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[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by jman5581

Way to go Dunbar.. you're rollin' now.

I'm rippin'. At my current rate of one pick every 2.5 months, I'll finish my first round of 10 in about August 2009, unless I pick a clunker and have to reset. Stay tuned. ;>)

Originally Posted by jman5581

Just finished all my law school finals, so I've got time back on my hands...

dunbar, about a month ago you wrote... "I've got to catch a plane in a few hours, but at some point I'd like to write some more about the statistical significance of jman's results."

I'd be interested in hearing what it is you have to say.

hmmm. Oddly, it's going to probably take until my next flight before I have time to look at it again. But I'm glad you reminded me.

What I want to be able to say is something like, "there's just an 10% chance that jman is betting with worse than a 5% disadvantage." To do that, I need to calculate the standard deviation of your set of bets. It's easy, but like many easy things, it'll probably take an hour or 3 before I set it up right.

btw, the hypothetical quote above may not sound very impressive, but there are very few cappers who would be able to claim that level of success from a set of well-monitored picks .

--Dunbar

[jman5581]

let's see... only a 10% chance that I'm betting with a 5% disadvantage... eek, I'm already in over my head... but I think I'm sounding pretty smart... in that case, I will not argue with you.