National Pride

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

I'll recuse myself from any further comment - he's an acomplished trainer, a teriffic horseman and a good friend. I won't speak to innuendo and refuse to draw a cooralation between he and R. Dutrow. It's an ignorant comparison.

I'm really not trying to infer anything. It's just that, to me, it seems that the horses he has had that have won their first starts have not done particularly well down the road and have often gone through lengthy layoffs. Now, to be fair, this is probably the case for many trainers ( if not most ), as getting horses to win first time often takes an enormous toll on them. And, National Pride could easily be an exception, as other than Long Boat Home, or something like that, few have been very fast. But, even that horse made only three more starts, all good, before disappearing for almost two years now.

Actually, trainers have been reasonably successful claiming from Gary over the last few years, and way moreso than claiming from Bruce Levine or Mike Hushion ( two guys who no sane person should ever claim from if you believe stats ).

[pmacdaddy]

Is there a source of those type of stats?

I know DRF PP's gives win % first claim, but I find the opposite just as valuable (or more). Currently rely on anecdotal info (look unfavorably on horses moving from Dutrow, Contessa, Levine, etc).

God only knows how screwed up my impressions are, especially outside of NY...

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by pmacdaddy

Is there a source of those type of stats?

I know DRF PP's gives win % first claim, but I find the opposite just as valuable (or more). Currently rely on anecdotal info (look unfavorably on horses moving from Dutrow, Contessa, Levine, etc).

God only knows how screwed up my impressions are, especially outside of NY...

You can look all this stuff up on Formulator.

[pmacdaddy]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You can look all this stuff up on Formulator.

Thanks. Have to check that out...

[blackthroatedwind]

My other problem with him is his unreliability and I say that from a gambling standpoint. Many of his winners seem to come out of left field while his logical types seem to underperform. In the last 12 months he has won with 18% of his returning winners for a $1.57 ROI and over five years those numbers have been 17% and $1.53. Not awful numbers, but certainly far from impressive, and considering the number of starters I think it is fair to say he underperforms.

Also, his numbers with favorites further back up this up, as even though he has won with a reasonable 32% and 31% for the last year and five years respectively, his ROI has been $1.48 for the past 12 months and $1.51 for the past five years. Once again, I think it is fair to say from these numbers he underperforms.

[docicu3]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

My other problem with him is his unreliability and I say that from a gambling standpoint. Many of his winners seem to come out of left field while his logical types seem to underperform. In the last 12 months he has won with 18% of his returning winners for a $1.57 ROI and over five years those numbers have been 17% and $1.53. Not awful numbers, but certainly far from impressive, and considering the number of starters I think it is fair to say he underperforms.

Also, his numbers with favorites further back up this up, as even though he has won with a reasonable 32% and 31% for the last year and five years respectively, his ROI has been $1.48 for the past 12 months and $1.51 for the past five years. Once again, I think it is fair to say from these numbers he underperforms.

Now I would say you've covered it thanks

[Rudeboyelvis]

My response was to post #26

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

My other problem with him is his unreliability and I say that from a gambling standpoint. Many of his winners seem to come out of left field while his logical types seem to underperform. In the last 12 months he has won with 18% of his returning winners for a $1.57 ROI and over five years those numbers have been 17% and $1.53. Not awful numbers, but certainly far from impressive, and considering the number of starters I think it is fair to say he underperforms.

Also, his numbers with favorites further back up this up, as even though he has won with a reasonable 32% and 31% for the last year and five years respectively, his ROI has been $1.48 for the past 12 months and $1.51 for the past five years. Once again, I think it is fair to say from these numbers he underperforms.

But I understand where you are coming from. That said, Bill Kaplan purchased 3 horses from Ocala for less then 100k combined - all three were in the Derby and none have been heard from since (unless you count Imwildandcrazyguy or whatever his name is, who's done nothing)

EDIT: Storm in May and I'mawildandcrazyguy were in the Derby....I knew he had another on the Trail but can't recolect the name...

[ArlJim78]

I know Gann bought Medaglia D'Oro after a couple of starts or so. Anyone remember who had him first?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I know Gann bought Medaglia D'Oro after a couple of starts or so. Anyone remember who had him first?

I want to say Ron Moffett but I could be completely wrong. I'll see if I can dig it up.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I want to say Ron Moffett but I could be completely wrong. I'll see if I can dig it up.

