2/2 (GP): Gr. I Donn; Gr. II Swale

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

One question. How do you know it wasn't? If it's because he didn't run to expectations, I'd like to know how those expectations were reached. Were they expectations or assumptions? I had seen no reason going into the race that he would be able to handle the conditions today and therefore, I had no expectation of him winning. I will admit that I didn't think he'd finish as bad as he did but to be honest, and I realize that this won't be believed, his finish today surprised me less than a win would have. I went in thinking one of two things would happen:

-he'd vastly improved, would take on the challengers, run them off of their feet and would dominate the race and prove his recent form was not just due to circumstances being in his favor but that he was really that good.

-he still was the same horse that had had previous troubles trying stakes company and going two turns and would be nowhere to be found at the end.

I was betting on the latter scenario. I didn't figure on anything in between. It was inconceivable to me that he could handle the conditions and still get beaten by a better horse.

When I handicap, or at least try to, what I try to always go against is a horse that's favored to do something because it's assumed he can do it when facing other horses that have proven they can.

Funny, you didn't make one post regarding this horse, and your assessment of his chances in the Donn, before the race. But, apparently, you had the whole thing figured out.....after the race.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Funny, you didn't make one post regarding this horse, and your assessment of his chances in the Donn, before the race. But, apparently, you had the whole thing figured out.....after the race.

I apologize that I had to go to work and there were no computers for me to put in all of my pre-race thoughts for your approval. I know it's not the same but if you were to look on the thread discussing the Cigar Mile, it's pretty clear where I stood on this horse. I totally attributed that win to the conditions (pace, small field, huge weight break, and the fact that ML was over the top) rather than to his being that good. Again, I know that probably means nothing to you but after that race, I couldn't wait to bet against him in a race like this.

[hurricanefrank]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Funny, you didn't make one post regarding this horse, and your assessment of his chances in the Donn, before the race. But, apparently, you had the whole thing figured out.....after the race.

I don't know what King Glorious said about the Donn prior to the running but your point is well taken as it regards handicapping in general. It's very easy do post-mortems, but entirely another to foretell same in a pre-race analysis.