unhappy with the entire crop?

The last I knew, the Derby is still being run on May 3. There is a lot of time between now and then. Out of the 21 years I've been following this sport, I've heard these same complaints in probably 7 out of the last 10 years. People neeed to freaking relax and let the events unfold as they may. Maybe it will turn out to be a lously crop, maybe it won't, but either way it will still be a lot of fun on May 3rd.

I think everybody is comparing this year to last, last year was the best in twenty years. War Pass had little more than a public workout today, would have been nice if he ran in the FOY. Lot's of races until the first Saturday in May. Bottom line.....are we cashing tickets in these preps. Not today for myself.

[pick4]

Originally Posted by Hickory Hill Hoff

I think everybody is comparing this year to last, last year was the best in twenty years. War Pass had little more than a public workout today, would have been nice if he ran in the FOY. Lot's of races until the first Saturday in May. Bottom line.....are we cashing tickets in these preps. Not today for myself.

Comparing this year to last year is a huge trap. I know it happens all the time but as it's a bad way of looking at these races. When looking at the movies who are candidates for the Oscars do they compare against prior years or do they judge each movie with the candidates in the select few.

You're absolutely right about War Pass and even though he might have distance limitation questions to answer, those will be answered in the next ten weeks. In my opinion making rash judgements off of one prep race especially ten weeks from Derby Day is not wise.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

lets face it.. war pass though not tested with 18 horses is just much better than most..now that bieng said..there is alot to be done and to be seen in this years crop ..he could be injured or just tail off abit have a bad trip ect. the reality to me is that the tc is just about a perfect recipe for an unatainable goal..pyro is a good horse and there is new ones getting tuned up for that day,,the derby,, the one real goal of every trainer.. the tc is just an afterthought..the crop as a whole cant really be judged as bad or good . a few standouts to this point..but damn its early.. giacamo.. nuff said..

[wac]

I hope some of you are right and that things will get better as we get further along. It is true that there is a long way till KD134 and derby day will still be fun Lord willing. I hope that the rest of the preps are a little more satisfying.
For those of you that backed "man" congrats and good pick.

[ELA]

Does this year's crop look "weak" so to speak? Relatively speaking, yeah, I would kind of agree with that. I think the "weakness" is exacerbated by a variety of things, but I also think it's still a bit early.

Between now and the next wave of preps -- a colt, on or off the radar, could turn the corner and step up. They all mature differently and nobody is going to get their colt to peak sooner than the Derby (at least not on purpose).

Once again, Zito is looking strong. There is a lot of depth in that barn. He certainly knows how to get horses to the big dance and he does it with a lot less firepower than most of the other big names (Pletcher, Baffert, etc.).

Anyway, I guess we will soon see how weak this crop really is.

Eric

[JJP]

I'm going to hold off on ripping the FOY because I'm suspicious of the teletimer at GP. That 25 and change opening Q looks very suspicious.

[fpsoxfan]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

lets face it.. war pass though not tested with 18 horses is just much better than most..now that bieng said..there is alot to be done and to be seen in this years crop ..he could be injured or just tail off abit have a bad trip ect. the reality to me is that the tc is just about a perfect recipe for an unatainable goal..pyro is a good horse and there is new ones getting tuned up for that day,,the derby,, the one real goal of every trainer.. the tc is just an afterthought..the crop as a whole cant really be judged as bad or good . a few standouts to this point..but damn its early.. giacamo.. nuff said..

Very well said Hooves. These are very young animals who are growing and maturing every day. I just went through each derby starting in 1988 and it's amazing to see the different trends. There were years where the derby hype did not live up to how the derby was run (Ex. 1992 - Arazi) and vica-versca (War Emblem - 2002 Overlooked and nearly goes on the win the Triple Crown) During that time span we had a less than full starting gate(Ex. 1997
Silver Charm - 13 starters) Now granted, the number of starters does not determine how good or bad a year is. In general, I think I've seen leaner years than this. Let's just sit back and enjoy the remaining prep races and see what happens.

