Derby Futures Pool 1 (2/7-10)

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Has it occured to you that Grasshopper has barely lifted his legs outside of Saratoga?

He's barely raced but I liked him long before Saratoga so he must have run well enough somewhere as a 2yo to grab my interest. I think the Travers took a lot of him and they probably brought him back a little quick in the Super Derby which led to them giving him another rest. We'll find out a lot this weekend in the Mineshaft. I think he'll roll but we'll have to wait and see. If he doesn't then your Saratoga theory has some more merit.

[blackthroatedwind]

You need to take yourself out of the equation, take a real look at his pps, and see the huge disparity between his performances at Saratoga, and elsewhere.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You need to take yourself out of the equation, take a real look at his pps, and see the huge disparity between his performances at Saratoga, and elsewhere.

He ran well to break his maiden around two turns at Churchill. His first two races back were at 6 and 7 furlongs which is hardly his optimal distance but he still managed a win and a 3rd place performance. I've already said the Super Derby was probably too quick to come back. If he runs fresh around two turns in the Mineshaft this weekend and doesn't run well then I'm with you on the Saratoga thing. Until then though I don't think we have adequate information to reach that conclusion based on 2yo form and some sprints. And besides, with the lack of G1s for older males, winning the Whitney and Woodward could be enough to win champion older male if a 3yo wins the Classic (see 2007) so there are a lot worse things than to be a Saratoga specialist.

[blackthroatedwind]

My initial comments were an exaggeration. However, his non-Saratoga races are decidedly worse than his Saratoga races and until he proves otherwise I think he is very much a bet against.