2/7 GP race 6

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Obviously Holiday trip has a chance, but I feel like he's the kind of horse you try to beat at short odds. He runs second a lot and is kind of a hanger. Except of course when I needed the runner up when he broke his maiden at Saratoga. He's had a lot of chances and just doesn't seem to win.

This is obvious. He's the male counterpart to Star Dixie. And, the race he won, he had a distinct advantage over the horse he nosed out in that he had already been a longer distance - against Bold Hawk. (There's an interesting thread about that race over at Pace Advantage.)

But all the negatives against him, he still was AHEAD on the backstretch, and finished significantly ahead of Bujagali, with a worse trip. Maybe that was a complete aberration but you can't bet him at low odds and you also can't be sure that he won't be closer than expected today, either. And, maybe Drums of Thunder doesn't get pinched today, and either sits a perfect trip or contests the pace.

So, where is Bujagali's advantage exactly?

This is just a bad race to bet.

[Bobby Fischer]

Well, Holiday Trip is scratched. So is the #5 Cant Stop Me , who figured to possibly add to the pace.

Both of these changes help Bujagali. He has a better probability to win and a better probability in the exacta than this morning lol. He also figures to go off at a LOW price.


I think with a confident ride (letting the horse run early) by Coa, there is a fair chance that with as cheap as the other speed is, Bujagali could inherit the easy lead midway on the 2NDturn with most everything else pushing and working hard to come anywhere close to even terms. Coa probably would be unwise to rate much at all here.

Tiverton also becomes more important in terms of how much mid-race pressure he applies.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Now, speaking of trips, did you catch Line of Thought's trip last time? He's in the 2nd race today.

He is a little cheap. I wonder how weak that 10k claimer that he won was. Horses like LOT don't get bet down to 2.2-1 every day. He shyed away from other horses like 5 times last race.

If you want a trip to look at consider#9 Auguri. The old guy is still better than a lot of these. Last time he was on the outside post broke well but cheap speed forced him to take it wide and cut in behind for the turn. Then he made some headway and checked slightly on the backstretch. Still challenged at the top of the lane.
Today there are 7 horses to his inside and only 5 have quickness and he gets 6 more seconds to run to the turn.

The #4 Thats an Outrage will also be tossed from a lot of exotics by simulcast players because of his jockey. Could be useful underneath.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Now, speaking of trips, did you catch Line of Thought's trip last time? He's in the 2nd race today.

I noticed that: the classic repeated JERK in combo with the LOOSE REIN. Kent D replaces Nunez today, which brings up the interesting question: whose ride was worse last out, Nunez' on LoT or Kent's on Scolara?

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

the 1 drums of thunder will run ok..

[IrishofNDMan]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

the 1 drums of thunder will run ok..

was drums of thunder on the derby trail last year?

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by IrishofNDMan

was drums of thunder on the derby trail last year?

Yes. Drums was 2nd in the Holy Bull , but hasn't finished well in a race since.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

the 1 drums of thunder will run ok..

He's interesting if, for no other reason, he's pace consideration. Half of me thinks he's a dead send from there today and that there's some chance he's going to run good. But he just doesn't look very good, despite his trouble in his last start. His work pattern isn't great either with layoff >> one work>>race>>one work>>race>>one work>>today. Hopefully, for me, he gets sent.

I think Note to Harry gets sent here for sure. Why else do you go to PAco Lopez? But who really knows if he can keep up with the 1-4 in this?

I am playing Jerome in here to win at 6-1+. He's cheap as hell but he's more likely than the others with a contending chance to get his trip with the possible exception of the chalk.

I also can't see Bujagali not running well so I'll ex box Jerome with him as well as the 12 and 13.