A guy named Jones I believe. Who the hell is Ron Moffett? Sounds like a porn star.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

A guy named Jones I believe. Who the hell is Ron Moffett? Sounds like a porn star.

Isn't he a trainer?

Was I not only wrong but did I also make someone up? Do I get points for that?

Linny is right.....he did come from Arkansas.

[blackthroatedwind]

Kiaran's numbers are actually kind of interesting and obviously involve some fairly well bred horses. Though Lear's Princess only cost $110K. While three winners from early this year all went on extensive " vacations ", one won back with a 100 plus Beyer fig and another won two additional races, Divine Park, including the Grade 3 Withers. Lear's Princess had a full year and won a Grade 1 and placed in two others. Etched returned from a maiden win to win the Grade 3 Nashua and three have been very recent winners.

But, we are obviously, as you said, dealing with much more expensive stock. I don't think he makes a fair comparison with Contessa either way.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

A guy named Jones I believe. Who the hell is Ron Moffett? Sounds like a porn star.

That was Ron Muff Split

[Linny]

I think he came from Arkansas. I don't remember who had him but he was not at what most would consider an A track.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Linny

I think he came from Arkansas. I don't remember who had him but he was not at what most would consider an A track.

I think he won at Ellis which is not even a B track

[Cannon Shell]

http://www.indiancharlie.com/newsletter110807.html

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm really not trying to infer anything. It's just that, to me, it seems that the horses he has had that have won their first starts have not done particularly well down the road and have often gone through lengthy layoffs. Now, to be fair, this is probably the case for many trainers ( if not most ), as getting horses to win first time often takes an enormous toll on them. And, National Pride could easily be an exception, as other than Long Boat Home, or something like that, few have been very fast. But, even that horse made only three more starts, all good, before disappearing for almost two years now.

Actually, trainers have been reasonably successful claiming from Gary over the last few years, and way moreso than claiming from Bruce Levine or Mike Hushion ( two guys who no sane person should ever claim from if you believe stats ).

Considering the stock he has, it's unreasonable to expect that many (if not most) have trouble with winners. You'd have to agree that he's been fairly successful taking horses off Dutrow et al. for a lot of his claiming clients. As you pointed out, many have run late into their campaigns before breaking...I personally have one that has been with him since January and just broke in October (one of the Hundai King of Albany's wunderkin)...Needless to say he does what he does....I know he was very high on He's Our Ray but believe he suffered a tendon or some other suspensory problem...I'll be glad to find out about the others

[blackthroatedwind]

Yes, I understand and agree it's hard for the cheap winners to win back, but out of the nine possible returnees at least five, and maybe six, have gone on extended sabaticals. Brown Eyed Belle was gone five months, He's a Ray ten months, Keen Irish made one subsequent start and has now been out three months, Gansevoort ran back in six weeks and has now been gone over ten months, Motovato was purchased, returned in two months, and has been unsighted for almost five months and Deities Day hasn't been seen in over six weeks since his big win.

I realize this is a small sample but, to me, it's not very encouraging.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Yes, it's a very small sample considering he's had close to 400 head come and go through his barn since the first of the year. Thanks for your objective candor, it's refreshing to read.

I agree completely with you about the frustrating prespective relative to the player, I guess it keeps things intereresting..He tries a lot of different angles with underperforming horses; quickly back after a poor effort, turf to dirt, dirt to turf, sprint to route , etc. Tough to guage.

[blackthroatedwind]

I'm just focusing on his relatively recent first time starters that won as that is the category National Pride falls under.

The two horrid purchases Paul Reddam made, Marquis Diamond ( who performed abyssmally in two subsequent starts and hasn't been seen since March ) and Barcola, were simply bad buys and whoever advised Mr. Reddam did a poor job of research. Both of those horses were bought off high Beyer figures ( Marquis Diamond an 83 and Barcola around a 114 ) earned when loose on enormous inside speed biases on the inner dirt. I feel I can say this now because I said it then on Byk's show.

From the perspective of Contessa's owners he did a great job in the case of both of those horses. If National Pride has indeed been sold for a substantial amount of money it is frankly another feather in his cap......and yet another good example ( at least for Gary ) as to why nobody should listen to me.