National Pride

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Scav

It is like claiming off of Contessa or Dutrow, you just don't do it. I have seen Jacobson do this time and time again only to end up dropping 3 levels to get them claimed by Contessa or Dutrow again.

Tom - ask the folks that bought Peace Rules about that

He's a nice horse...My stable was offered a piece of him after the sale but we had bought another and had purchased a Steven Got Even filly at Keeneland in January so we were tapped out

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Tom - ask the folks that bought Peace Rules about that

That was over five years ago and things were different then....and Bobby Frankel trained Peace Rules.

[Scav]

I don't even know what happened with Peace Rules, but I do know that there are a couple trainers that try and claim off of Contessa and Dutrow and they don't improve at all. It is like trying to claim off of Catalano around here, I have seen someone successful at it maybe twice in the last three years. Just don't even bother

[blackthroatedwind]

Rudeboyelvis is right. Gann purchased Peace Rules from Contessa after on, or maybe two, starts.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Rudeboyelvis is right. Gann purchased Peace Rules from Contessa after on, or maybe two, starts.

Was Contessa up to his winning ways that far back or just starting?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Scav

Was Contessa up to his winning ways that far back or just starting?

Not exactly.

Plus, Gary Contessa doesn't exactly set the world on fire. What he does is bash people over the head with numbers. He is a 14% winning trainer....but he starts an enormous number of horses.

[Linny]

Not certain here but I'd guess that there is a difference between claiming from someone and negotiating a private sale after a nice maiden win.

Peace Rules stands out as the best horse Contessa sold on after a decent start, but I think he's had a few others who did some good. Not PR's class but decent, useful horses.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Scav

I don't even know what happened with Peace Rules, but I do know that there are a couple trainers that try and claim off of Contessa and Dutrow and they don't improve at all. It is like trying to claim off of Catalano around here, I have seen someone successful at it maybe twice in the last three years. Just don't even bother

Claiming horses and prospective 2yo's are completely different animals...Peace Rules ran well for Frankel, I don't know what came of him other than I believe I saw some of his weanlings going through the sales this year. To BTW's point - he has sold other 2yo's (actually 3yo's) that never panned out - Sunshine Alpine comes to mind, as well as Harborage...Don't know what that has to do with Contessa as a trainer...They were both raced well into their 3yo campaign....He has a large stable because he doesn't get near the stock that the big boys get, and has a whale of an eye for value at the sales

I'll recuse myself from any further comment - he's an acomplished trainer, a teriffic horseman and a good friend. I won't speak to innuendo and refuse to draw a cooralation between he and R. Dutrow. It's an ignorant comparison.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Claiming horses and prospective 2yo's are completely different animals...Peace Rules ran well for Frankel, I don't know what came of him other than I believe I saw some of his weanlings going through the sales this year. To BTW's point - he has sold other 2yo's (actually 3yo's) that never panned out - Sunshine Alpine comes to mind, as well as Harborage...Don't know what that has to do with Contessa as a trainer...They were both raced well into their 3yo campaign....He has a large stable because he doesn't get near the stock that the big boys get, and has a whale of an eye for value at the sales

I'll recuse myself from any further comment - he's an acomplished trainer, a teriffic horseman and a good friend. I won't speak to innuendo and refuse to draw a cooralation between he and R. Dutrow. It's an ignorant comparison.

I wasn't implying anything, just that it is impossible to improve claimed stock off of trainers like Contessa, Dutrow and Catalano, there are many others that I just can't think of right now. William White comes to mind in Florida.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

I'll recuse myself from any further comment - he's an acomplished trainer, a teriffic horseman and a good friend. I won't speak to innuendo and refuse to draw a cooralation between he and R. Dutrow. It's an ignorant comparison.

I'm really not trying to infer anything. It's just that, to me, it seems that the horses he has had that have won their first starts have not done particularly well down the road and have often gone through lengthy layoffs. Now, to be fair, this is probably the case for many trainers ( if not most ), as getting horses to win first time often takes an enormous toll on them. And, National Pride could easily be an exception, as other than Long Boat Home, or something like that, few have been very fast. But, even that horse made only three more starts, all good, before disappearing for almost two years now.

Actually, trainers have been reasonably successful claiming from Gary over the last few years, and way moreso than claiming from Bruce Levine or Mike Hushion ( two guys who no sane person should ever claim from if you believe stats ).

[pmacdaddy]

Is there a source of those type of stats?

