handicapping 101 PART4 "WORKS"

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

i tend to use them on firsters alot and maintence works leading up to a race..some trainers race them into shape..... the derby show "the works" is pretty useless to me i allready know the horses by the time they get in..

[SentToStud]

Regardless of how the race played out, I think horses like Jet Setting are terrible plays at odds-on or near it. That is my opinion. This was not a 20k claimer who runs 15x a year. She was not to be bet due to her work and race pattern.

Back too quick, no works despite bad gate behavior, awful recent race/work activity pattern, eschewing works and an identical spot 12 days later for the quick comeback.

There are different roads that get you to the same place. Personally, I'd never use a horse like that at what was sure to be 4/5 - 6/5.

Doesn't mean I'd bet against the horse but if I did and she beat me, I wouldn't feel bad about it for long.

[blackthroatedwind]

I'm not necessarily disputing the general theory, I just don't think Jet Setting is a great example, as she finished second, in essentially a two horse race, to the only horse that could beat her. I just don't think she substantiates the theory because she finished second. Maybe if she finished fourth.....

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

i tend to use them on firsters alot and maintence works leading up to a race..some trainers race them into shape..... the derby show "the works" is pretty useless to me i allready know the horses by the time they get in..

I like watching that, actually... although we all know the horses going into the Derby, it shows the condition of the horse a bit and that helps me.

[pmacdaddy]

I generally use works in three main situations 1) First Time Starters, 2)Horses of extended layoffs 3) 2nd off layoff runners.

1) For first timers I am generally a big fan of 5F (or greater) works. Also look for eyepoppers (of course). Biggest use for me is identifying gaps that may indicate a negative issue that caused the lapse in training.

2). For horses off an extended layoff, I mainly look for gaps.

3) For second off runners, I like to see a horse that came up short that comes back with some long works. Curious if anyone agrees with this, or just something I have gotten lucky with a few times...

Aside from those, I don't really think I have the knowledge to put them (works) to much use.

[infield_line]

I have been thinking about posting a question regarding West Coast workout times... I understand that West Coast clockers may classify a Churchill "breeze" as "handily", but it just seems like you see really blazing workout times at SA and HOL as compared to just about anywhere else much more frequently, like 58sec 5fl, lots of 35 sec 3fl and 46 sec 4fl. Is it just me or do you rarely see these kinds of work tabs outside of the West?

I/L

[Scav]

Originally Posted by infield_line

I have been thinking about posting a question regarding West Coast workout times... I understand that West Coast clockers may classify a Churchill "breeze" as "handily", but it just seems like you see really blazing workout times at SA and HOL as compared to just about anywhere else much more frequently, like 58sec 5fl, lots of 35 sec 3fl and 46 sec 4fl. Is it just me or do you rarely see these kinds of work tabs outside of the West?

I/L

Everything is handily out West, I have no idea why. recently, it is because the track is cooked fast because of them sealing it from the rain, but you didn't see those types of works at Del Mar, 50 was real quick at Del Mar......

[rontheman1964]

Ditto to what has already been said. Like to see a good pattern of works with no breaks for young horses (or any horses for that matter.) The pattern and length of works are more important to me than the actual times. (I want them fast when I have money on them; not at 5AM.)

Also, I like to see when "the screws are tightened" and gaps of 8 to 10 days between works get shortened down to 7 or 6 or even 5 days before a race. I feel the barn is really targeting this particular race and the horse should be taken very seriously.

It seems I see these things more often early in the year and most often on the West coast.

Cappers that do not employ, or understand workouts are not playing with a full deck. Collectively, they ensure winning players their profit.

Yesterday, in the Fairgrounds finale REVENGE IS SWEET had to be respected and will not be a maiden much longer, but the Mike McCarty roan ( Kings Silver Son, $4.60 ) off the OUTSTANDING 1/7/08 work, figured long gone, even after sixty days on the bench. That view, was considerably enhanced with stablemate Deveroux winning the previous race.

Workouts are a must handicapping tool. If you have not read top shelf capper, Bruno De Julio's book on am activity, you should. Billy Mott, as well as most successful trainers, work their horses as they deem necessary. BBB

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

Cappers that do not employ, or understand workouts are not playing with a full deck. Collectively, they ensure winning players their profit.

Yesterday, in the Fairgrounds finale REVENGE IS SWEET had to be respected and will not be a maiden much longer, but the Mike McCarty roan ( Kings Silver Son, $4.60 ) off the OUTSTANDING 1/7/08 work, figured long gone, even after sixty days on the bench. That view, was considerably enhanced with stablemate Deveroux winning the previous race.

Workouts are a must handicapping tool. If you have not read top shelf capper, Bruno De Julio's book on am activity, you should. Billy Mott, as well as most successful trainers, work their horses as they deem necessary. BBB

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

Cappers that do not employ, or understand workouts are not playing with a full deck. Collectively, they ensure winning players their profit.

Yesterday, in the Fairgrounds finale REVENGE IS SWEET had to be respected and will not be a maiden much longer, but the Mike McCarty roan ( Kings Silver Son, $4.60 ) off the OUTSTANDING 1/7/08 work, figured long gone, even after sixty days on the bench. That view, was considerably enhanced with stablemate Deveroux winning the previous race.

Workouts are a must handicapping tool. If you have not read top shelf capper, Bruno De Julio's book on am activity, you should. Billy Mott, as well as most successful trainers, work their horses as they deem necessary. BBB

i wonder what trainers don't work their horses when deemed necessary tho....