Monday Gulftstream 1 bet

[Duvalier]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The Fat Man is generous with his knowledge and has a terrific opinion. I think we can all learn a lot from him.

Hope so...I know the fat man is a solid handicapper...just don't see a reason to belittle someone who is obviously newer to the sport.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Duvalier

Hope so...I know the fat man is a solid handicapper...just don't see a reason to belittle someone who is obviously newer to the sport.

Well, maybe that poster is new and maybe not, but it's the ultimate democracy on the internet, and if you want to post you are open to responses.

You can say the Fat Man was belittling him, but you could also say that he was educating him, and if that poster took the latter approach he would learn a lot in a very short period of time.

And, if that poster is new to the game, and wants to stick around, he better learn to take a beating, because this game will give you one on a constant basis.

[Duvalier]

Maybe even a few people became educated about Alaazo today.

[blackthroatedwind]

Definitely. That's why it's such a great game. We can always learn.....as long as we want to. Most people's problem is they don't want to learn.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by Duvalier

Maybe even a few people became educated about Alaazo today.

Let me take a few minutes here.

I can only speak for myself but I certainly didn't become educated by today's events. And, this isn't because I'm an IDIOT, though there are some who probably would argue that point.

I have a process by which I formulate an opinion. There are certain things I look for when handicapping a race or identifying a horse as a betback. Let's look at the positives and negatives of the winner.

Positives: apparently, the trainer LOVED him.

Negatives: POOR figs; unimpressive trip; beat a weak bunch ---so, failed the CLASS test.

But let's break this down a bit further.

1) As I basically feel that most trainers, like most jockeys, are idiots, I basically could care less what a given trainer thinks before a race. While I respect Mott more than most, I've worked on the backstrech and I know all about how many trainers LOVE their horse in a given race.

2) Now, I'm a trip handicapper but what distinguishes me from most is that I pay almost ZERO attention to numbers. In most cases, I could really care less how FAST a horse runs. In this case, however, even I couldn't ignore the fact that the horse ran RIDICULOUSLY slow for the distance, for that day.

2) While the horse was carried wide the 1st turn, it needed to be pushed the entire length of the backstretch to get to contention, then finished in pretty sorry looking stride to just get up, while being beaten up. Compare this with the very impressive last race of Aquarian, who was blocked behind horses in the stretch, swung outside of them, and once hit by the jock, exploded with a late run to make up a significant bit of ground and just get up. Or, even the effort by Mambo Meister, who had significant gate issues, pressed a fast pace, opened up and was run down ---this one figured to not get the distance, however.

3) IRONICALLY, this horse looked very good on my Fatchart. His effort stood out; the type I typically bet back without caring about the others in the race. But I choose to overlook this for the reasons stated above.

So, in summation, I didn't learn a ****in thing cause I dwell in the rational not the irrational. This was a result that didn't make sense to me. Just one of those things that happens.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Let me take a few minutes here.

I can only speak for myself but I certainly didn't become educated by today's events. And, this isn't because I'm an IDIOT, though there are some who probably would argue that point.

I have a process by which I formulate an opinion. There are certain things I look for when handicapping a race or identifying a horse as a betback. Let's look at the positives and negatives of the winner.

Positives: apparently, the trainer LOVED him.

Negatives: POOR figs; unimpressive trip; beat a weak bunch ---so, failed the CLASS test.

But let's break this down a bit further.

1) As I basically feel that most trainers, like most jockeys, are idiots, I basically could care less what a given trainer thinks before a race. While I respect Mott more than most, I've worked on the backstrech and I know all about how many trainers LOVE their horse in a given race.

2) Now, I'm a trip handicapper but what distinguishes me from most is that I pay almost ZERO attention to numbers. In most cases, I could really care less how FAST a horse runs. In this case, however, even I couldn't ignore the fact that the horse ran RIDICULOUSLY slow for the distance, for that day.

2) While the horse was carried wide the 1st turn, it needed to be pushed the entire length of the backstretch to get to contention, then finished in pretty sorry looking stride to just get up, while being beaten up. Compare this with the very impressive last race of Aquarian, who was blocked behind horses in the stretch, swung outside of them, and once hit by the jock, exploded with a late run to make up a significant bit of ground and just get up. Or, even the effort by Mambo Meister, who had significant gate issues, pressed a fast pace, opened up and was run down ---this one figured to not get the distance, however.

3) IRONICALLY, this horse looked very good on my Fatchart. His effort stood out; the type I typically bet back without caring about the others in the race. But I choose to overlook this for the reasons stated above.

