Does the Dosage Index matter?

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by philcski

Are these #'s AS OF the Derby, or right now?

The Dosage is about as ridiculous as the guy who told me Funny Cide couldn't win the Derby "because he was a New York Bred"

Indeed. Dosage is just about as useful as those always useless Derby "angles."

[Thunder Gulch]

Does it matter??? Yes and no- just like any other handicapping factor. If you take the time to really understand the process and use it, it can assist in the overall picture. People citing specific examples of why it doesn't matter are glossing over the larger picture. Would those of you quick to downplay the validity of the dosage index as a handicapping factor consider speed figures important? Of course they are, but they are only one component of an infinate puzzle that handicapping horse races is.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

Does it matter??? Yes and no- just like any other handicapping factor. If you take the time to really understand the process and use it, it can assist in the overall picture. People citing specific examples of why it doesn't matter are glossing over the larger picture. Would those of you quick to downplay the validity of the dosage index as a handicapping factor consider speed figures important? Of course they are, but they are only one component of an infinate puzzle that handicapping horse races is.

Using your puzzle example I would say that speed figs are a very important piece in the real 1000 piece puzzle that is handicapping. Meanwhile, the dosage index is a piece in a one of those 8-piece childrens' puzzles that has nothing at all to do with solving the bigger puzzle.

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Using your puzzle example I would say that speed figs are a very important piece in the real 1000 piece puzzle that is handicapping. Meanwhile, the dosage index is a piece in a one of those 8-piece childrens' puzzles that has nothing at all to do with solving the bigger puzzle.

Understand...but isn't a tool underutilized by the masses what creates an overlay? I'm not going to tell you I look at Dosage Indexes often, but pedigree analysis is a legitimate factor and DI's can often point you in the right direction, same as Tomlinson's or other figures created to place a numerical value on a horse's suitability to specific distances/surfaces. As discussed, most here don't need Dr.Roman to tell them AP Indy's are more inclined to handle routes or Lee Tomlinsin to tell you Danehill's are good on the turf, but when you are dealing with more obscure first generation sires, I think their work is helpful.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

Understand...but isn't a tool underutilized by the masses what creates an overlay? I'm not going to tell you I look at Dosage Indexes often, but pedigree analysis is a legitimate factor and DI's can often point you in the right direction, same as Tomlinson's or other figures created to place a numerical value on a horse's suitability to specific distances/surfaces. As discussed, most here don't need Dr.Roman to tell them AP Indy's are more inclined to handle routes or Lee Tomlinsin to tell you Danehill's are good on the turf, but when you are dealing with more obscure first generation sires, I think their work is helpful.

I think for the few horses out there that have older sires and broodmare sires that have already been categorized as chef-de-races they could be used as a tool. That is an extremely small percent though and way too many people that use them try and apply them to everyone. It would be like if Beyer figures were only useful at 7 furlongs on cushion track yet everyone used them for all distances on all surfaces.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Cardus

Similar to what you are saying, I'll say this about the Dosage Index:

It's used for the Kentucky Derby only, as far as I know. The Derby is such a peculiar, and unique, race, that it invites the application of this formula.

I don't know of any other race to which Roman's formula is applied.

I would think anytime a horse is stretching out it would be as useful as it would be for the Derby.

[jpops757]

dosage is a very small tool that is compiled by a very well known "expert". What I cant figure out is why he was so far behind almost every other person in the racing industry to decied that AP indys offspring can get the distance.