capping 101..the "SPOCK HORSE"

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The 5th race sets up very well on paper for Anlyn, especially if Play N Hooky goes. Her last race was weak, with an overall very good trip, but she could suck up if there is a substantial speed duel. However, in order for that to happen, I Promise has to fail to show up and Jet Setting has to get buried in a duel. All not impossible but a lot to ask for at a mediocre price.

That is what I've been trying to say!
I think she has a decent shot. Are the other two more likely winners? Yes, of course. I am not "trying to beat" either of them. If I am seriously going to play a race, I take a lot of time and try to set my own line for the horses. I never decide if I am going to play a race for certain until about 10 minutes before the race (unless it is the Kentucky Derby or something like that). In general, if a horse I liked seems like a good value 10 minutes out, I'll play it. If not, I'll skip the race entirely.
As I said before, I think Anlyn here is about a 7/2 shot. If she goes off at 3/1, 7/2, or something like that, I wouldn't play her. If they send her off at 6/1 or more I probably would (if I was playing at all today....which I'm not).

[blackthroatedwind]

Personally I don't think 7-2 is a good price but in an odd way it might be a good sign. In order for her to be 7-2, or less, I Promise will have to not be getting bet they way she should be and, in general, horses like I Promise, especially from that barn, that don't take the money they should end up underperforming. So, if I Promise is a lukewarm 5-2, or higher, and Anlyn is seemingly overbet, then I guess her chances are better than they seem on paper.

But, she still has to beat Jet Setting, which is not going to be easy. But, I guess that's why she's the proverbial " third likeliest winner. "