I know DRF PP's gives win % first claim, but I find the opposite just as valuable (or more). Currently rely on anecdotal info (look unfavorably on horses moving from Dutrow, Contessa, Levine, etc).

God only knows how screwed up my impressions are, especially outside of NY...

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by pmacdaddy

Is there a source of those type of stats?

I know DRF PP's gives win % first claim, but I find the opposite just as valuable (or more). Currently rely on anecdotal info (look unfavorably on horses moving from Dutrow, Contessa, Levine, etc).

God only knows how screwed up my impressions are, especially outside of NY...

You can look all this stuff up on Formulator.

[blackthroatedwind]

My other problem with him is his unreliability and I say that from a gambling standpoint. Many of his winners seem to come out of left field while his logical types seem to underperform. In the last 12 months he has won with 18% of his returning winners for a $1.57 ROI and over five years those numbers have been 17% and $1.53. Not awful numbers, but certainly far from impressive, and considering the number of starters I think it is fair to say he underperforms.

Also, his numbers with favorites further back up this up, as even though he has won with a reasonable 32% and 31% for the last year and five years respectively, his ROI has been $1.48 for the past 12 months and $1.51 for the past five years. Once again, I think it is fair to say from these numbers he underperforms.

[docicu3]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

My other problem with him is his unreliability and I say that from a gambling standpoint. Many of his winners seem to come out of left field while his logical types seem to underperform. In the last 12 months he has won with 18% of his returning winners for a $1.57 ROI and over five years those numbers have been 17% and $1.53. Not awful numbers, but certainly far from impressive, and considering the number of starters I think it is fair to say he underperforms.

Also, his numbers with favorites further back up this up, as even though he has won with a reasonable 32% and 31% for the last year and five years respectively, his ROI has been $1.48 for the past 12 months and $1.51 for the past five years. Once again, I think it is fair to say from these numbers he underperforms.

Now I would say you've covered it thanks

[Rudeboyelvis]

My response was to post #26

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

My other problem with him is his unreliability and I say that from a gambling standpoint. Many of his winners seem to come out of left field while his logical types seem to underperform. In the last 12 months he has won with 18% of his returning winners for a $1.57 ROI and over five years those numbers have been 17% and $1.53. Not awful numbers, but certainly far from impressive, and considering the number of starters I think it is fair to say he underperforms.

Also, his numbers with favorites further back up this up, as even though he has won with a reasonable 32% and 31% for the last year and five years respectively, his ROI has been $1.48 for the past 12 months and $1.51 for the past five years. Once again, I think it is fair to say from these numbers he underperforms.

But I understand where you are coming from. That said, Bill Kaplan purchased 3 horses from Ocala for less then 100k combined - all three were in the Derby and none have been heard from since (unless you count Imwildandcrazyguy or whatever his name is, who's done nothing)

EDIT: Storm in May and I'mawildandcrazyguy were in the Derby....I knew he had another on the Trail but can't recolect the name...

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm really not trying to infer anything. It's just that, to me, it seems that the horses he has had that have won their first starts have not done particularly well down the road and have often gone through lengthy layoffs. Now, to be fair, this is probably the case for many trainers ( if not most ), as getting horses to win first time often takes an enormous toll on them. And, National Pride could easily be an exception, as other than Long Boat Home, or something like that, few have been very fast. But, even that horse made only three more starts, all good, before disappearing for almost two years now.

Actually, trainers have been reasonably successful claiming from Gary over the last few years, and way moreso than claiming from Bruce Levine or Mike Hushion ( two guys who no sane person should ever claim from if you believe stats ).

Considering the stock he has, it's unreasonable to expect that many (if not most) have trouble with winners. You'd have to agree that he's been fairly successful taking horses off Dutrow et al. for a lot of his claiming clients. As you pointed out, many have run late into their campaigns before breaking...I personally have one that has been with him since January and just broke in October (one of the Hundai King of Albany's wunderkin)...Needless to say he does what he does....I know he was very high on He's Our Ray but believe he suffered a tendon or some other suspensory problem...I'll be glad to find out about the others

[blackthroatedwind]

Yes, I understand and agree it's hard for the cheap winners to win back, but out of the nine possible returnees at least five, and maybe six, have gone on extended sabaticals. Brown Eyed Belle was gone five months, He's a Ray ten months, Keen Irish made one subsequent start and has now been out three months, Gansevoort ran back in six weeks and has now been gone over ten months, Motovato was purchased, returned in two months, and has been unsighted for almost five months and Deities Day hasn't been seen in over six weeks since his big win.

I realize this is a small sample but, to me, it's not very encouraging.