Early Top Twenty Derby Hopefuls

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I didn't start watching this game last week. I'd hope that in 20+ years, I've picked up a little something and I just don't see these same limitations that you all see. Maybe it will become clearer to me later but at this point, I don't see them.

I know you didn't start watching the game last week, which is why I think it is a bit unusual that you don't think she is probably limited in terms of her ability to get 10f effectively. Look at her Frizette and BCJF races. Did she win them both impressively? Yes, but she sure looked like she was dead spent at the end of both. Now, we all know that this fact in and of itself is not enough to dismiss a horse's chances when stretched out, but when you couple the way she has looked on the track with her pedigree, there is really no logical reason to think she CAN do it effectively enough to win a race like the Kentucky Derby.
What is it about her that makes you think she WILL be effective at 10f? You seem to be taking the position that we should assume she will be able to do it, because she hasn't proven otherwise. I don't think that makes good handicapping sense.

Oh and by the way, I hate making predictions this far away from the race, but if I HAD to make a selection now I would probably put Anak Nakal at #1.....despite the fact that he only ran an 86 BSF in his last.

[Linny]

My list starts out
1. Anak Nakal
2. Colonel John
3. Into Mischief
4. War Pass
5. Pyro

On the "3yo's to watch" side I would look for include:

Cassoulet ~ Graham Motion trainee won a Laurel allowance in style, training at Palm Meadows.
Denis of Cork ~David Carroll colt was an impressive maiden winner at Churchill Downs. He’s at the Fair Grounds for the winter.
Imaginary Sailor ~Jerry Hollendorfer always has a good one or two at his NorCal base
Mad Flatter ~ Jeff Thornbury colt won a CD maiden then a Fair Grounds allowance in style. Entered in the Lecompte
Riley Tucker ~ Hasn’t run since a 2nd in the Arlington Futurity, may turn up at Mott’s FL base.
Globetrotter ~ Son of Street Cry won the G3 Grey BC last fall for Graham Motion.
Legacy Thief ~ Won a fast allowance at Gulfstream on Saturday for Wayne Lukas

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I know you didn't start watching the game last week, which is why I think it is a bit unusual that you don't think she is probably limited in terms of her ability to get 10f effectively. Look at her Frizette and BCJF races. Did she win them both impressively? Yes, but she sure looked like she was dead spent at the end of both. Now, we all know that this fact in and of itself is not enough to dismiss a horse's chances when stretched out, but when you couple the way she has looked on the track with her pedigree, there is really no logical reason to think she CAN do it effectively enough to win a race like the Kentucky Derby.
What is it about her that makes you think she WILL be effective at 10f? You seem to be taking the position that we should assume she will be able to do it, because she hasn't proven otherwise. I don't think that makes good handicapping sense.

Oh and by the way, I hate making predictions this far away from the race, but if I HAD to make a selection now I would probably put Anak Nakal at #1.....despite the fact that he only ran an 86 BSF in his last.

I don't take the position that she will be great at 10f. That's not how I evaluate things. I don't think Groovy would be a great 10f runner either. However, if his competition was Meafara, Safely Kept, Very Subtle, and Pine Tree Lane, I'd increase his chances of winning at 10f. For me, it's about the competition that they will face more than their ability to handle a certain distance or surface. If she were facing true 10f horses, I might look at things different. But I don't see any horses that I think are true 10f horses in the entire crop. Well, let me ammend that. I see some but I think they are too slow. I didn't see a tired horse in her races. I saw a horse that I thought if they went around again, they still wouldn't have caught her. I'm not sure what is the best way to try to handicap things. If she was trying to do something against horses that had already proven they could do it, that would be different. But at this point, she's gone as far as any of them have and looked better, at least to me, than most of them have. I have never fallen into the camp that says that the way a horse finishes a race at one distance is a sure sign as to how they'll finish at another. I've seen 100's of late running sprinters that people think will relish the stretchout to 7f or a mile and they fail. I've seen many that finish well at 9f and people think that they are crying out for the 10th furlong of the Derby and they fail. I think that what we've seen is a horse that was trained and raced at 8.5f and she ran that distance.

[ArlJim78]

There is no chance Indian Blessing races in the derby, much less win. NO CHANCE. I'm hard pressed to come up with a horse more unsuitable.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I don't take the position that she will be great at 10f. That's not how I evaluate things. I don't think Groovy would be a great 10f runner either. However, if his competition was Meafara, Safely Kept, Very Subtle, and Pine Tree Lane, I'd increase his chances of winning at 10f. For me, it's about the competition that they will face more than their ability to handle a certain distance or surface. If she were facing true 10f horses, I might look at things different. But I don't see any horses that I think are true 10f horses in the entire crop. Well, let me ammend that. I see some but I think they are too slow. I didn't see a tired horse in her races. I saw a horse that I thought if they went around again, they still wouldn't have caught her. I'm not sure what is the best way to try to handicap things. If she was trying to do something against horses that had already proven they could do it, that would be different. But at this point, she's gone as far as any of them have and looked better, at least to me, than most of them have. I have never fallen into the camp that says that the way a horse finishes a race at one distance is a sure sign as to how they'll finish at another. I've seen 100's of late running sprinters that people think will relish the stretchout to 7f or a mile and they fail. I've seen many that finish well at 9f and people think that they are crying out for the 10th furlong of the Derby and they fail. I think that what we've seen is a horse that was trained and raced at 8.5f and she ran that distance.

Groovy would lose in your hypo Derby because everytime he was hooked he lost and he would most certainly would have got hooked in there. He did actually run in the Derby and did about as well as Indian Blessing would.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I don't take the position that she will be great at 10f. That's not how I evaluate things. I don't think Groovy would be a great 10f runner either. However, if his competition was Meafara, Safely Kept, Very Subtle, and Pine Tree Lane, I'd increase his chances of winning at 10f. For me, it's about the competition that they will face more than their ability to handle a certain distance or surface. If she were facing true 10f horses, I might look at things different. But I don't see any horses that I think are true 10f horses in the entire crop. Well, let me ammend that. I see some but I think they are too slow. I didn't see a tired horse in her races. I saw a horse that I thought if they went around again, they still wouldn't have caught her. I'm not sure what is the best way to try to handicap things. If she was trying to do something against horses that had already proven they could do it, that would be different. But at this point, she's gone as far as any of them have and looked better, at least to me, than most of them have. I have never fallen into the camp that says that the way a horse finishes a race at one distance is a sure sign as to how they'll finish at another. I've seen 100's of late running sprinters that people think will relish the stretchout to 7f or a mile and they fail. I've seen many that finish well at 9f and people think that they are crying out for the 10th furlong of the Derby and they fail. I think that what we've seen is a horse that was trained and raced at 8.5f and she ran that distance.

Well I guess we have reached the heart of the disagreement.
I simply have no idea how you could watch those two races and come to that conclusion.