handicapping 101 PART4 "WORKS"

SentToStud · #1 01-22-2008, 03:46 PM

Workouts are important but unless you watch them live and know what to watch for, evaluating a workout as good or otherwise is not overrated, it's impossible.

I look for frequency and timing to determine a sense of readiness. That's about it. First-time starters can be a bit different, but that's not my thing.

The only time I place significant positive value on works is for a 2nd time starter who has dirt route pedigree and sprinted in his first race. If I see a positive work pattern after the first start consisting of 3 seemingly good works and the horse is entered back 25-35 days or so later at the more appropriate distance, then I get interested.

For me, I'm far more interested the chance to downgrade a likely young favorite due to a lack of work. Go back and look at the work/on-track activity of that "case-study" horse, Jet Setting. That horse was running back 21 days (with no interim work) after a bad-start/good finish return from layoff with a race/work pattern that had red flag all over it. As a young 3 yo, the trainer could have waited another 13 days or so for the same race with an opportunity to gate work. The decision to run back quicker with no works is a strong sign of questionable soundness.

Horses like Jet Setting win a lot of races. But at 4/5, she was either a pass or a bet against.

blackthroatedwind · #2 01-22-2008, 03:58 PM

Jet Setting finished second to a better horse. I don't see her as a good example at all. She finished behind the only horse that could beat her on paper going in.

If she was a bad bet at 4:5 it was because she was facing someone of perhaps equal, or more, talent who's only question mark was the layoff. The horse that won the race had lost the Schylerville at Saratoga by a head bob.

hoovesupsideyourhead · #3 01-22-2008, 04:05 PM

i tend to use them on firsters alot and maintence works leading up to a race..some trainers race them into shape..... the derby show "the works" is pretty useless to me i allready know the horses by the time they get in..

SentToStud · #4 01-22-2008, 05:47 PM

Regardless of how the race played out, I think horses like Jet Setting are terrible plays at odds-on or near it. That is my opinion. This was not a 20k claimer who runs 15x a year. She was not to be bet due to her work and race pattern.

Back too quick, no works despite bad gate behavior, awful recent race/work activity pattern, eschewing works and an identical spot 12 days later for the quick comeback.

There are different roads that get you to the same place. Personally, I'd never use a horse like that at what was sure to be 4/5 - 6/5.

Doesn't mean I'd bet against the horse but if I did and she beat me, I wouldn't feel bad about it for long.

blackthroatedwind · #5 01-22-2008, 05:52 PM

I'm not necessarily disputing the general theory, I just don't think Jet Setting is a great example, as she finished second, in essentially a two horse race, to the only horse that could beat her. I just don't think she substantiates the theory because she finished second. Maybe if she finished fourth.....

Cajungator26 · #6 01-22-2008, 06:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

i tend to use them on firsters alot and maintence works leading up to a race..some trainers race them into shape..... the derby show "the works" is pretty useless to me i allready know the horses by the time they get in..

I like watching that, actually... although we all know the horses going into the Derby, it shows the condition of the horse a bit and that helps me.

pmacdaddy · #7 01-22-2008, 06:42 PM

I generally use works in three main situations 1) First Time Starters, 2)Horses of extended layoffs 3) 2nd off layoff runners.

1) For first timers I am generally a big fan of 5F (or greater) works. Also look for eyepoppers (of course). Biggest use for me is identifying gaps that may indicate a negative issue that caused the lapse in training.

2). For horses off an extended layoff, I mainly look for gaps.

3) For second off runners, I like to see a horse that came up short that comes back with some long works. Curious if anyone agrees with this, or just something I have gotten lucky with a few times...

Aside from those, I don't really think I have the knowledge to put them (works) to much use.

infield_line · #8 01-22-2008, 07:50 PM

I have been thinking about posting a question regarding West Coast workout times... I understand that West Coast clockers may classify a Churchill "breeze" as "handily", but it just seems like you see really blazing workout times at SA and HOL as compared to just about anywhere else much more frequently, like 58sec 5fl, lots of 35 sec 3fl and 46 sec 4fl. Is it just me or do you rarely see these kinds of work tabs outside of the West?

I/L

Scav · #9 01-22-2008, 07:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by infield_line

I have been thinking about posting a question regarding West Coast workout times... I understand that West Coast clockers may classify a Churchill "breeze" as "handily", but it just seems like you see really blazing workout times at SA and HOL as compared to just about anywhere else much more frequently, like 58sec 5fl, lots of 35 sec 3fl and 46 sec 4fl. Is it just me or do you rarely see these kinds of work tabs outside of the West?

I/L

Everything is handily out West, I have no idea why. recently, it is because the track is cooked fast because of them sealing it from the rain, but you didn't see those types of works at Del Mar, 50 was real quick at Del Mar......