monday gulf ,sa ,fg pick 4s

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

There's still more than one way to be successful.

And, even if picking winners is overrated, you still need to be right at some point, whether it's making a horse an A,B,C or X in multis or betting against a short priced horse in a single race.

A couple of the better players I know eschew the multi-race wagers and focus on single race situations to bet strongly against a short-priced, negative-opinion horse mostly through the tri and super pools. Just like the p-4 or p-6 players, they have to be right about their opinion as well as their ticket structure. But they prefer betting this strategy vs being shoe-horned into needing to be right (at least to some extent) about a leg of a p-4 that is, to them, largely undecipherable.

You can still win using different strategies.

Obviously I agree. Being right somewhere will always be important, and as you said better than I did, that being right will often be in who you are betting against and how you do it.

[Bobby Fischer]

For a site that is minimal on B.S., there are several really good cappers here.

If anyone is interested, I watched the replay for the Fairgrounds 6th, and there didn't appear to be any advantage in the first 15 seconds. Cheap speed actually went out first. Couldn't be past posting/late posting. I think the best guess is that the connections Amoss/Maggi Moss felt they had a move-up and put between $3-5k to win (missed the place/show action) as they were loading the gate. They didn't want to influence the public by making their horse the favorite the whole time. That info doesn't help anyone, but the next time you think you have an Amoss move-up, it is something to look for in the last few odds bumps.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

For a site that is minimal on B.S., there are several really good cappers here.

If anyone is interested, I watched the replay for the Fairgrounds 6th, and there didn't appear to be any advantage in the first 15 seconds. Cheap speed actually went out first. Couldn't be past posting/late posting. I think the best guess is that the connections Amoss/Maggi Moss felt they had a move-up and put between $3-5k to win (missed the place/show action) as they were loading the gate. They didn't want to influence the public by making their horse the favorite the whole time. That info doesn't help anyone, but the next time you think you have an Amoss move-up, it is something to look for in the last few odds bumps.

why do you think it was the connections betting......

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

why do you think it was the connections betting......

I think they knew that the horse was right. May have been a case of a sound, willing horse going from Hay/Oats/Water in a barn that doesn't win a lot -to top nutrition available in a high% barn.

Maybe the money came in very weird, or there is a lucky hunch player or a great pro, but of the informed players the most likely scenarios lead to Amoss.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Are you really serious with this stuff?

serious question?


the 2 horse win bet was not as efficient as possible. Had it been perfect it would have been $115/$85 ratio (instead of $105/$95) out of the $200. At 2.1-1 and allowing for me to naturally be off a few dollars here or there, the pool change cost me about $20 additional profit.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

... How on earth is it a wise move to invest $200 into a race and basically bet short priced horses? The object is to win money and IMO that strategy is a sure fire way to lose in the long run.

Good question.

For that race it came down to deciding how likely I felt I would win with those two horses.
I was confident and felt that I had about 65% chance of winning covered.

The final price that I got from final odds would break even if I win 56% of the time.
Meaning as long as my opinion of confidence is accurate and higher than the 56% price, I am getting a good opportunity.

If I can buy a gallon of gas and a good cup of coffee for under $3.50 I take it.