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#23
02-04-2008, 04:26 PM
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thanks guys
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#24
02-04-2008, 04:40 PM
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Apparently Riley Mott had $200 on Alaazo, atleast he says.
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#25
02-04-2008, 04:43 PM
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I'm glad to hear the youth of America is plowing it in at the windows.
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#26
02-04-2008, 04:46 PM
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#28
02-04-2008, 05:15 PM
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Look at the way he demolished: 1) a turf horse, that's also one of the PREEMINENT suckups in racing --Titan of Industry --- INCREDIBLY, this one went off the chalk 2) a turf sprinter --- Atwell ---if I were the owner I'd reassess my trainer choice 3) a horse that doesn't want to go a mile, let alone 2 turns --- Mambo Meister --- I know this but Gleaves obviously doesn't; and, he apparently spread the word about his good thing. 4) a horse that just didn't run to his last race --- Aquarian 5) a horse that was just around to pick it all up late --- Extreme Frolic Welcome the college crowd: you will all prove benficial
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#29
02-04-2008, 05:32 PM
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Man, you guys are a tough crowd. It was a $40,000 allowance race for the love of god. Are you expecting to find a lot of stakes-caliber horses in there? I haven't heard anybody saying that the horse is going to go on and win the Florida Derby or anything, but it was a decent win.
As for the selection, the horse was the 4th choice on the board and I sure didn't see a lot to like so, to those who played him, I just offer congratulations. I really don't care who they are or what website they discussed the pick on. A winner is a winner.
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#30
02-04-2008, 05:49 PM
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Well, a poster just said he was the " hottest horse in the Mott barn ", and considering that barn includes highly ranked 3YOs Majestic Warrior and Court Vision, I don't think it's unfair to call out the ridiculousness of that comment. The Fat Man's description of the race was pretty accurate, and even though I question Majestic Warrior's potential going long on the dirt and Court Vision's overall ability, I don't think today's winner would be fairly labelled as that poster suggested. He's had two starts. One was a markedly weak winning effort and today's was a workmanlike step in the right direction. Nobody is better at developing talent than Bill Mott, so perhaps this one will take some further giant leaps forward, but unreasonable comments like that poster made are open to derision.
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#31
02-04-2008, 06:57 PM
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No need to respond...just pointing it out for the college crowd.
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#32
02-04-2008, 07:23 PM
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#33
02-04-2008, 07:31 PM
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#34
02-04-2008, 07:36 PM
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Well, maybe that poster is new and maybe not, but it's the ultimate democracy on the internet, and if you want to post you are open to responses. You can say the Fat Man was belittling him, but you could also say that he was educating him, and if that poster took the latter approach he would learn a lot in a very short period of time. And, if that poster is new to the game, and wants to stick around, he better learn to take a beating, because this game will give you one on a constant basis.
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#36
02-04-2008, 07:42 PM
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Definitely. That's why it's such a great game. We can always learn.....as long as we want to. Most people's problem is they don't want to learn.
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#37
02-04-2008, 07:58 PM
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I can only speak for myself but I certainly didn't become educated by today's events. And, this isn't because I'm an IDIOT, though there are some who probably would argue that point. I have a process by which I formulate an opinion. There are certain things I look for when handicapping a race or identifying a horse as a betback. Let's look at the positives and negatives of the winner. Positives: apparently, the trainer LOVED him. Negatives: POOR figs; unimpressive trip; beat a weak bunch ---so, failed the CLASS test. But let's break this down a bit further. 1) As I basically feel that most trainers, like most jockeys, are idiots, I basically could care less what a given trainer thinks before a race. While I respect Mott more than most, I've worked on the backstrech and I know all about how many trainers LOVE their horse in a given race. 2) Now, I'm a trip handicapper but what distinguishes me from most is that I pay almost ZERO attention to numbers. In most cases, I could really care less how FAST a horse runs. In this case, however, even I couldn't ignore the fact that the horse ran RIDICULOUSLY slow for the distance, for that day. 2) While the horse was carried wide the 1st turn, it needed to be pushed the entire length of the backstretch to get to contention, then finished in pretty sorry looking stride to just get up, while being beaten up. Compare this with the very impressive last race of Aquarian, who was blocked behind horses in the stretch, swung outside of them, and once hit by the jock, exploded with a late run to make up a significant bit of ground and just get up. Or, even the effort by Mambo Meister, who had significant gate issues, pressed a fast pace, opened up and was run down ---this one figured to not get the distance, however. 3) IRONICALLY, this horse looked very good on my Fatchart. His effort stood out; the type I typically bet back without caring about the others in the race. But I choose to overlook this for the reasons stated above. So, in summation, I didn't learn a ****in thing cause I dwell in the rational not the irrational. This was a result that didn't make sense to me. Just one of those things that happens.
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#38
02-04-2008, 08:16 PM
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good stuff...thanks fat man.
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#39
02-04-2008, 08:18 PM
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Pedigree wise you wouldn't expect the colt to run fast 1st time out as a two year old. Given time to mature and stretching out to a more favorable distance for a solid trainer were a few more things which could have been put in the positive column.
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#40
02-04-2008, 08:26 PM
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The horse isn't bred to sprint, which it didn't do in his debut, however what he did do in his debut was go slowly. There are plenty of horses that are bred to go fast that can't. Making wagering decisions based on breeding, in the face of contrary evidence, is a slippery slope to Brokesville. This horse won today.....the next forty ( at least ) that have a similar story and accompanying pps will get drowned.
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