SAR: Day 6 (End Week 1)

[Kasept]

An absolustely wild day at the Spa Friday as heavy rains send the card into a tizzy and huge prices do the same to players! More "on top" success than exotics wins, but was able to get pieces of several of the big numbers... Friends Del Carroll and Pont Street Stables' nice firster Distinct Pleasure scored at 15-1, Longshot Alert candidate Ada's Diamond lit it up at 34-1 and Pletcher's Magnificent Song was overlaid at 3-1... Looks like several of you took advantage!


SELECTIONS -- Saratoga, 7/29


1st: CLM, 4+, 8.5f-IT

1. #1 Battle Chant 5-2: Motion repeas of Day One opener? Ramon in town
2. #9 Planets Aligned 10-1: Woke up with move to platers, Espo
A. #4 I've Got Speed 15-1: Capable Farro grabs Coa for stalking invader
B. #7 Whole Nine Yards 12-1: Forgive off turf effort and Romans/Ramsey fits


2nd: MSW, 2yo, 6f

1. #4 Pegasus Wind 7-2: Lukas-Bejarano
2. #7 Monsieur Fruchon 4-1: Biancone-Leparoux
A. #9 Bullara 2-1: Pletcher-Velasquez
B. #2 First Defense 6-1: Frankel-Castellano


3rd: ALW/N2X, 3+, 9f

A very tough ALW with many familiar names.. Must admit to not having a firm opinion here.. Could literally go any way..

1. #3 Sir Halory 9-2: Bobby sticks with Rudy R; Getting him a SAR win?
2. #1e Corinthian/Reverberate 8-5: Centennial pair both have talent
A. #6 Scipion 4-1: Might appreciate the cutback
B. #2 Take the Bluff 6-1: Violette gave plenty of time; Needed main all along?


4th: NYB-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 5.5f (Superfecta race)

1. #5 Naveah 4-1: T. Dutrow red lone closer in speedy set
2. #4 Fly to Me 5-1: Capable Ferraro has history of Rochester-Saratoga success
A. #7 Stand by the Phone 7-2: Bush adds Leparoux to solid Phone Trick filly
B. #6 She'stenontop 10-1: Savvy $6,250 claim has faced good Empire gals


5th: NYB-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T

1. #3 Saturday's Cat 7-2: Romans' Purdadel colt jumped up first time sod
2. #2 Speaking Out 3-1: KO'B gelding just missing
A. #1e R. Dutrow entry 8-1: #1 My Apology worked well after pace collapse
B. #9 Stately Pegasus 8-1: Broman FuPeg grey streadied last; Chased Solewisher (2nd Thursday)

NOTE: Also eligible #14 Strikeuptheblues (6-1) is playable if he gets in..


6th: CLM, 3yo, 6f

1. #4 Rockhewn 8-1: Appealing tote on last out winner with Johnny V
2. #5 Stash the Boots 12-1: Imperio's own 6yo rarely runs a bad one
A. #1e Dutrow entry 5-2: Hey look! Another 'can't exclude' Dutrow entry!
B. #7 Mr. Fourth of July 8-1: Serpe-Leparoux-Flying Zee off to good meet start


7th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-IT

1. #5 Habsburg 4-1: Zippy Darley red bred to love the lawn
2. #4 Louche 30-1: Taking flyer on ground-saver that should like stretchout
A. #3 Kid Carousel 6-1: Mott comebacker a fit if able to run to diploma fig
B. #8 Patriot Game 15-1: Zito-Farmer red faced toughies


8th: 68th Diana Handicap, Gr. I, $500,000, F&M-3+, 9f-T

1. #6 Lady of Venice 2-1: Daring gambit by Patrick placing 3yo v. elders now should pay off; Scary good and flattered Friday by Magnificent Song

2. #7 My Typhoon 8-1: Classy Live Oak red has never missed a check and has only failed versus the best F&M's on the scene

A. #2 Angara 3-1: Other Mott player doesn't seem to mind off going on lawn and was third in this a year ago

B. #4 Sweet Talker 10-1: Refuse to not include our man Motion with Ramon coming into town to ride


9th: 43rd Jim Dandy, Gr. II, $500,000, 3yo, 9f

1. #4 Bernardini 4-5: Simply may be best we've seen in a long time

2. #1e Ward entry 5-2: Good pair of deep Oxley sophomore group

3. #2 Sunriver 7-2: Not denying he's nice.. Just seems a notch below top of crop


10th: NYB-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T

1. #12 All You Need 8-1: Not pasing up 8-1 on Edgar-Dutrow
2. #4 Mohegan Sky 3-1: Rice looking like she has stable poised for meet
A. #2 Curtana 20-1: Nice number on Bush-Leparoux goggle-added gal
B. #6 Madame Music 10-1: Donk's Brahms bay cuts back
C. #9 Willshefire 4-1: Lewis-Luzzi miss trims half furlong


Good luck..
Steve

[AeWingnut]

Sorry Steve.. I had to pick some of the same horse

I have the heaviest $2 in racing
they can't carry me and you

A little chalky, but I like Rockhewn. I will stick with your 2yr old picks though. Hard to pick against the favorites today but I think the heat will be a factor.

[swedejxn]

Just throwing a few out for comparison....

1.. 1-8
2. 4-7
3. 6-3
4. 5-(7or9)
5. 1-12
6. 11-9 cant give up on (Impeachthepro)
7. 6-7
8. LofVenice is going to be the best of this bunch.... but cant make any money like this.... 7-4

9. Maybe Oh So Awesome if he wins.... 3-4

try 4-3- all and 3-4-all in the tris...

10. 6 and 12 about the same....

[ceejay]

This play allows 2 or less ML favorites to win. Key longshot may be Sweet talker in the Di. Thinking she could steal it up front.

% table below:

[lemoncrush]

Nice hit on the super in race 4
I'm watching, not wagering today..especially with the off track.
Good luck the rest of the way.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by ceejay

This play allows 2 or less ML favorites to win. Key longshot may be Sweet talker in the Di. Thinking she could steal it up front.

% table below:

Yeah, this is pretty interesting, can you give me the downlow on this?

[ceejay]

Originally Posted by Scav

Yeah, this is pretty interesting, can you give me the downlow on this?

Downlow on yesterday's play? I didn't make the bet after it came up wet. It turned out too short with 3 Favs winning anyway. In my reckoning the 12 was the likely favorite in R10 once the rain came.

Downlow on the software used to create the plays? see http://bet-smart.com . I consider "bet-smart" part of my edge. (in fact I used it when I won the PaceAdvantage.com "Ridersup Memorial Aqueduct Inner Track Challenge" by open lengths this year) I've learned to manipulate the program, really a complex spreadsheet, and try not to even play tickets with >2 favs (but it is sometime hard to predict downleg favoritism) which usually dissapoint price-wise. I'd rather not cash but have had a shot at a big score than cash but lose money.

[DerbyCat]

If the track is a little sloppy, why not bet on #4 fly to me... she won the FL juvenile in the slop last fall...

[AeWingnut]

I hit the Trifecta in the 4th and you hit the
super

that should have made your day

the rain and the scratches kinda ruined mine a little

changed my pick from Sweet Talker to Angara when I saw the conditions.. sure you did the same.

Bernardi looked hotter in the post parade than he di in the winner's circle