El Gato Malo

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I think that before anyone automatically discards the results of this race because of they think was an insane speed duel, they would be wise to look at how all of the races on this stuff have been playing out. If you use your conventional thinking of times and fractions and what constitutes a speed duel or a really fast race, you will be way off. For example, if a normal half mile at the track goes in 45 2/5 and you see some horses run in sub-44, it's safe to assume they were going insanely fast. If the norm is 44, however, and some horses go 43 3/5, they might not be going too fast. On this track, we are seeing 6.5f going in under 1:14. We just saw Indian Blessing run a sub-1:20 for 7f. They are going under 1:40 for 8.5f. Conventional thinking doesn't apply on this track.

They also would be wise to watch the replay, before hastily coronating El Gato Malo as the standout out West (there are several good colts here this winter), where they would see 3 horses going balls out from the bell (Denman even comments that MSW Sierra Sunset was "hard ridden" to keep contact at the 3/8s pole) and stopping to a walk at the 1/4 pole (again noted by Denman). Whether or not the adjusted internal fractions play along with the idea of a crazy speed duel, fact is 3 talented horses hooked up very early in a two turn race and burned each other up, setting it up for another very talented horse who had good foundation and was capable of relaxing the first part of the race.

Some of those Santa Anita results are a bit tough to swallow, kind of like this year's BC. It wasn't shocking that El Gato Malo won yesterday, just as it wasn't shocking when Curlin won the Classic, but the manner in which they won in such high profile races seems a bit anomalous (and I understand that EGM previously had two runaway victories over lesser company).

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

They also would be wise to watch the replay, before hastily coronating El Gato Malo as the standout out West (there are several good colts here this winter), where they would see 3 horses going balls out from the bell (Denman even comments that MSW Sierra Sunset was "hard ridden" to keep contact at the 3/8s pole) and stopping to a walk at the 1/4 pole (again noted by Denman). Whether or not the adjusted internal fractions play along with the idea of a crazy speed duel, fact is 3 talented horses hooked up very early in a two turn race and burned each other up, setting it up for another very talented horse who had good foundation and was capable of relaxing the first part of the race.

Some of those Santa Anita results are a bit tough to swallow, kind of like this year's BC. It wasn't shocking that El Gato Malo won yesterday, just as it wasn't shocking when Curlin won the Classic, but the manner in which they won in such high profile races seems a bit anomalous (and I understand that EGM previously had two runaway victories over lesser company).

How he's evaluated after this race probably depends on your opinion going into the race. Going in, I had him as easily the best 3yo in California so nothing he did yesterday changed that opinion. I don't think there are any really good ones out here after you get past him and Colonel John, as far as Classic prospects go. I also didn't feel that the speed duel was as pronounced as some others think it was. Sure, they were going fast but I didn't think it was insanely fast and I thought that the leaders were doing it well within themselves. Sierra Sunset was hard ridden to keep up but I don't think it's cause they were going to fast, rather I think it's just that he's not as fast as they are. The race did set up perfectly for El Gato Malo though. There is no denying that fact. But I hope people don't totally write off the result. It's sort of like the 2004 Kentucky Derby. So many people were quick to write it off as a result of the track conditions and failed to recognize that the two most likely horses to run 1-2 did just that. I think that when track or race conditions yield results that aren't expected, that's when they should be taken with a grain of salt.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

How he's evaluated after this race probably depends on your opinion going into the race. Going in, I had him as easily the best 3yo in California so nothing he did yesterday changed that opinion. I don't think there are any really good ones out here after you get past him and Colonel John, as far as Classic prospects go. I also didn't feel that the speed duel was as pronounced as some others think it was. Sure, they were going fast but I didn't think it was insanely fast and I thought that the leaders were doing it well within themselves. Sierra Sunset was hard ridden to keep up but I don't think it's cause they were going to fast, rather I think it's just that he's not as fast as they are. The race did set up perfectly for El Gato Malo though. There is no denying that fact. But I hope people don't totally write off the result. It's sort of like the 2004 Kentucky Derby. So many people were quick to write it off as a result of the track conditions and failed to recognize that the two most likely horses to run 1-2 did just that. I think that when track or race conditions yield results that aren't expected, that's when they should be taken with a grain of salt.

That's fair enough, and something that wasn't touch upon was the optimum distance of Massive Drama and Talk Of A Cat, which is probably less and certainly no more than a flat mile. It's possible that El Gato Malo won't stretch too much further (not that he'll have to beyond the Triple Crown) than 9f, but certainly his running style is conducive to routing and was made to order the way the race set up (note that plodder-in-the-making Indian Sun clunked up for the place).

Beyond EGM and Colonel John, a couple of other colts to look to out west would be Into Mischief (who Oak Tree maiden win was just as monstrous as EGM's and seems to be overlooked both before and after the Futurity), Signature Move (who has won 2 starts on raw talent, but seems a little green and untested), and I suppose Miamonides (who probably has one foot on a banana peel and the other on a rollerskate).

As far as the '04 Derby, I don't really think Lion Heart would have placed in that spot without the wet surface. 10f didn't seem to be in his range (though his Travers is a throwout as evidence with the broken foot and all). I think the fact that a middle distance type like Limehouse holding on for 4th plays to that. But, like you say, maybe he was second just because he was a top class colt, as the other good horses in there like Birdstone (probably underprepared) and The Cliff's Edge (unsound and shoeless) had excuses.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

That's fair enough, and something that wasn't touch upon was the optimum distance of Massive Drama and Talk Of A Cat, which is probably less and certainly no more than a flat mile. It's possible that El Gato Malo won't stretch too much further (not that he'll have to beyond the Triple Crown) than 9f, but certainly his running style is conducive to routing and was made to order the way the race set up (note that plodder-in-the-making Indian Sun clunked up for the place).

Beyond EGM and Colonel John, a couple of other colts to look to out west would be Into Mischief (who Oak Tree maiden win was just as monstrous as EGM's and seems to be overlooked both before and after the Futurity), Signature Move (who has won 2 starts on raw talent, but seems a little green and untested), and I suppose Miamonides (who probably has one foot on a banana peel and the other on a rollerskate).

As far as the '04 Derby, I don't really think Lion Heart would have placed in that spot without the wet surface. 10f didn't seem to be in his range (though his Travers is a throwout as evidence with the broken foot and all). I think the fact that a middle distance type like Limehouse holding on for 4th plays to that. But, like you say, maybe he was second just because he was a top class colt, as the other good horses in there like Birdstone (probably underprepared) and The Cliff's Edge (unsound and shoeless) had excuses.

Getting to Lion Heart that day, I agree absolutely that he wasn't a 10f horse per say. But I know that he could handle 9f (won the Haskell and was nosed out by TCE in the Blue Grass). I thought that more than the track condition, it was the fact that he was allowed to run unchallenged up front that "carried" him a bit further than most thought he would last. That's something we see time and time again in racing; a horse that's not supposed to last gets left alone and gets brave on the front and are hard to catch. The more natural class that horse has, the harder they are to catch. Intercontinental in the BC F/M Turf is a prime example of that.

I think you hit on something that probably is the best way of viewing yesterday's race. It probably wasn't the pace that did the front runners in or the track as much as neither of them seems to want to run that far period.