12/12: AQU - $206,0000 Carryover

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

I hardly believe MM's effort last out was worthy of anything remotely close to a 111 especially considering were talking about, at the end of the day, the horse getting 1:09.3 over a sealed surface. Granted many other factors go in, yada yada, but you have to assume this number is hugely inflated based on how he embarassed a field that obviously wanted nothing to do with the off going. I don't posess the resourses for such data, but would love to see how others fared in similar conditions...I'm guessing closer to 101-104.

Funny that in this exact same race, Mr. Jacobson's Lazzrus style reinvigoration of the 3 I Ain't No Saint, taken off Linda Rice's goes completely unmentioned.

If one were interested in raising an objective "hairy eyeball" to anything in this race, my god man, it would have to be this. I however am more than willing to give Mr. Jacobson the benefit of the doubt here.

Since were talking BSF's here, I Ain't No Saint 3 starts prior to being claimed at Saratoga were 66/83/64. He ran a soundly beaten 3rd and turned in a 76 for the effort the day he was claimed.

Jacobsen claims the horse, gives it 7 weeks off and brings him back to record a 98 bsf 22 points better than the claim effort and miles better than anything in his then recent form. Cut to the next start in the Maria's Mon when he lost by a nostril in a blanket finish at the wire where he puts up a 102 bsf 26 points better than the claim effort. For what it's worth,
and again, many factors including the stake, the surface, etc. but the race was run over the same 6f track where MM was graced with a 111, the winning time of The Maria's Mon was 1:09:2 a fifth faster than MM.

So let me get this straight, because David Jacobson also has suspicion improvements then it is OK, or reasonable, that Gary Contessa does? Nobody here suggested Contessa was the only trainer in America that has these unreasonable performances, I wish it was true, but since he was the magician du jour we were focusing on him.

You say Missile Motor got an inflated figure. Based on what? Did you analyze the other horses' performances in the race or were you just trying to suggest that the improvement by Mr. Contessa couldn't possibly have been as outrageous as it was? A 104 would have seemed reasonable for this horse?

But, to be fair, let's take a look at the other participants in Missile Motor's Grade 1 type performance.....Fleet Valid finished second and earned an 88. His previous six figures were 81, 101, 75, 102, 80 and 108. Introspect, who finished third, got an 87. His previous figs were 75 ( off a layoff ), 84, 88, 83, 92, 88 and 87. He's a Pioneer ( 4th ) got an 81. His prior efforts earned 85, 93, 91, 68, 101 and 93. That Magic Moment was 5th and earned an 80. His prior numbers were 71, 85, 70, 67 and 81. Daddy Joe got a 66 for his 6th place finish. His prior numbers were 98, 78, 82 and 79. The Student, who was 7th, got a 64. His prior efforts earned 86, 90, 91, 87 and 93. And Sinkwich finished 8th and last and earned a 61. His prior numbers were 53, 88, 67, 83, 90, 88 and 88.

It appears that only That Magic Moment's number was even possibly out of line....but then again he too was running first time for the great Gary Contessa. Like it or not, the 111 stands up extraordinarily well under scrutiny.