Fleet Valid in for a tag?

[ELA]

Claiming from The Chief is just never a good idea. I can't tell you how many I've been tempted on -- and thankfully been talked out of it -- and how all of them just never came back. The few that came back did so about a zillion classes below, LOL. The Chief has certain advantages that other trainers just do not have.

I don't know anything about her pedigree, but she's not by a commercial stallion and her black type (that shows) -- although it's a win -- is state/restricted stakes. Although there might be some reasons, she's also going in the wrong direction, and that's while she's been in The Chief's barn, so for me, that's hands off.

Unless there is really solid pedigree there, she's not worth anything as a broodmare as that $5k to $20k marketplace is really dead.

Eric

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by ELA

I don't know anything about her pedigree, but she's not by a commercial stallion and her black type (that shows) -- although it's a win -- is state/restricted stakes. Although there might be some reasons, she's also going in the wrong direction, and that's while she's been in The Chief's barn, so for me, that's hands off.

Unless there is really solid pedigree there, she's not worth anything as a broodmare as that $5k to $20k marketplace is really dead.

Eric

One thing I always point out to my readers is that a decent racemare need not have a stellar sire to produce well; she's demonstrated on the track that she has good running genes. So many examples - Jameela, Likely Exchange, Lady Shirl - just to name a few. If the racetrack success is lacking, then you need to worry about her sire's prowess. As it is, this gal's family is more blue-collar than gilt-edged, although her dam is a half to a G1-placed SW in Britain and a SP $1 million-earner in Japan. More breed-to-race than breed-to-sell.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by ELA

Unless there is really solid pedigree there, she's not worth anything as a broodmare as that $5k to $20k marketplace is really dead.

Eric

Not exactly...

[ELA]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Not exactly...

Breed to race is very live, and breed to sell -- if that's your business -- OK, there's a market there. But I'll tell you, I buy/claim fillies all the time and with the residual value in that marketplace, it's not easy to sell those mares these days. I've had several -- good pedigrees, but not great of course (or else they wouldn't be cheap, LOL) -- and they are tough to move. That's part of my business, and there is weakness in that segment of the marketplace. We all know that marketplace has nothing to do with the mega-numbers we are seeing.

Of course each mare is a case specific basis. We all know that. But when I have a $10k to $25k mare to sell, even with pedigreee, sometimes it's hard to give 'em away. I think the smaller, commercial breeders, the solo and family operations, etc. -- in today's day and age of not being in the top echelon -- they look at carrying costs, and everything moving forward, and I don't think the economics dictate the marketplace being solid. Don't get me wrong, you can sell those mares, but it certainly isn't a given.

Eric

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by ELA

Breed to race is very live, and breed to sell -- if that's your business -- OK, there's a market there. But I'll tell you, I buy/claim fillies all the time and with the residual value in that marketplace, it's not easy to sell those mares these days. I've had several -- good pedigrees, but not great of course (or else they wouldn't be cheap, LOL) -- and they are tough to move. That's part of my business, and there is weakness in that segment of the marketplace. We all know that marketplace has nothing to do with the mega-numbers we are seeing.

Of course each mare is a case specific basis. We all know that. But when I have a $10k to $25k mare to sell, even with pedigreee, sometimes it's hard to give 'em away. I think the smaller, commercial breeders, the solo and family operations, etc. -- in today's day and age of not being in the top echelon -- they look at carrying costs, and everything moving forward, and I don't think the economics dictate the marketplace being solid. Don't get me wrong, you can sell those mares, but it certainly isn't a given.

Eric

Eric
If you had been at Keeneland for books 6 and 7 you would have seen a lot of strength in the lower end of mares. The keys are being relatively young, having a blacktype in the 1st dam or good blacktype in the second. There is a huge interest in the secondary markets like PA, NM and some emerging foreign markets. It is not like these mares are being bought for 200% of value, but the ones who qualify are getting the right money.
One of the problems at that level is stud fees still being too high in KY. The problem in the regional markets is the lack of quality stallions period, regardless of price. I know people laugh at a horse like Noble Causeway but at $5000 he is actually not a bad play. At least his owner is going to support him with better quality mares than a typical $5000 stallion will get.

[ELA]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Eric
If you had been at Keeneland for books 6 and 7 you would have seen a lot of strength in the lower end of mares. The keys are being relatively young, having a blacktype in the 1st dam or good blacktype in the second. There is a huge interest in the secondary markets like PA, NM and some emerging foreign markets. It is not like these mares are being bought for 200% of value, but the ones who qualify are getting the right money.
One of the problems at that level is stud fees still being too high in KY. The problem in the regional markets is the lack of quality stallions period, regardless of price. I know people laugh at a horse like Noble Causeway but at $5000 he is actually not a bad play. At least his owner is going to support him with better quality mares than a typical $5000 stallion will get.

I agree Chuck. What was the average for 6 and 7? And, perhaps more importantly, what was the median? I have always looked at the cost of bring a lower priced mare to the sale. From getting her to KY, farm (and I get good deals as many do), to sales prep, pre-sale fees, and so on, it sometimes is cost prohibitive if you sell a mare for $15k.

I was in action during the sale and I think a lot of those mares are not the $10k and $20k mares. I think they are higher priced and higher quality than that. There will always be buyers for them in the sales. But if I have a $10k or $20k mare to sell, it's not anywhere near as feasible to bring that mare to the sale.

But, for the right players, yeah, you are right, it's there. I just think for someone like me, when I have that mare to sell (especially in the off-season), it can be like ice in the winter. And, the sale is the sale, the rest of the marketplace is year 'round. I find the $30k and up market very strong. These are the mares that can sell yearlings in later books for strong money. Regardless, like Bob Fox has always said -- this is a business of self-expression.

Eric

[blackthroatedwind]

I realize your discussion is tangental, and interesting, but in the specific case of Becky's Flute, I am pretty sure the Chief knows as well as most what she's worth, and he appears to be willing to lose her for a quarter. That's enough for me in this situation.

[ELA]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I realize your discussion is tangental, and interesting, but in the specific case of Becky's Flute, I am pretty sure the Chief knows as well as most what she's worth, and he appears to be willing to lose her for a quarter. That's enough for me in this situation.

Absolutely, no doubt. More than enough for me as well.

It's the stereotypical game of mental you-know-what. In this case, I wouldn't even waste my time. Not mentioned as well, she might not be "sound" reproductive-wise. A complete pass.

Eric