12/12: AQU - $206,0000 Carryover

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

To get back to this, I had the exact same thoughts after the race, right after I threw my TV out the window when Introspect couldn't hold second due to the obvious stress of his dream suckup trip.

While its hard to imagine Missile Motor wouldn't have won, the race would have to have been run differently, and had the two hooked up in a duel the results could well have been different. However, Missile Motor has rated effectively in the past, and considering his effort it's hard to believe he wouldn't have won simply stalking Fleet Valid. But, considering most outlying wet track efforts are earned loose on the lead, I can't argue that at least the final figure might well have been different.

Taken as an isolated incident, Missile Motor's outlandish effort probably would fall into the outlyer ( on a wet track ) category. However, considering the number of similar performances from this barn, that never seem to be repeated, I have trouble viewing it as such. Take second time starter Lovely Isle's effort last week ( by the way, contrary to reports, Frankel does not have her ). Sure, a second time starter could improve dramatically, and in isolation I suppose this 101 Beyer figure might be another outlyer as well, but how many outlyers can one barn have before it becomes an inexplicable phenomenon?

Agreed. Especially that MM would've been able to rate, if need be.

I went back and looked at MM's MED races after my initial post. I was struck by how good his race on 11/08 was. He does something in that race, that to knowledge, is very rare on the dirt: he accelerates through the lane, running the 6th 1/8th (nominally) faster than the 5th one. And, this isn't after running ridiculously slow early fractions.

Now, I don't really pay attention to dirt races that much, and I certainly don't follow speed favoring tracks like the Meadowlands, but while this phenomenon happens, I'd venture, 10% or so of the time on the turf (in sprints), and is a powerful indicator for betbacks, I've only seen it once on the dirt otherwise. It'd be interesting if someone with a database were able to check it out for MED sprint races. (I looked at Chatain's race, for example, and he was slowing down the last 1/8th ---pace differences aside, of course.)

In any event, clueless as I might be when it comes to speed figures, I'd venture that MM's MED race 11/08 was probably ALOT better speedwise than some might think. Thus, his 'much improved' effort could've been anticipated. How much of an improvement, I'll leave to the figuremakers, however.

While it's nice to RETRODICT, sure wish I'd had this info BEFORE MM's last race.