The case for why Pyro is the most likely Derby winner right now

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by justindew

I don't have their PPs handy, but I don't think Lion Heart or Hard Spun ever ran as fast early and won routing as War Pass did in his last two starts.

Also, it seems that people are quicker to predict that War Pass will have trouble routing than they normally would be with a son of Cheroke Run. Really, is the bredding THAT terrible?

I'm starting to warm up to this whole War Pass idea.

Of course they didn't...I was just stating they got loose on the lead in the KY Derby.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

Of course they didn't...I was just stating they got loose on the lead in the KY Derby.

I wasn't arguing with you.

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by justindew

I wasn't arguing with you.

...sorry. I like to argue on these!!

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

Of course they didn't...I was just stating they got loose on the lead in the KY Derby.

Hard Spun had a 1 length lead after a half....though that was mostly due to Stormello being spun about 5 or 6 wide on the first turn while Kent D. had a full nelson on him.

War Pass will come into the race much more feared than Hard Spun did - and in last years race...Kent very likely doesn't put Stormello to hard rating.

Hard Spun was 7-5-2-0 lifetime when he made the lead after the first call - his only two losses a 2nd in the KY Derby and a 2nd in the BC Classic.

He had a BIG stamina pedigree - and never seemed relaxed at all unless he made the lead.

[Linny]

Hard Spun was 7-5-2-0 lifetime when he made the lead after the first call - his only two losses a 2nd in the KY Derby and a 2nd in the BC Classic.

[/quote]

What? I'd have to check but at Derby time I though HS had one loss, at Oaklawn. If you are talking Classic, by then he'd lost the Derby, Preakness, Belmont and Haskell.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I said when he made the lead at the first call.

He didn't make the lead at the first call in several races - The Southwest, The Preakness, The Belmont, The Haskel, The Lane's End, his sprint win in the King's Bishop

[Bobby Fischer]

1. war pass isn't even a consideration for winning the derby. Come on guys. I put him on my vulture list the second he staggered in the lane that time.
A sprinter breed, who runs like a sprinter... wins some 8.5 furlong races and you think he gets 10 furlongs in a 15 horse+ field? WTF? Is anyone who considers themselves beyond a "fan" actually touting warpass? War Pass will be lucky if he wins his 9 furlong prep(s).


2. Beyers have nothing to do with the kentucky derby. Speed figures in general are going to mislead you in comparison with visually evaluating a horse and a race. The only good a speed figure does is when they give a bad horse a big number , or a good horse a low number.

3. Pyro is one of many who at this time have a chance to compete for the roses. It is very early. His risen star was good in that it allowed him to carry form forward. He showed that he can gallop for 7 or 8 furlongs and then sprint home. He showed that he is in shape and has a kick, and the fairgrounds stretch distance isn't going to make him flatten out. Churchill is nearly as long as fair grounds. It was the type of form that wins the derby lately, which tends to have a horse carry the speed or emerge to the top of the stretch and then another (winner) run by in the lane. Pyro is a little bit small but he is very well proportioned. The final time for the risen star was OBVIOUSLY sub maximal for pyro.- Pyro could have obviously ran a faster final time had the jockey asked him sooner, but the purse money and record goes to the horse who beats zfortune, and not to the horse who runs faster than some girl ran a totally unrelated race that happened to be the same day and distance. It is foolish to say "slow race" blah blah blah without looking at the performance of the specific animal as an individual, outside the context of his opponents. You can not draw conclusions with a track variant and a final time from a silverbulletday and a risen star. To even suggest that Indian Blessing ran a better race is misleading and incorrect. Final time and beyers mean sooooooooo much less than than style and form and the manner in which the race was run.

All you can say now is that pyro looks like he could compete in the derby if he isn't a victim of a bad trip.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

a bunch of nonsense

There needs to be like a message board farm system.....

Like a place where we can send posters who've lost their fastball or never had one to start with.

Did we pick up The Fish and The Fat Man from a prison swap with Pace Advantge or something?

If so, who did we have to give up?

Unless DT gave up DisappearingDan and Merasmag - I think this board took the worst of that trade.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

There needs to be like a message board farm system.....

Like a place where we can send posters who've lost their fastball or never had one to start with.

Did we pick up The Fish and The Fat Man from a prison swap with Pace Advantge or something?

If so, who did we have to give up?

Unless DT gave up DisappearingDan and Merasmag - I think this board took the worst of that trade.

Outside of taking an incredible amount of time and space to state the obvious in your posts ---gee, I'm always enlightened by you-- you, also, apparently, have your HEAD deep UP YOUR ASS, in lumping me with the idiot Fischer.

Interestingly, after you got your ASS KICKED royally at SAR on that site of yours--what was it, ZERO for the 1st 2 1/2 weeks? --- with some of the most ridiculous plays I've ever witnessed, I mean, really, Drugs, ZERO winners for HALF the MEET, you're still around trying to educate others. You willl never live that one down.

What is it really, DOOFUS, the fact that I was on Curlin before you?

