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  #1  
Old 02-18-2008, 11:11 PM
wac wac is offline
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Thanks pgardn, i know its a long way till KD but i would like to have something to get excited about as we get closer. I have future bets on blackberry road, colonel john, dennis of cork, monba and zhumor. not looking that good but you never know it sure makes watching the races more exciting.
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  #2  
Old 02-19-2008, 12:38 AM
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miraja2 miraja2 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Here's the replay in case you haven't seen it yet. he ran a good race. If he can continue to improve he's got a good shot IMO.

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2008/videos/579
I guess he probably does have a good shot, because....well because....this crop STILL doesn't appear to be particulary deep or strong at this point.
But for a horse with his style - and given the pace of the race, and the trip he had - it didn't look to me like he was moving very fast down the stretch. What was his time for final 1/4? It couldn't have been particularly fast.
The horse on the lead was completely cooked, and while Denis went by him, he didn't seem to have a lot left.
I really don't know what to think of any of these 3yos. Who knows...maybe the colt from Peru will win this year's Kentucky Derby.
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  #3  
Old 02-19-2008, 01:54 AM
horseofcourse horseofcourse is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by miraja2
I guess he probably does have a good shot, because....well because....this crop STILL doesn't appear to be particulary deep or strong at this point.
But for a horse with his style - and given the pace of the race, and the trip he had - it didn't look to me like he was moving very fast down the stretch. What was his time for final 1/4? It couldn't have been particularly fast.
The horse on the lead was completely cooked, and while Denis went by him, he didn't seem to have a lot left.
I really don't know what to think of any of these 3yos. Who knows...maybe the colt from Peru will win this year's Kentucky Derby.

I don't know what his final quarter was. You guys can figure it out I guess. 6f was run in 1:10.83 and the final time was 1:37.59. Denis of Cork was 9 lengths back at the 6f mark. So those that know how to figure that out can figure out how fast he ran his final quarter. In my opinion, I thought his race was every bit as impressive as Pyro in the Risen Star...and most likely more so.
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Old 02-19-2008, 02:25 AM
TitanSooner TitanSooner is offline
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24 and 4/5
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  #5  
Old 02-19-2008, 05:17 AM
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free25 free25 is offline
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Officially, this is my derby horse.... I love small stables like Dave Caroll who can pay attention to their horses. In my humble opinion, this is why Todd Pletcher has struggled in the big ones. Love him, but attention to detail rules in training......
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  #6  
Old 02-19-2008, 09:54 PM
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King Glorious King Glorious is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by horseofcourse
I don't know what his final quarter was. You guys can figure it out I guess. 6f was run in 1:10.83 and the final time was 1:37.59. Denis of Cork was 9 lengths back at the 6f mark. So those that know how to figure that out can figure out how fast he ran his final quarter. In my opinion, I thought his race was every bit as impressive as Pyro in the Risen Star...and most likely more so.
I use .16 per beaten length and using that as a guide, I get his final quarter in 25.32

I'm almost positive that I can walk it that fast.
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Old 02-19-2008, 10:00 PM
SniperSB23 SniperSB23 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by King Glorious
I use .16 per beaten length and using that as a guide, I get his final quarter in 25.32

I'm almost positive that I can walk it that fast.
You should be a race horse then since the horse you have as the 4th best since 1986 finished the exact same race in 26 1/5.
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  #8  
Old 02-19-2008, 10:20 PM
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King Glorious King Glorious is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SniperSB23
You should be a race horse then since the horse you have as the 4th best since 1986 finished the exact same race in 26 1/5.
The 2004 Southwest was run in 2004. The 2008 edition was just run a few days ago. I'm not sure at all what one has to do with the other? Did they run the same opening fractions? Did they run against the same kind of competition? Were the riders of both asking them the same question down the lane? Also, whether or not Smarty ran it in 26 1/5 or 35 1/5 is beside the point. All that you are point out is that both of them finished in slow time. Smarty's time doesn't make Dennis' fast.
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  #9  
Old 02-19-2008, 10:24 PM
SniperSB23 SniperSB23 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by King Glorious
The 2004 Southwest was run in 2004. The 2008 edition was just run a few days ago. I'm not sure at all what one has to do with the other? Did they run the same opening fractions? Did they run against the same kind of competition? Were the riders of both asking them the same question down the lane? Also, whether or not Smarty ran it in 26 1/5 or 35 1/5 is beside the point. All that you are point out is that both of them finished in slow time. Smarty's time doesn't make Dennis' fast.
Smarty got a 95 Beyer and Denis a 96. Smarty's time was a hair quicker so the track was actually a little faster that day if at all different. Check out the closing fractions of every Southwest. They are all slower than that. Lawyer Ron finished in 26 2/5. Using the closing fractions at Oaklawn as if they are conventional fractions is pointless when, as Steve pointed out, the stretch is uphill.
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  #10  
Old 02-19-2008, 10:43 PM
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Oaklawnfan Oaklawnfan is offline
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"Now the east coast handicappers really dig those picks they share, but the Southern boys down in the Natural State have the winners comin' out of no where." "I 've spent a lot of time tryin' to make my picks but I just can't seem to decide" "I guess I'll just get on back to my racing form and let the other posters help me this time. I wish they all could be Derby Trailer's, I wish they could all be Derby Trailer's, I wish they all could be Derby Trailers who shine.

While I don't want any California contenders, this is to the tune of :California Girls."

Thankya, thankya very much.
This either breaks my maiden, or gets me thrown out.
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  #11  
Old 02-19-2008, 11:45 AM
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Oaklawnfan Oaklawnfan is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
I had a little different take on the race. I thought it was interesting how he was an up close 4th early. As the leader blazed on, Denis of Cork began dropping back outside of horses. Launched his bid wide and appeared to me at least that he was tons the best. I thought the run he put in from the far turn home was quite impressive and he has now handled 3 different tracks, including Churchill. Maybe I'm grasping for a contender also, but a lot of people were real down on him after the allowance win and he crushed the field yesterday. he at least appears to be improving, which at this point is a very good sign.
I loved this horse from the begining, partly because of the regional connections and the story behind his name. His impressive two previous wins and now this one makes you want to jump on his bandwagon early. I am curious to see if they run him back in the Rebel, and who will ship in to go against him.
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  #12  
Old 02-19-2008, 01:01 PM
Danzig Danzig is offline
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golden yank is supposed to make his three year old debut in the rebel. there's been a lot of buzz about him, so i'm anxious to see if it's warranted.
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