2/2 (GP): Gr. I Donn; Gr. II Swale

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by gamblin4ever

With no true stand outs, it should be interesting race w/value hopefully.
But, i'll have to stick by Brass hat.

I'd call Daaher a standout. Not saying he doesn't have holes, but he's definitely a standout.

[blackthroatedwind]

I think the Grading of the Swale is in trouble.....and if it isn't then it should be.

I sincerely hope none of the good people of Derby Trail are thinking of betting Fairbanks.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I think the Grading of the Swale is in trouble.....and if it isn't then it should be.

I sincerely hope none of the good people of Derby Trail are thinking of betting Fairbanks.

They are.....

The interesting horse to me is Roman's horse, but that notion can probably be shot down because Daahar should put him into the ground.

[blackthroatedwind]

I can understand someone wanting to take a shot against Daaher. The major reason for this may, in fact, be the presense of Fairbanks. Not that Fairbanks has a prayer, because he doesn't, but because he could run Daaher into the ground. It is far from clear that Daaher is going to be comfortable rating in a two turn route and Fairbanks is the one who might force him to do that. On the other hand, Daaher is faster early than Fairbanks, so perhaps he will bottom out this subpar field. But, if they really send Fairbanks it could be Daaher's undoing. Either way, Fairbanks has no shot to win.

What I would really like to do, however, is book all monies on the oddly popular Einstein. I guess I understand the connections wanting to take a shot at winning a Grade 1 on the dirt to give him some residual value. However, he's not a dirt horse. Two wins in off the turf races on wet tracks doesn't make him one. He will be severely undervalued.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I can understand someone wanting to take a shot against Daaher. The major reason for this may, in fact, be the presense of Fairbanks. Not that Fairbanks has a prayer, because he doesn't, but because he could run Daaher into the ground. It is far from clear that Daaher is going to be comfortable rating in a two turn route and Fairbanks is the one who might force him to do that. On the other hand, Daaher is faster early than Fairbanks, so perhaps he will bottom out this subpar field. But, if they really send Fairbanks it could be Daaher's undoing. Either way, Fairbanks has no shot to win.

What I would really like to do, however, is book all monies on the oddly popular Einstein. I guess I understand the connections wanting to take a shot at winning a Grade 1 on the dirt to give him some residual value. However, he's not a dirt horse. Two wins in off the turf races on wet tracks doesn't make him one. He will be severely undervalued.

So basically Daaher is going to win. If Fairbanks can't pressure him then it's highly unlikely a closer will get to him on that airstrip.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

So basically Daaher is going to win. If Fairbanks can't pressure him then it's highly unlikely a closer will get to him on that airstrip.

Gulfstream has been very even for the most part. Horses can come from well back.

Fairbanks is in a no win situation. First of all, and probably most importantly, he's not much horse. However, tactically he's way against it, as the horse who is very much the horse to beat has his exact running style, and is a lot better at it. How can that possibly translate into a win by Fairbanks ( assuming Daaher doesn't lose his rider or worse )?

I don't completely discount the possibility of some kind of meltdown. But, Fairbanks will be the cause of that....not the beneficiary.

[whodey17]

I will take Dr Googles Boogles

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Gulfstream has been very even for the most part. Horses can come from well back.

Fairbanks is in a no win situation. First of all, and probably most importantly, he's not much horse. However, tactically he's way against it, as the horse who is very much the horse to beat has his exact running style, and is a lot better at it. How can that possibly translate into a win by Fairbanks ( assuming Daaher doesn't lose his rider or worse )?

I don't completely discount the possibility of some kind of meltdown. But, Fairbanks will be the cause of that....not the beneficiary.

So you think Daaher will have no problem with the distance? I'm not sold on him past 8 furlongs. If Fairbanks can pressure him then it's a coin flip on who will win.

Now this is all a moot point if I don't get 6/1 or higher on Fairbanks. He's playable at those odds, especially in the exotics.

[Bobby Fischer]

Fairbanks won't do a very good job of bothering Daaher. Kiss is worth a look at replays, he breaks well enough on paper ...

It is all moot, as Daaher has been pressured before (jerome comes to mind) and didn't notice the other horse. It will be about the stamina limits. Luzzi has been less prone to major errors and wants this mount badly. Is Daaher a 2trn 9furlong horse?? I don't see why not, 10f is maybe a little questionable... Spring at Last is the only comparable talent. SaL isn't a pure 9 furlong horse either but is capable and mature. Wouldn't surprise. Is clearly 2nd best.
Arrow will get a nice trip. Wood be Willing has every right to step forward. 2nd time dirt, 2nd time Jerkens, 2nd time Lezcano 2nd time loser?