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan

Very well said Hooves. These are very young animals who are growing and maturing every day. I just went through each derby starting in 1988 and it's amazing to see the different trends. There were years where the derby hype did not live up to how the derby was run (Ex. 1992 - Arazi) and vica-versca (War Emblem - 2002 Overlooked and nearly goes on the win the Triple Crown) During that time span we had a less than full starting gate(Ex. 1997
Silver Charm - 13 starters) Now granted, the number of starters does not determine how good or bad a year is. In general, I think I've seen leaner years than this. Let's just sit back and enjoy the remaining prep races and see what happens.

Rough going back to work today with a week off and all that

[pick4]

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan

Are you saying this because the horses you are picking are not running up to your expectations? Or are you just unhappy with the entire crop?

The last I knew, the Derby is still being run on May 3. There is a lot of time between now and then. Out of the 21 years I've been following this sport, I've heard these same complaints in probably 7 out of the last 10 years. People neeed to freaking relax and let the events unfold as they may. Maybe it will turn out to be a lously crop, maybe it won't, but either way it will still be a lot of fun on May 3rd.

It's the same thing every single year for the past 8 years. They all stink until the Kentucky Derby and then you have a few that emerge from the Derby to run well in the next two legs of the TC. Most of the Derby Trail contenders who fail to make the mix are never heard from again. The survivors might run a few times in the fall and then are rushed off to the farm to cover mares.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan

Are you saying this because the horses you are picking are not running up to your expectations? Or are you just unhappy with the entire crop?

The last I knew, the Derby is still being run on May 3. There is a lot of time between now and then. Out of the 21 years I've been following this sport, I've heard these same complaints in probably 7 out of the last 10 years. People neeed to freaking relax and let the events unfold as they may. Maybe it will turn out to be a lously crop, maybe it won't, but either way it will still be a lot of fun on May 3rd.

Exactly the opposite. The ones I picked have run to my expectations. I said after the BC that War Pass was light years ahead of this group and I didn't see anything yesterday to change my mind. After watching him win in Northern California, I was on the El Gato Malo wagon and he came down south and crushed. Indian Blessing is 2-2 this year. The rest of the 3yo's, I've felt like they were bad and other than Pyro showing me a little more than I expected, they've all run bad.

I also thought last year's group was weak after you go past Curlin. I think people make the mistake of seeing consistent averageness (so what if that's not a word) and thinking it's better than it actually is. Hard Spun was a nice horse, no doubt. But if you look back over the past 20 years, he probably wouldn't rank in the top 50 3yo's. Street Sense might make the top 20. Maybe. Any Given Saturday wouldn't crack the top 50 either. Tiago and Grasshopper wouldn't crack the top 100. Don't mistake competitive racing with good racing. The upcoming SA Hcp could turn out to be the most competitive race in history. All 14 come finish within two lengths of each other and there could be a triple dead-heat for the win. But that doesn't mean that the quality of the horses running is in line with what the past history of that race has produced. There is a difference.

[JJP]

How can one put Curlin decidedly ahead of Street Sense? Street Sense beat him fair and square in the Derby and Curlin beat him by about 1 inch in the Preakness. So Curlin whipped him in the Breeder's Cup over the Monmouth ocean. I don't think one can draw too many conclusions about that race other than Curlin likes slop much better than Street Sense, who didn't seem to like slop when he ran in the Arl-Wash Futurity.

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by JJP

How can one put Curlin decidedly ahead of Street Sense? Street Sense beat him fair and square in the Derby and Curlin beat him by about 1 inch in the Preakness. So Curlin whipped him in the Breeder's Cup over the Monmouth ocean. I don't think one can draw too many conclusions about that race other than Curlin likes slop much better than Street Sense, who didn't seem to like slop when he ran in the Arl-Wash Futurity.

