Does the Dosage Index matter?

[King Glorious]

No. It doesn't matter. The next time a horse wins that doesn't qualify, they'll just revise the system again to make the horse qualify.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Dosage is absolute hackery.

It greatly delegitimizes pedigree handicapping.

[my miss storm cat]

Obviously i know very little about it but what exactly does a horse have to accomplish to gain the title Chef de Race?

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

Obviously i know very little about it but what exactly does a horse have to accomplish to gain the title Chef de Race?

It's an arbitrary distinction that is given seemingly randomly and the main reason that dosage is completely useless for any current horses.

The concept that you could apply mathematics to the stallions in a pedigree and gain a reasonable approximation of what sort of horse you will have I think is plausible. The way they go about it though is completely wrong.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

Obviously i know very little about it but what exactly does a horse have to accomplish to gain the title Chef de Race?

Sort of what was alluded to here.....after his horse's win big races going long they get added. Frankly, it the ultimate redboarder's guide.

Dosage is an anachronism now that people have become more sophisticated and legitimate techniques ( like speed figures ) are widespread for analyzing a horse's talent.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Look at you two love birds co-existing so peacefully.

[my miss storm cat]

Sniper... the way they go about it is wrong..... how?

BTW..... how is it the ultimate redboarders guide?

Not that it matters but which stallion(s)should be and are not?

Again, I've just never really understood the big picture. Assumed it didn't matter but it's easy to make an assumption (even if it's correct) with next to no information.....

[blackthroatedwind]

Because it revises opinions after the race to tell you why a horse won.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

Sniper... the way they go about it is wrong..... how?

Many will argue that excluding the quality of the mares from the process makes them inherently flawed but I think they could work even just focusing on the stallions. The main problem is that you are either in or out. If you are in you are weighted exactly the same as every other horse that is in. If you are out you don't count at all in determining the dosage. There is no in between. So as of yesterday any offspring of AP Indy was getting no dosage points for him. Now today they get a whole influx of points from him. If you are by a son of AP Indy then you weren't getting points for your sire or points for your grandsire either while AP Indy wasn't a chef-de-race. There are a lot of well bred horses out there these days that you have to go back 3 or 4 generations just to find a single chef-de-race. So their entire dosage index is calculated while completely ignoring everything in their pedigree in the last two to three generations. That is about as stupid of a concept as you can get.

[Indian Charlie]

I predict that Giacamo will not become a chef-de-race.
I predict.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by cmfhb411

I bet Real Quiet to win the Derby.
He wasn't a qualifier to win it, going into the race, based on dosage.
But his number became a qualifier when it was changed after the Derby.

Thank goodness I never paid any attention to it.
and this short story should tell everyone, with a minimum of 5th grade reading level, how bogus dosage level is.

Same thing happened with Strike the Gold. If I remember right, Alydar at the time wasn't on the chef list. Then, PRESTO, he was. Not that he shouldn't have been added though. I don't know much about what it takes to make the list but I know Alydar belongs. But the point is that he wasn't up to that point so therefore, STG didn't qualify.

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Look at you two love birds co-existing so peacefully.

I've repented and have changed my evil ways.....

[Slewbopper]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Sort of what was alluded to here.....after his horse's win big races going long they get added. Frankly, it the ultimate redboarder's guide.

Dosage is an anachronism now that people have become more sophisticated and legitimate techniques ( like speed figures ) are widespread for analyzing a horse's talent.

A prime example of the fallacy of dosage was Strike The Gold. He had a dosage of about 9.00 ruining Roman's bogus record of no horse winning the Derby with a dosage of over 4 since 1929. What does Roman do? He immediately upgrades STG's sire Alydar's status in his chef de race charts and "Bingo" Strike The Gold has a dosage of 2.70

[Slewbopper]

I remember being caught up in the Roman theory of dual qualifiers ( dosage of 4 or less and being 116 or higher on the 2 year old experimental highweight) as the only horses that could win the Derby. His shining moment was the '90 Derby when Unbridled, Summer Squall, and Pleasant Tap were the only three duallies in the race. The tri paid about $1600 with Tap at 50/1

I think that at some point in the '80s it may have had some merit, but everytime a sire is upgraded, it lowers the overall dosage numbers. It seems today that almost all contenders fit within the guidelines when years ago not that many did.

[miraja2]

Pedigree can matter.
Dosage does not.
In terms of looking at a race like the Kentucky Derby, Belmont Stakes, or any race where all of the horses are trying a distance for the first time, analyzing a horse's pedigree can be a useful handicapping tool.
Reducing this process to a single number - especially when using an absurd system like dosage - just doesn't make sense.
The AP Indy example is perfect. I am pretty sure people gave Rags a good shot to win last year's Belmont in part because of her sire. He doesn't need some special designation to let us know that AP Indy's are more likely than most to do well at 10f and beyond.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Sort of what was alluded to here.....after his horse's win big races going long they get added. Frankly, it the ultimate redboarder's guide..

haha, never thought of it that way but that is precisely what it is.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I don't really think it's any kind of redboarding guide - it's just misguided nonsense.

I guess Strike the Gold was the horse who was over the dosage limit - but was brought under after his Derby win when they made Alydar a chef-de-race.

I don't exactly think it was an act of redboarding for them to finally give there silly rating to a great distance sire like Alydar.

I can't imagine how idiotic a better would have had to have been to discredit Strike The Gold's chances of seeing out a classic distance because he had a high dosage.

Strike the Gold's younger full brother was 19-6-3-2 and made $244K in route races - and was 8-1-2-0 and made $24K in sprint races.

I don't really buy that they redboard - it's just a very half baked way of judging a horses likely development and distance preferences

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Cardus

He responded that he thought the using Dosage Theory was dead.

Was it ever really alive?