2/2 (GP): Gr. I Donn; Gr. II Swale

Originally Posted by stonegossard

His opinion/reasoning in this instance is horrible.


As far as cashing a pick 6? Surely you are not implying that if someone at some point hits a pick 6 then they always have a good opinion.

I know some very bad cappers who have gotten lucky and hit the pick 6.

I agree with you on Daaher not being able to handle the pressure. It's a logical assumption. What I'm missing is how most on here have completely disregarded Fairbanks' chances on the assumption that John R. will force him to the lead. I'm assuming he'll keep him directly behind Daaher and let him chase the cheap speed.

Outside of Fairbanks' last two races, his previous three races will beat anyone in this field...unless A.P. Arrow repeats or improves off the Clark performance.

[stonegossard]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

I agree with you on Daaher not being able to handle the pressure. It's a logical assumption. What I'm missing is how most on here have completely disregarded Fairbanks' chances on the assumption that John R. will force him to the lead. I'm assuming he'll keep him directly behind Daaher and let him chase the cheap speed.

Outside of Fairbanks' last two races, his previous three races will beat anyone in this field...unless A.P. Arrow repeats or improves off the Clark performance.

I think Fairbanks has to be sent. His best races have all been gate to wire. The race he won at GP last year he was in some traffic and was forced back. Ever since then he has been gunned to the lead. I am not sure Johnny V can take him back without choking him into submission. His race at Suffolk he was up on a slow apce...and still was handled easily by BH.

His figures in his previous 3 are good....but they arent great races....his Tokyo City race figure seems out of whack as they crawled early.

I think he is a complete toss based on he isnt gonna outrun Daaher...and I cant see him rating with any success. Plus his race in The Clark was brutal.

[JJP]

I'm not sure its fair to criticize O'Neill for the "shipping factor". The one horse that comes to mind of his that had trouble shipping is Lava Man but I always wondered if racing w/out race day Bute was the factor with him.

BTW, Spring at Last won in Dubai which is a helluva lot longer ship and tougher medication rules. SaL should sit the perfect trip. Not sure what the price will be because there's 4 absolutely no chance types who figure to take very little betting $ (the 3 grassers and Dr. Googles).

[pick4]

In the Swale I think the morning line odds are nutty. Wincat has no business being 9/5 off a maiden win at Philly Park even though his trainer Kieran McLaughlin is a sharpie. Coal Play at 5/2 is using this as a prep for the FOY or perhaps a race at Fair Grounds or Oaklawn. He's not a sprinter.

Wayne Lucas has an interesting horse, Silver Edition who has run well in all three of his races less than a mile. I think he is the horse to beat in this race. But I don't like betting Wayne Lucas' horses at short odds.

Eaton's Gift might like the return to a one turn sprint. He ran a pretty darn good race at Hollywood Park in the Hollywood Futurity. His sprint races where impressive and if you look at his debut race you'll see he raced against horses who came back to win in their next starts including Kodiak Cowboy who won the Bashford Manor and Saratoga Special. Being a colt by Johannesburg his game should be one turn sprints and if he's between 4 and 6 to 1 you have to put a few bucks on his nose.

I like Eaton's Gift to win with Silver Edition finishing second.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by pick4

In the Swale I think the morning line odds are nutty. Wincat has no business being 9/5 off a maiden win at Philly Park even though his trainer Kieran McLaughlin is a sharpie. Coal Play at 5/2 is using this as a prep for the FOY or perhaps a race at Fair Grounds or Oaklawn. He's not a sprinter.

Wayne Lucas has an interesting horse, Silver Edition who has run well in all three of his races less than a mile. I think he is the horse to beat in this race. But I don't like betting Wayne Lucas' horses at short odds.

Eaton's Gift might like the return to a one turn sprint. He ran a pretty darn good race at Hollywood Park in the Hollywood Futurity. His sprint races where impressive and if you look at his debut race you'll see he raced against horses who came back to win in their next starts including Kodiak Cowboy who won the Bashford Manor and Saratoga Special. Being a colt by Johannesburg his game should be one turn sprints and if he's between 4 and 6 to 1 you have to put a few bucks on his nose.

I like Eaton's Gift to win with Silver Edition finishing second.

Wincat is going to dust this field IMO, with or without Coal Play. His race at Philly was SUPER fast for a debut, and the only reason they went to Philly was because they got a 40% bonus on the purse for him being a PA bred. 30k for a MSW win, very Toga/Del mar esqe as far as purse size is concerned. (Now I will agree that when you have a good horse, an MSW purse should mean nothing).

I fully expect him to win this race, at even money

[JJP]

I expect the value play in the Swale to be St. Joe. Brutal pace at the bullring in the jackpot race, and he was arguably the best in the Iroquois after setting a fast pace. Now he turns back. I expect Silver Edition to go off as the favorite.

