FormBlog: Weekend Beyers

[blackthroatedwind]

*T Storm (Aqu): Carolyn's Cat (K. McLaughlin/A. Garcia) - 94

*Swale (GP): Eaton's Gift (D. Romans/K. Desormeaux) - 93



If this isn't a great example of the bias on the Aqueduct Inner Dirt then I don't know what is.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I take it you concluded that Eaton's Gift wasn't bias aided?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I take it you concluded that Eaton's Gift wasn't bias aided?

Actually, his getting a 93 strengthens my theory on that surface as well. He's better than Carolyn's Cat, but she's about a 75, and he's about an 80.

[pmacdaddy]

Actually in the middle of Beyer's book so the post is very relevant to me.

If the Bias inflates Carolyn's Cat's figure, does that mean all figs from the day would be inflated?

In my mind I always looked at bias type days from a trip handicapping standpoint, but never really adjusted figures.

Maybe I'm off on how they are calculated. Guess I need to keep reading...

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by pmacdaddy

Actually in the middle of Beyer's book so the post is very relevant to me.

If the Bias inflates Carolyn's Cat's figure, does that mean all figs from the day would be inflated?

In my mind I always looked at bias type days from a trip handicapping standpoint, but never really adjusted figures.

Maybe I'm off on how they are calculated. Guess I need to keep reading...

Andy or DrugS will be able to answer your question much better in terms of adjusting the figs. But to put Thursday in perspective, there was one off the pace winner, Rizzi's Twist, who got an 81 and won because they went psychotically fast early and collapsed late. Then there was Rodman who split foes in the stretch and won going away at first asking and also got an 81. The only other race that was won by a horse from a bit far back was My Anna Rose who towered over a scratch-reduced field.

What you can garner from all of this is that Rodman's maiden win was solid, at least in my opinion and that Carolyn's Cat got a high figure because the only other 6f race that could have been fast was not. The N1X that Rizzi's Twist won went:

22.5 45.64 58.31 71.38

Carolyn went:

22.96 46.75 58.35 70.52

Rodman went:

23.18 47.06 59.44 71.43

Sorry if I clogged up a useful thread with boring Aqueduct Thursday stuff.

NT

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Actually, his getting a 93 strengthens my theory on that surface as well. He's better than Carolyn's Cat, but she's about a 75, and he's about an 80.

But Doesn't the 60/1 McShell horse, off a Tampa drubbing, who closed wide from out of it to get 2nd not weaken your theory?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

But Doesn't the 60/1 McShell horse, off a Tampa drubbing, who closed wide from out of it to get 2nd not weaken your theory?

Not particularly. A lot of horses that lose by as much as he did finish 7th. How much did he lose by?

It wasn't a souped up rail like you get in NY on some days but it feels like an advantageous place to be. However, I would probably have to look harder at the races to have a real opinion. It was probably stronger on Friday.

To be honest, I am much more in tune with the track in NY. Probably because I'm lazy and it's simpler.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

3.5 lengths.