TVG vs Scav Selection Thread

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by GPK

I would think limit the small ticket to under $50 and the larger ticket must be at least $150. Im open to any suggestions though..

That'll work. Say at least $144 as that is an easy combo to come up with.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

That'll work. Say at least $144 as that is an easy combo to come up with.

works for me.


As a side note, im glad we were able to hijack Scavs thread...even if for a little while.

[Scav]

6: 1,3,4,10,11,12
7: 7,11
8: 1,5
9: 3,4

$48

[blackthroatedwind]

That was a lousy beat.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

That was a lousy beat.

yes it was...considering both the 3 & 4 had will pays showing almost $590 for $1

[declansharbor]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

That was a lousy beat.

Sure was. It looked good as the 3 took the turn sharply.
Tough one Scavs. Dont worry, you'll pop one and be in the black.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

That was a lousy beat.

Agreed, was a nice payoff for a good ticket and I thought he was home free at the top of the lane.. Had no problem with him taking a stand against the #7 at 4/5, either.

On a completely unrelated side note, my friend hit the late pick 4 at Aqueduct today with a $48 ticket. Talk about a ROI! Congrats to him!

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by philcski

Agreed, was a nice payoff for a good ticket and I thought he was home free at the top of the lane.. Had no problem with him taking a stand against the #7 at 4/5, either.

On a completely unrelated side note, my friend hit the late pick 4 at Aqueduct today with a $48 ticket. Talk about a ROI! Congrats to him!

That was nice for your friend....but unless he also used the second horse ( who I needed for the late Pick-3 ) he was extraordinarily lucky.

[docicu3]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

That was nice for your friend....but unless he also used the second horse ( who I needed for the late Pick-3 ) he was extraordinarily lucky.

The absurdity of that comment is surpassed only by the consistency of your perpetual desire to demean and devalue the success of other handicapping opinions....the individual who won that Aqu. P4 obviously made superb handicapping decisions that brought success for his effort. Because the guy didn't use a horse that you used doesn't make him any less intelligent on this particular day. To characterize that as "lucky" reveals how seriously you take your own opinion and how little you think of the rest of horse playing nation.......geez give the guy a break he brought down an incredible score.

[Scav]

I don't know Doc, I don't think he is around here to 'demean' anyone. I have read what he said about 10 times and I still can't figure out what he is trying to say (probably becuase I am tired) but it could very easily be one of those message board statements that is 'read' wrong.

He has been nothing but cool with me.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by docicu3

The absurdity of that comment is surpassed only by the consistency of your perpetual desire to demean and devalue the success of other handicapping opinions....the individual who won that Aqu. P4 obviously made superb handicapping decisions that brought success for his effort. Because the guy didn't use a horse that you used doesn't make him any less intelligent on this particular day. To characterize that as "lucky" reveals how seriously you take your own opinion and how little you think of the rest of horse playing nation.......geez give the guy a break he brought down an incredible score.

Demeaning someone? Give me a break and stop misreading what I write to suit your ridiculous personal agenda.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

That was nice for your friend....but unless he also used the second horse ( who I needed for the late Pick-3 ) he was extraordinarily lucky.

In the last? I bet that horse yesterday. Left with too much to do. Said he liked her but didn't use her in the pick 4.

Obviously you have to get extremely lucky to cash a ticket like that, he said he only used two in the first leg and bet his other selection- he only threw in the semi-ridiculous Peperoni because he thought he might make the lead (which was a valid reason, and had decent pace numbers to support it). The other two legs were very reasonable, and while I didn't bet Hunting I certainly would have covered that spot in the pick 4. I didn't post his success to start a pissing match betweeen anyone (obviously), just wanted to share his incredible success.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

For anyone confused....

The last winner was a first timer on the turf with some breeding and was certainly not an illogical winner on paper and hardly a surprising winner per se and just as unsurprising a use by someone playing the race. However, after the race was run, a proper analysis of the race reveals that he was a fortunate recipient of extraordinarily favorable circumstances.