[King Glorious]

The case for why Pyro is NOT the most likely Derby winner right now:

1. He can't beat War Pass. He's 0-3 under three different distances, surfaces, and tracks.

Numerous e-lawsuits will be filed because of this thread.

[Scurlogue Champ]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

There needs to be like a message board farm system.....

Like a place where we can send posters who've lost their fastball or never had one to start with.

Did we pick up The Fish and The Fat Man from a prison swap with Pace Advantge or something?

If so, who did we have to give up?

Unless DT gave up DisappearingDan and Merasmag - I think this board took the worst of that trade.

Wow, that is an A+ post if I have ever seen one.

Regardless of my feelings, the above is a 98 mph fastball with movement...

knee high

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

what was it, ZERO for the 1st 2 1/2 weeks? --- with some of the most ridiculous plays I've ever witnessed, I mean, really, Drugs, ZERO winners for HALF the MEET, you're still around trying to educate others. You willl never live that one down.

I'll bite.

That one is very easy to live down. Trust me, I've done far worse.

I was zero for ten with two scratches - which means 1st winner didn't come until racing day #13 (and second day #14)

About half of the ten were 15/1 or more...and one or two of the days instead of a horse it was a Pick 4 play.

I know you are dying to mention the first winner was a 5/2 shot - but hey, it won by 6 and it was time to try and break the duck.

I was fluke-ishly high percentage with longshot winners the previous meet ('06 BEL Fall) I did on there...just as I was in the newspaper the one PID meet. Things even out.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Scurlogue Champ

Wow, that is an A+ post if I have ever seen one.

Regardless of my feelings, the above is a 98 mph fastball with movement...

knee high

I was pretty amused, too!

--Dunbar

[cmorioles]

I also happen to think the BC Juvenile was overrated by Beyer. It was a tricky day, but I think he is about 10 points too high.

[pmacdaddy]

Have to say I think The Fat Man definitley knows his sh*t.

I would also love to get that 12-1 on War .Pass if anyone is that sure he is hopeless at a mile and a quarter.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

There needs to be like a message board farm system.....

Like a place where we can send posters who've lost their fastball or never had one to start with.

Did we pick up The Fish and The Fat Man from a prison swap with Pace Advantge or something?

If so, who did we have to give up?

Unless DT gave up DisappearingDan and Merasmag - I think this board took the worst of that trade.

Don't know that much about this FAT MAN,but we both had this Monastery Scandal picked out last time.Runs again today(I think.)I lose track once I know they are done paying well.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

1. war pass isn't even a consideration for winning the derby. Come on guys. I put him on my vulture list the second he staggered in the lane that time.
A sprinter breed, who runs like a sprinter... wins some 8.5 furlong races and you think he gets 10 furlongs in a 15 horse+ field? WTF? Is anyone who considers themselves beyond a "fan" actually touting warpass? War Pass will be lucky if he wins his 9 furlong prep(s).


2. Beyers have nothing to do with the kentucky derby. Speed figures in general are going to mislead you in comparison with visually evaluating a horse and a race. The only good a speed figure does is when they give a bad horse a big number , or a good horse a low number.

3. Pyro is one of many who at this time have a chance to compete for the roses. It is very early. His risen star was good in that it allowed him to carry form forward. He showed that he can gallop for 7 or 8 furlongs and then sprint home. He showed that he is in shape and has a kick, and the fairgrounds stretch distance isn't going to make him flatten out. Churchill is nearly as long as fair grounds. It was the type of form that wins the derby lately, which tends to have a horse carry the speed or emerge to the top of the stretch and then another (winner) run by in the lane. Pyro is a little bit small but he is very well proportioned. The final time for the risen star was OBVIOUSLY sub maximal for pyro.- Pyro could have obviously ran a faster final time had the jockey asked him sooner, but the purse money and record goes to the horse who beats zfortune, and not to the horse who runs faster than some girl ran a totally unrelated race that happened to be the same day and distance. It is foolish to say "slow race" blah blah blah without looking at the performance of the specific animal as an individual, outside the context of his opponents. You can not draw conclusions with a track variant and a final time from a silverbulletday and a risen star. To even suggest that Indian Blessing ran a better race is misleading and incorrect. Final time and beyers mean sooooooooo much less than than style and form and the manner in which the race was run.

All you can say now is that pyro looks like he could compete in the derby if he isn't a victim of a bad trip.

not necessarily. plenty of times i have seen people make a statement that a horse who won with ease could have run faster if asked. and quite often that turns out to be incorrect.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by Danzig

not necessarily. plenty of times i have seen people make a statement that a horse who won with ease could have run faster if asked. and quite often that turns out to be incorrect.

Because most people do not have that perception ability. The common mistake is when a speed horse wins in hand and the thought is he could have gone faster... However when a horse runs an exceptionally fast finish fraction, in most cases they could in fact have gone faster.

Pyro could go out in a week and best that time in the morning, if someone were to offer his connections enough money.