handicapping 101 PART4 "WORKS"

[SentToStud]

Workouts are important but unless you watch them live and know what to watch for, evaluating a workout as good or otherwise is not overrated, it's impossible.

I look for frequency and timing to determine a sense of readiness. That's about it. First-time starters can be a bit different, but that's not my thing.

The only time I place significant positive value on works is for a 2nd time starter who has dirt route pedigree and sprinted in his first race. If I see a positive work pattern after the first start consisting of 3 seemingly good works and the horse is entered back 25-35 days or so later at the more appropriate distance, then I get interested.

For me, I'm far more interested the chance to downgrade a likely young favorite due to a lack of work. Go back and look at the work/on-track activity of that "case-study" horse, Jet Setting. That horse was running back 21 days (with no interim work) after a bad-start/good finish return from layoff with a race/work pattern that had red flag all over it. As a young 3 yo, the trainer could have waited another 13 days or so for the same race with an opportunity to gate work. The decision to run back quicker with no works is a strong sign of questionable soundness.

Horses like Jet Setting win a lot of races. But at 4/5, she was either a pass or a bet against.