First of all, take a good look at the pps of the entire field and tell me honestly that the pace figured to unfold in the advantageous manner it did for the winner. Magic Wand dueled in a 22 and 45 pace in her debut. Vivacious Vivian was involved in reasonable paces in sprints in her two races ( both on the turf ). Justinline was on or very near the lead in three previous turf sprints. Stormy Miracle, the winner, also had shown real speed, but to predict that the horse would easily make the lead, and be able to run his middle half in 53 seconds, while on the lead, would have been near inpossible. The pace was so helpful to the frontrunner that Justinline, who stalked him, was able to hold to the finish of this mile race even though he had lost ground in the stretch in all of his previous efforts going a quarter of a mile, or more, less ground.

But there's more....much more. While the second place finisher did benefit from a ground saving trip, as the winner did, she was shuffled a bit into and around the turn, but more importantly when she tried to get outside for clear running into the stretch she was completely shut off. This forced her rider to alter course back to the inside where she moved up and was only able to get clear when it was too late. Like many horses, she clearly did her best running when free and outside of horses, and had she split at the top of the stretch she most likely would have won. Now, she would have done so with a sweet trip, but considering the pace dynamics of the race, and the fact that little ground was gained by any closers, she hardly ran in a race that suited her running style. You combine these factors and she was an unfortunate loser.

But there's more......the fourth place finisher Kristi with a K blew the break by breaking to the far outside and continued with a wide trip against the aforementioned slow pace. In a mildly fairly run race, even with the ground loss, she too would probably have beaten the winner.

In my opinion had the race been run fairly, and by this I mean an honest and not crawling pace, not a blistering speed duel either, both the second and fourth finishers would have beaten the winner. If this doesn't make the winner fortunate I simply don't know what does.

Somebody cashes every bet that pays off at the racetrack. That does not change the reality of any given race and how it played out upon reflection. Explaining this obviously doesn't demean anyone, and certainly we have all cashed when we got lucky, but perverting the events to somehow suit some ridiculous additional personal need would be absurd.....and I'm sure Phil was neither doing that nor would he disagree about this race.

I think logic goes out the window on the Aqueduct turf. There is no way to judge the pace dynamic prerace; the jocks all seem very content to run ridiculously slow fractions.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by philcski

I think logic goes out the window on the Aqueduct turf. There is no way to judge the pace dynamic prerace; the jocks all seem very content to run ridiculously slow fractions.

I don't disagree, but in a way that makes the winner luckier, as in a crapshoot like you suggest, he was the absolute lucky beneficiary.

[Scav]

Guys, gonna have to take a pass on the rest of this contest. I need to focus on some other things for a while now and won't have time to continue.

Pertaining to this, I actually have some respect for the TVG people now because it is REALLY this is hard to do. I have no idea what would have happened in the long run but I think a decent conculsion to this is that $50 is a low level ticket into the type of pools that we are trying and the type of races that are being contested. At the larger tracks you can be comfortable with putting $90-$150 and getting some coverage and it paying decent. At small tracks where the talent level really varies, I wouldn't recommend that type of ticket size. Look at Churchill's recent PK4 results and the payouts, and put them with what they paid to win, it is out of control how well they paid IMO.

[pmacdaddy]

OTE=philcski]
On a completely unrelated side note, my friend hit the late pick 4 at Aqueduct today with a $48 ticket. Talk about a ROI! Congrats to him![/quote]

That is a feat. Think it paid $46K for $2. Damn...

[ALostTexan]

Originally Posted by pmacdaddy

OTE=philcski]
On a completely unrelated side note, my friend hit the late pick 4 at Aqueduct today with a $48 ticket. Talk about a ROI! Congrats to him!

That is a feat. Think it paid $46K for $2. Damn...[/quote]

No kidding. Nice hit...