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#1
02-02-2008, 11:35 PM
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That's a very convenient response but frankly flat out unfair and an odd cheap shot from you. While obviously I am wrong a fair share of the time, overall the advice I give here is pretty strong, and over time my opinions have proven pretty strong. I take the opposite view of people because I believe they are wrong....and they usually are when I challenge them. As regards today's races I told people that Fairbanks and Einstein had no chance and I literally begged a poster not to bet heavily favored Wincat in the Swale. I also endorsed the winner of the Whirlaway. Please, regale us with your plethora of pre-race opinions that have come to fruition recently. I take a stand. And I'll take my chances with my overall record. In fact, I do in a pretty big way on a daily basis. 
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#2
02-02-2008, 11:38 PM
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#3
02-02-2008, 11:41 PM
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#4
02-03-2008, 07:31 AM
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DRF post race:
http://drf.com/news/article/92028.html Sun-Sentinel: http://www.sun-sentinel.com/features...,6600025.story McGlaughlin: "It's obvious something went wrong."
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#5
02-03-2008, 07:43 AM
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but he also said it appears daaher came back sound.
__________________
Books serve to show a man that those original thoughts of his aren't very new at all. Abraham Lincoln
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#6
02-03-2008, 09:45 AM
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Anyone who remembers the Cigar Mile knew Daaher had that race gift wrapped to him. As good a sprinter as Midnight Lute is, he has ZERO early speed. So who else was chasing him? The ass-dragging Naughty New Yorker and Exchanger. Exchanger has some talent but again, no early speed. If you are in good form and on the lead and all you have to put away is Exchanger, you'd better romp.
FWIW, how about the race Kiss the Kid ran? THe pace was strong and he put away Daaher and held on for 3rd. AP Arrow will probably be overbet next time out for his closing on a fast pace, pick up the pieces second.
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#7
02-03-2008, 09:52 AM
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I agree about Kiss the Kid and can only wonder what his recent resume would look like if he had been ridden well in his last two starts. Frankly, his performance yesterday is probably a condemnation of the race in general....as how good could it have been if he ran so well.
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#8
02-03-2008, 10:02 AM
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"Luzzi told McLaughlin that the Florida heat might have been Daaher's undoing.
"It's obvious something went wrong," McLaughlin said. "The [jockey] said it felt like he overheated. ... These things can happen. Right now he's walking OK." I think that to some extent, since it seems right now at least that Daaher is physically okay, this makes KG's point about not putting "a line through the race" a valid one, although perhaps not for the reasons KG stated. It makes it worth figuring out - for fututre betting purposes - why the horse ran like that. Was it the heat, as Luzzi stated? Was it the layoff? Is he the sort of horse that can handle added distance with a nice foundation, but can't first off a break? Does he just not like the Gulfstream strip? Is he a NY only horse? (Look at his record/figs in and out of New York) I don't know the answer to these questions, but in light of that uncharacteristic performance, asking them seems valid. Simply putting a line through the race and saying "something went wrong" (or using it as evidence that he simply can't handle two-turns), doesn't seem productive to me. It makes sense to take an educated guess as to what that "something" might be.
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#9
02-03-2008, 10:14 AM
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Re: the Swale, I think BTW mentioned earlier that the race could go down (or should) in designation. I was underwhelmed by that field and the Swale seems to be living off its past reputation; there used to be a time when horses used the Swale as a prep for the Florida Derby but those days are long gone.
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#10
02-03-2008, 10:23 AM
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Of course KG is right that you can't just completely dismiss Daaher's race out of hand. But, at the same time, he also very clearly did not run " his " race. It is in determining why that was, in any case, that matters in the future. But, his effort yesterday was also very clearly not indicative of his true talent. It's sort of semantics.
Maybe it was the early pressure that was completely his undoing, though considering the way the track had been playing both Friday and Saturday, and the way Daaher effectively chucked it relatively early, any reasonable race watcher would probably come to the conclusion that Daaher's effort was more than just a case of a need the lead type that will wilt with early pressure going two turns. Of course one can say you need to weigh the many possibilities in racing, and that's one of the reasons the game is endlessly fascinating, but it is in one's actual ability to correctly analyze these possibilities that will ultimately determine how successful they are in predicting the future. I may well not be running to play Daaher in any similar scenerios in the future, and his connections may agree and avoid them, but I also wholeheartedly believe that for whatever reason Daaher did not run " his " true race yesterday.
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#11
02-02-2008, 11:46 PM
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__________________
The real horses of the year (1986-2020) Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine
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