12/12: AQU - $206,0000 Carryover

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I just took a look at the race and have a few comments/questions for you.

I see where Fleet Valid's number ranges from 75 to 108. And he's run over 100 in half of his previous six figures. Is this type of range typical? (Doesn't appear so, given the ranges of the other horses in the race.) If I were doing numbers, I would probably think that looking at this horse's performance would be the best way to approach the winner's number, as FV is the only one that's run close to the winner's number in the past. But, I don't do numbers and I believe that the winner had an advantage that probably goes a long way towards explaining his number.

I didn't take a look at the running style of the other horses in the race but it appears as if Fleet Valid likes the front. He got slammed coming out of the gate in this race, however, and, then, clearly didn't like the dirt being kicked in his face on the backstretch. So much so, that the jock had to swing him outside horses. Then, he was in tight early stretch, and had to wait a bit for room.

Now, the interesting question is not whether FV is able to run with the winner in the lane (his previous peak was 108, after all --for what it's worth) but, rather, how differently the race is run because FV does not get a good start. Assuming there's a speed duel between the two, the winner probably doesn't run 111.

To get back to this, I had the exact same thoughts after the race, right after I threw my TV out the window when Introspect couldn't hold second due to the obvious stress of his dream suckup trip.

While its hard to imagine Missile Motor wouldn't have won, the race would have to have been run differently, and had the two hooked up in a duel the results could well have been different. However, Missile Motor has rated effectively in the past, and considering his effort it's hard to believe he wouldn't have won simply stalking Fleet Valid. But, considering most outlying wet track efforts are earned loose on the lead, I can't argue that at least the final figure might well have been different.

Taken as an isolated incident, Missile Motor's outlandish effort probably would fall into the outlyer ( on a wet track ) category. However, considering the number of similar performances from this barn, that never seem to be repeated, I have trouble viewing it as such. Take second time starter Lovely Isle's effort last week ( by the way, contrary to reports, Frankel does not have her ). Sure, a second time starter could improve dramatically, and in isolation I suppose this 101 Beyer figure might be another outlyer as well, but how many outlyers can one barn have before it becomes an inexplicable phenomenon?