2/24 (GP): Fountain of Youth (Gr. II)

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

The winner may need the graded earnings to get in so may be cranked up to peak for this effort to assure they get the earnings. Court Vision already has the earnings so they can take it easier with him and work towards a peak performance on Derby Day. Personally I think Court Vision will lose because he's too slow, not because he isn't cranked up but the more excuses I can give for the horse the more likely people are to continue burning money on him this year.

That will be me, probably. LOL

[Indian Charlie]

if adriano at all takes to dirt, and he's bred much better for dirt racing than turf racing, this race is over.

his 2nd dam was the very nice theatrical mare golden treat, who couldnt run a step on turf, but did manage to set a track record for 4.5 furlongs on dirt and later won the santa anita oaks. golden treat herself is also a half sister to the greatly under appreciated bet twice.

his last race was spectacular, so either he just really loved the gp turf, or he has matured and developed.

my only question is why were they running this horse on turf in the first place?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

my only question is why were they running this horse on turf in the first place?

The usual reason.....he sucks on the dirt.

[Indian Charlie]

based on what BTW?

he debuted on turf as a pretty early season 2yo. and if he sucks on dirt, why the placement of him here, instead of aiming him for all the turf races and a likely turf eclipse award?

those ap indy - mr p mare crosses sure seem okay on dirt to me, and this horse has no turf breeding in him at all.

it seems pretty far fetched to say he sucks on dirt at this point.

He'll have to be a super horse to win from that post AND have Eddie Castro on his back.

[Indian Charlie]

yeah, the post is a concern, but this field is so awful, i actually think court vision and monba look like standouts (minus adriano). i think both of those are pretty weak at that, so my perhaps wishful thinking says he can overcome his post based on being superior.

as for the jock, well, i think they are all liabilities. anyone not named gomez at this point seems to be a cancer.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

this field is so awful, i actually think court vision and monba look like standouts (minus adriano).

I don't think this field looks awful at all. There are no sure-fire standouts to be sure, but there are a number of horses who are coming off fairly nice races in their last starts.
Cool Coal Man, Kentucky Bear, Anak Nakal, Elysium Fields, and Make the Point are all coming off decent wins. For a race like the Fountain of Youth, I don't think this is a terrible field.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

He'll have to be a super horse to win from that post AND have Eddie Castro on his back.

Agreed.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

based on what BTW?

he debuted on turf as a pretty early season 2yo. and if he sucks on dirt, why the placement of him here, instead of aiming him for all the turf races and a likely turf eclipse award?

those ap indy - mr p mare crosses sure seem okay on dirt to me, and this horse has no turf breeding in him at all.

it seems pretty far fetched to say he sucks on dirt at this point.

It seems pretty far fetched that he's good on the dirt actually.

Trainers run horses on the turf, unless they have exceptional turf breeding and no dirt breeding, because they are too slow to run competitively on the dirt. The opportunities and financial upside in dirt racing FAR outweighs turf racing in this country. For this reason, trainers will rarely run on the turf first out unless they are fairly certain the horse has no affinity for the dirt. Sometimes they will try once, see Cowboy Cal, but once their opinion has been confirmed they will go the grass. It is very rare that a horse that begins its career on the turf will run well on the dirt in subsequent starts. Occasionally at trainer will use a turf start as a prep, but clearly this isn't the case for Adrianno.

There are no absolutes in this game but over my lifetime of playing horses I have benefited greatly from tossing horses like Adrianno who are bet on the dirt based on grass races. These horses bomb way more often than not.

[blackthroatedwind]

Of course, now seeing that you like Monba, not to mention Court Vision, I see you are completely confused.

Monba, in my opinion, is the very essense of the emperor's new clothes. Where the phuck is his good race? If he was trained by Joe Nobody, and not Pletcher, he would be 15-1.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Of course, now seeing that you like Monba, not to mention Court Vision, I see you are completely confused.

Monba, in my opinion, is the very essense of the emperor's new clothes. Where the phuck is his good race? If he was trained by Joe Nobody, and not Pletcher, he would be 15-1.

actually, no, i dont like either of them. i think both court vision and monba have very little talent and are virtual no hopes for the triple crown races.

my point in saying they looked like standouts in that race (minus adriano) is that the rest of the field looked like even bigger garbage.

cool coal man looks pretty bad as does golden spikes.

i find kentucky bear quite interesting, but it isn't the most favorable spot for a horse coming off it's debut, is it?

z humor? ick

ready set looks awful.

anak nakal has the potential to win this, but i just don't get the hype on this horse. he looks worse than court vision, but who knows.

the sniper horse, elysium fields, does nothing for me at this point, though he does have some upside.

halo najib? another horse with some hype that doesn't seem well founded to me.

make the point is a big question mark to me, but i dont like the breeding for this distance. i suppose i should watch a race of his though before i condemn him.

i can think of a few horses that debuted on turf and ended up doing okay on dirt, but most horses that do debut on turf are bred for it, so it's not that surprising to me that most don't make a successful transition.

[VOL JACK]

[quote=blackthroatedwind]The usual reason.....he sucks on the dirt.

I would disagree. I think that Motion is a trainer that puts everything on the turf first, then if they don't handle it, use the dirt as the back up surface.
Afterall, he does train his horses on the Tapeta at Fair Hill. When horses work good on the synthetic, trainers automatically assume they want the turf.
Bottom line is that G. Motion is a turf trainer; and imo as good of a horseman as we have in the game.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

I would disagree. I think that Motion is a trainer that puts everything on the turf first, then if they don't handle it, use the dirt as the back up surface.
Afterall, he does train his horses on the Tapeta at Fair Hill. When horses work good on the synthetic, trainers automatically assume they want the turf.
Bottom line is that G. Motion is a turf trainer; and imo as good of a horseman as we have in the game.

Graham Motion is a very good trainer.....and apparently not an idiot. He would have run this horse on the dirt if he felt it liked the surface. He runs plenty of horses, including 2YOs, on the dirt.

[bogeydaman]

[quote=Indian Charlie]if adriano at all takes to dirt, and he's bred much better for dirt racing than turf racing, this race is over.QUOTE]

[quote=cool coal man looks pretty bad as does golden spikes.QUOTE]

IMO the larger issue (not that the turf/dirt question is inconsequential) is the post. Out of 18 2 turn races on the dirt at GP this meet, 17 have been won from the 1 through 4 posts (12 (66%) by the 1 and 2 alone). I wouldn't touch this horse at 40-1.

Might also want reconsider Cool Coal man and Golden Spikes who both look to sit perfect trips from the inside.