So, in summation, I didn't learn a ****in thing cause I dwell in the rational not the irrational. This was a result that didn't make sense to me. Just one of those things that happens.

good stuff...thanks fat man.

[Duvalier]

Pedigree wise you wouldn't expect the colt to run fast 1st time out as a two year old. Given time to mature and stretching out to a more favorable distance for a solid trainer were a few more things which could have been put in the positive column.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Duvalier

Pedigree wise you wouldn't expect the colt to run fast 1st time out as a two year old. Given time to mature and stretching out to a more favorable distance for a solid trainer were a few more things which could have been put in the positive column.

The horse isn't bred to sprint, which it didn't do in his debut, however what he did do in his debut was go slowly. There are plenty of horses that are bred to go fast that can't.

Making wagering decisions based on breeding, in the face of contrary evidence, is a slippery slope to Brokesville.

This horse won today.....the next forty ( at least ) that have a similar story and accompanying pps will get drowned.

[Duvalier]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The horse isn't bred to sprint, which it didn't do in his debut, however what he did do in his debut was go slowly. There are plenty of horses that are bred to go fast that can't.

Making wagering decisions based on breeding, in the face of contrary evidence, is a slippery slope to Brokesville.

This horse won today.....the next forty ( at least ) that have a similar story and accompanying pps will get drowned.

And alot of horses improve dramatically second time out...especially going from a green 2 year old to a maturing 3 year old. Every horse and every race is different...just seemed like there were a few things to like about Alaazo today. As you know...opinions are backed at the windows. Like they say...you can beat a race....

[CSC]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Let me take a few minutes here.

I can only speak for myself but I certainly didn't become educated by today's events. And, this isn't because I'm an IDIOT, though there are some who probably would argue that point.

I have a process by which I formulate an opinion. There are certain things I look for when handicapping a race or identifying a horse as a betback. Let's look at the positives and negatives of the winner.

Positives: apparently, the trainer LOVED him.

Negatives: POOR figs; unimpressive trip; beat a weak bunch ---so, failed the CLASS test.

But let's break this down a bit further.

1) As I basically feel that most trainers, like most jockeys, are idiots, I basically could care less what a given trainer thinks before a race. While I respect Mott more than most, I've worked on the backstrech and I know all about how many trainers LOVE their horse in a given race.

2) Now, I'm a trip handicapper but what distinguishes me from most is that I pay almost ZERO attention to numbers. In most cases, I could really care less how FAST a horse runs. In this case, however, even I couldn't ignore the fact that the horse ran RIDICULOUSLY slow for the distance, for that day.

2) While the horse was carried wide the 1st turn, it needed to be pushed the entire length of the backstretch to get to contention, then finished in pretty sorry looking stride to just get up, while being beaten up. Compare this with the very impressive last race of Aquarian, who was blocked behind horses in the stretch, swung outside of them, and once hit by the jock, exploded with a late run to make up a significant bit of ground and just get up. Or, even the effort by Mambo Meister, who had significant gate issues, pressed a fast pace, opened up and was run down ---this one figured to not get the distance, however.

3) IRONICALLY, this horse looked very good on my Fatchart. His effort stood out; the type I typically bet back without caring about the others in the race. But I choose to overlook this for the reasons stated above.

So, in summation, I didn't learn a ****in thing cause I dwell in the rational not the irrational. This was a result that didn't make sense to me. Just one of those things that happens.

That's a good read Fat_man, this game is hard to figure at times...That I am sure every horseplayer here can agree on. Thanks.

[GBBob]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Well, maybe that poster is new and maybe not, but it's the ultimate democracy on the internet, and if you want to post you are open to responses.

You can say the Fat Man was belittling him, but you could also say that he was educating him, and if that poster took the latter approach he would learn a lot in a very short period of time.

And, if that poster is new to the game, and wants to stick around, he better learn to take a beating, because this game will give you one on a constant basis.

The horse was probably downgraded three notches before he even ran because he was touted by Irish from Facebook...two questionable resources

It was a fun thread to follow, and as Andy said, it's good when "young" people are involved in this sport...regardless of the legitimacy

I give Irish credit..reluctantly..he is ripped up and down ( deservedly) for his ND posts and then he touts horses unabashedly from Mott's kid on Facebook and still shows up cheerfully to put up or shut up

[IrishofNDMan]

If everyone was nice and agreed with me this message board would be no fun. I can honestly say that I have learned a lot about horse racing since joining this board, and enjoy reading the opinions of others. I still have a lot to learn, but everyone has some to learn when it comes to horse racing, that is what makes it soo fun.