capping 101..the "SPOCK HORSE"

Oaklawnfan · #1 01-15-2008, 10:47 AM

I like to look for a shipper to go against him or her. I also look for the trainers shipping wins percentage. It seems to work the best for me. Beyond that, I'm interested in what everyone else has to say.

hoovesupsideyourhead · #2 01-15-2008, 10:52 AM

lets use race 5 at aq as an example thursday is pp 2 jet setting beatable....

blackthroatedwind · #3 01-15-2008, 11:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

lets use race 5 at aq as an example thursday is pp 2 jet setting beatable....

That race is Wednesday and it's not clear that horse is the favorite.

hoovesupsideyourhead · #4 01-15-2008, 11:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

That race is Wednesday and it's not clear that horse is the favorite.

weds.. and lets look at the 7 .....

hoovesupsideyourhead · #5 01-15-2008, 11:03 AM

[quote=hoovesupsideyourhead]lets use race 5 at aq as an example thursday is pp 7 i promise beatable..QUOTE]

SentToStud · #6 01-15-2008, 11:18 AM

I think if you're betting against a short price horse the best way is the single race verticals. You can bet a multi-race wager and catch but I'd rather go for the single race crush because if I'm right, the tri/super payoffs will almost always be strong if I hit.

I pretty much look for turf races with full or near-full fields. Two types:

1. The steep dropper from a top barn. Not the claiming guys like Lake or Assmussen but when Pletcher, Zito, Motion, Baffert, K McP, and local guys here like Wolfson drop one for a tag, it's not cause they just want to cash; they want to cash out. If they get steamed to odds-on, they'll probably run well and I'll pass, but 2/1, 5/2 or 3/1 means (for these trainers) they're dead on the board. I'll look at standard factors like recency, works and works vs a similar race pattern in the past to decide to fire. If I find the weakness and there is a horse I like, I'll play my horse in all the tri/super slots with 4-5 others. Using 5 with a key that way is $300, so it's not cheap. And you have to be right on three things: the bad short-priced horse running out, the key and the other 5 completing.

2. The somewhat seasoned late 3 yo or 4 yo maiden (say 3-4 starts) coming off it's best on paper that was much more the result of race dynamics and bad competition than ability. It's pretty amazing how many of these one-race wonders go off 3/2 or shorter in their follow-up for what can be no good reason.

I'm having a bit of success with this lately. Everything else is pretty useless for me right now, though I did have a $15 winner at Palm Beach Dogs

a couple weeks ago.

hoovesupsideyourhead · #7 01-15-2008, 11:33 AM

thanks bruce..very nice ..

myself in the race in question the 7 is beatable he may be the favorite after the graded tries and connections..but.. this horse may need a race as its been on the shelf for some time .. im thinking it had some minor health problems..the works are strong..so that may make it the odds on fav..ny bettors are pretty smart so to pull one over is tough. he may very well win

but i would take a stand against em in pick 3s and pick 4 with the 6/2/1

also looking closer at the works .. many of these were on low workout days 1 of 4 ,2of 5 ,1of 3

blackthroatedwind · #8 01-15-2008, 11:43 AM

Why would you take a stand against that horse? The race isn't open behind it. There are two horses that can win that particular race....I Promise and Jet Setting. It's close who will be the favorite though I guess it will be Jet Promise. However, why would you only use one or use another at the expense of either?

hoovesupsideyourhead · #9 01-15-2008, 11:52 AM

jet promise?...i would use the horses that figure to me without using the 7 as i dont think hes as good as advertised..thus giving me better chance if the 2 does not fire or backs up ..i get a prize...

the 6 is capable of a 45 split ..and closed into it.. both the 2 and 7 can be beat to me the 2 has its own set of negitives but less so than the 7 the 3 playing hooky could be the one to run down.......

blackthroatedwind · #10 01-15-2008, 01:24 PM

I strongly disagree. I think it is very unlikely that one of those two horses doesn't win. CT Phone Home isn't in the same area code as Jet Setting. Without an incident it is near impossible CT beats him. I Promise might.....but nobody else.

miraja2 · #11 01-15-2008, 03:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I strongly disagree. I think it is very unlikely that one of those two horses doesn't win. CT Phone Home isn't in the same area code as Jet Setting. Without an incident it is near impossible CT beats him. I Promise might.....but nobody else.

Just out of curiosity, why are you dismissing the #1 (the Jerkens/Arroyo horse)? I seriously doubt if I bet this race, but I tend to agree with hooves that Jet Setting might be vulnerable, and if the Jerkens horse is 5/1 or more - which he certainly might be - he seems potentially playable to me in this spot.

Bobby Fischer · #12 01-15-2008, 01:37 PM

No reason to oppose Jet Setting. She is in very good form. She probably wins if I Promise doesn't wire the field. Asmussen hasn't shown signs of cooling down.

I Promise is the class of the speed and probably the class of the race. She should have worked herself into shape after the 7 works. I don't like the way she finishes her races, but Dominguez figures to get a great trip.

Jerkens has a Anlyn also, but would have to rank behind the top 2. You can't tell from the published works if she is in great shape.

Linda Rice has a nice little statebred sprinter, but this race came up a little tougher than normal. Could get better value later.

This isn't a race I would bet, but is nice for it's classification.

philcski · #13 01-15-2008, 01:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SentToStud

I think if you're betting against a short price horse the best way is the single race verticals. You can bet a multi-race wager and catch but I'd rather go for the single race crush because if I'm right, the tri/super payoffs will almost always be strong if I hit.

I pretty much look for turf races with full or near-full fields. Two types:

1. The steep dropper from a top barn. Not the claiming guys like Lake or Assmussen but when Pletcher, Zito, Motion, Baffert, K McP, and local guys here like Wolfson drop one for a tag, it's not cause they just want to cash; they want to cash out. If they get steamed to odds-on, they'll probably run well and I'll pass, but 2/1, 5/2 or 3/1 means (for these trainers) they're dead on the board. I'll look at standard factors like recency, works and works vs a similar race pattern in the past to decide to fire. If I find the weakness and there is a horse I like, I'll play my horse in all the tri/super slots with 4-5 others. Using 5 with a key that way is $300, so it's not cheap. And you have to be right on three things: the bad short-priced horse running out, the key and the other 5 completing.

2. The somewhat seasoned late 3 yo or 4 yo maiden (say 3-4 starts) coming off it's best on paper that was much more the result of race dynamics and bad competition than ability. It's pretty amazing how many of these one-race wonders go off 3/2 or shorter in their follow-up for what can be no good reason.
I'm having a bit of success with this lately. Everything else is pretty useless for me right now, though I did have a $15 winner at Palm Beach Dogs

a couple weeks ago.

This is a very good point and the best type of horse to stand against in my opinion, especially in maiden claiming ranks. Eventually those types win... after losing 5 times as the favorite.