Let me further my turf/dirt discussion.....forget about horses running on grass because they're hopless on the dirt for a second. CJ was explaining the other day about the compression in grass numbers ( which now occurs on Polytrack as well ). The best horses never run as fast as the best dirt horses ( in terms of numbers ) and the worst horses are consistently faster than the worst dirt horses. You will often see a hopeless dirt horse ( like Sir Cryptonite...who is also fooling you in the finale ) run as poorly on turf as dirt yet run a much higher number. This number will virtually never translate to dirt....it is just a function of number compression. For this reason, even if a horse like Turnupthevolume were to reproduce his turf effort on the dirt he will run much closer to 35 than the 57 he ran in his debut. So, you really have to ask yourself if you think he is a substantially better horse on the dirt than on the grass. Now....how can that realistically be the case?
|
12-25-2007, 04:42 PM
Threaded Mode