Derby Futures Pool 1 (2/7-10)

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by SlewsMyHero

You are taking the absolute worst of it by playing into these Churchill pools. I don't understand why they don't put all 400+ nominees as individual betting interests. Don't tell me they don't have the technology. Here's what a real future book looks like.

Courtesy of Wynn Las Vegas, updated 2/4/08.

I understand that not everyone has access to Las Vegas, but if I know I'm taking the worst of it, I stay out of the pool.

Why are we "taking the absolute worst of it"? IMO, this is severely faulty thinking.

This pool has the same takeout as any Churchill pool. When the takeout is the same, what matters is how good your information is compared to other bettors and how well you make use of that information. I would venture that many Derby Trail cappers are in a much better position to evaluate the 23 individual entries' chances than the average bettor is.

In the Derby Future Pool, you KNOW that some sizable amount of money is being bet foolishly. The fact 10's of thousands of dollars will be bet on horses running this weekend BEFORE they race is solid proof of that. That's an immediate advantage to anyone willing to wait until Sunday to bet.

The chance that some of these horses won't make it to the starting gate is just another factor that goes into an assessment of fair odds. It doesn't change the track take, which is what we are always trying to overcome.

--Dunbar