[pick4]

Originally Posted by JJP

I expect the value play in the Swale to be St. Joe. Brutal pace at the bullring in the jackpot race, and he was arguably the best in the Iroquois after setting a fast pace. Now he turns back. I expect Silver Edition to go off as the favorite.

You might be right about St. Joe. While the winner of his race race was right behind him early the rest of the pack was way back. Plus Z Humor came back to win the LeCombe at Fairgrounds. I'm going to use him with my top selection

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Scav

Wincat is going to dust this field IMO, with or without Coal Play. His race at Philly was SUPER fast for a debut, and the only reason they went to Philly was because they got a 40% bonus on the purse for him being a PA bred. 30k for a MSW win, very Toga/Del mar esqe as far as purse size is concerned. (Now I will agree that when you have a good horse, an MSW purse should mean nothing).

I fully expect him to win this race, at even money

IMO you are going to regret this opinion and it is one of the dangers of looking at sheets and playing races from tracks that you do not follow.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

IMO you are going to regret this opinion and it is one of the dangers of looking at sheets and playing races from tracks that you do not follow.

So you obviously think it is much more wide open? Me personally, I think there is one A and 1 B. Wincat being the A and Coal Play being the B.

[pick4]

In the Donn, Daaher looks like he is a legit favorite and a horse I will not spend much time trying to beat. He might face some pressure early from the likes of Fairbanks and maybe Kiss The Kid but he will dust those horses. The problem to this race is will there be a fast early pace which has Daaher winning the battle and losing the war or a moderate pace where Daaher has enough to negoitiate the 1 1/8 and cross the line first.

If they go too fast I think a classy horse like Brass Hat could pick up the pieces. Another horse I think will run well is Spring At Last. This horse has shown he has talent but has never won a two turn race on dirt. Yet he has faced top quality competition in some of his route races and he did not diggrace himself. I like that he was able to stalk a moderate pace on the grass and finish strong to win on opening day over Santa Anita's turf course.
I'm not worried about O'Neill shipping and his record. The fact that he is shipping to run here tells me he has confidence in the horse. It looks like he was pointing Spring At Last to this race.

I think I'm going to play Spring at Last to win. If he is 6-1 or higher I will wager more on him. I'll also box him in an exacta box with Dahrer.

Originally Posted by pick4

In the Donn, Daaher looks like he is a legit favorite and a horse I will not spend much time trying to beat. He might face some pressure early from the likes of Fairbanks and maybe Kiss The Kid but he will dust those horses. The problem to this race is will there be a fast early pace which has Daaher winning the battle and losing the war or a moderate pace where Daaher has enough to negoitiate the 1 1/8 and cross the line first.

If they go too fast I think a classy horse like Brass Hat could pick up the pieces. Another horse I think will run well is Spring At Last. This horse has shown he has talent but has never won a two turn race on dirt. Yet he has faced top quality competition in some of his route races and he did not diggrace himself. I like that he was able to stalk a moderate pace on the grass and finish strong to win on opening day over Santa Anita's turf course.
I'm not worried about O'Neill shipping and his record. The fact that he is shipping to run here tells me he has confidence in the horse. It looks like he was pointing Spring At Last to this race.

I think I'm going to play Spring at Last to win. If he is 6-1 or higher I will wager more on him. I'll also box him in an exacta box with Dahrer.

Watch the dirt races today and keep an eye on the undercard tomorrow before deciding on a closer.

[tiggerv]

Daaher wins by open lengths whether he leads or stalks. Very hard to close on that track.

[pick4]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

Watch the dirt races today and keep an eye on the undercard tomorrow before deciding on a closer.

I like Daaher and believe he will run well. Daaher has been lights out since he added blinkers. Spring At Last is not a deep closer and I don't anticipate he'll be one in this race. As I said I'm not going to spend a lot of capital in trying to beat him.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

I agree with you on Daaher not being able to handle the pressure. It's a logical assumption. What I'm missing is how most on here have completely disregarded Fairbanks' chances on the assumption that John R. will force him to the lead. I'm assuming he'll keep him directly behind Daaher and let him chase the cheap speed.

Outside of Fairbanks' last two races, his previous three races will beat anyone in this field...unless A.P. Arrow repeats or improves off the Clark performance.

How is Daaher cheap speed and Fairbanks isn't?!

Originally Posted by hockey2315

How is Daaher cheap speed and Fairbanks isn't?!

I was talking about letting Daaher chase the cheap speed.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

I was talking about letting Daaher chase the cheap speed.

O ok - personally I think Daaher will be on the lead. . . None of these horses can match up with his early speed. . .

Originally Posted by hockey2315

O ok - personally I think Daaher will be on the lead. . . None of these horses can match up with his early speed. . .

Well watching how the track is playing today I'd say you're right. Should be a boring race.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

Well watching how the track is playing today I'd say you're right. Should be a boring race.

No kidding. It seems odd that this field inspired such spirited discussion, although I guess for those that don't like Daaher, it is a pretty even field.