Curlin is waaaay ahead of Street Sense. If you are a Street Sense guy, you should be concerned if Hard Spun is ahead of Steet Sense too.

Hard Spun only very slightly less impressive than Street Sense in the Derby.
Hard Spun not as impressive as Street Sense in the Preakness, thanks Mario.
Hard Spun's 4th in the Belmont more impressive than Street Sense watching, thanks Go-Go.
Hard Spun's 2nd in the Haskell, after carving out 110 3/5 off of a 2 month layoff, beating Curlin in the process, more impressive than Street Sense beating CP West in the Jim Dandy.
Hard Spun and Steet Sense both impressive on Travers Day in their own respect.
Hard Spun only very slightly more impressive than Steet Sense in the Kentucky Cup Classic.
Hard Spun more impressive on Breeders Cup Day.

While I am an admitted Hard Spun fan, I find his 3YO road to be every bit as accomplished as Street Sense.

[JJP]

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

Curlin is waaaay ahead of Street Sense. If you are a Street Sense guy, you should be concerned if Hard Spun is ahead of Steet Sense too.

Hard Spun only very slightly less impressive than Street Sense in the Derby.
Hard Spun not as impressive as Street Sense in the Preakness, thanks Mario.
Hard Spun's 4th in the Belmont more impressive than Street Sense watching, thanks Go-Go.
Hard Spun's 2nd in the Haskell, after carving out 110 3/5 off of a 2 month layoff, beating Curlin in the process, more impressive than Street Sense beating CP West in the Jim Dandy.
Hard Spun and Steet Sense both impressive on Travers Day in their own respect.
Hard Spun only very slightly more impressive than Steet Sense in the Kentucky Cup Classic.
Hard Spun more impressive on Breeders Cup Day.

While I am an admitted Hard Spun fan, I find his 3YO road to be every bit as accomplished as Street Sense.

I'm not sure where to start, but you are way off.

I disagree Hard Spun's 2nd in the Haskell is more impressive than Street Sense's Jim Dandy win. Hard Spun was running over a speed favoring Monmouth surface and Any Given Saturday buried him while Street Sense had to overcome a lone speed/slow pace in both his Saratoga races to win. And IMO, Street Sense was more impressive in the KY Cup, given that Hard Spun had the race handed to him on a silver platter as total lone speed, and he still was all out to win. The sea of slop on BC day made much of those results irrelevant.

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by JJP

I'm not sure where to start, but you are way off.

I disagree Hard Spun's 2nd in the Haskell is more impressive than Street Sense's Jim Dandy win. Hard Spun was running over a speed favoring Monmouth surface and Any Given Saturday buried him while Street Sense had to overcome a lone speed/slow pace in both his Saratoga races to win. And IMO, Street Sense was more impressive in the KY Cup, given that Hard Spun had the race handed to him on a silver platter as total lone speed, and he still was all out to win. The sea of slop on BC day made much of those results irrelevant.

Any Given Saturday was coming off of a good prep in the Dwyer, while Hard Spun was coming back from his 2 month hiatus after running in ALL 3 TC events, and sat in a perfect spot as Hard Spun and Cable Boy went at it. Any Given Saturday couldn't hold Hard Spun's jock.

Your recollection of the Jim Dandy is strange as CP West went at it with something called Flashstorm through fractions of 23 2/5 and 47. I'd hardly call that lone speed/slow pace. Street Sense beat CP West by 2 hard fought lengths.

Please watch the Kentucky Cup again and tell me what you see because I see them both being asked, but neither ALL OUT. I think Street Sense would have a tough time beating Hard Spun in a match race, he could never keep up.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1pflXyCer9o

I just do not feel there is a big difference between the 2 that one should be in the top 25 (the rail skimming everyone out of my way winner of the Kentucky Derby) and the carve out the fractions, gut it out horse that was raced at distances that didn't give him the optimum chance to win is not.