Melbourne Cup weights

[_ed_]

Trainer Danny O'Brien today:
"Until they change the distance to 2000m, the VRC Derby isn't going to be a relevant form race for good horses going forward. It's too testing."

Well said sir.

[NoChanceToDance]

Aidan O'Brien reckons that Mahler has over a stone in hand with the weight he has given in the Cup. If that is true, he could be very hard to beat. He's a horse that can handle firm or soft conditions. We know he stays two miles really well, and he was placed in a Classic last time.



MAHLER!

[brockguy]

one of my biggest worries for Mahler is that he is so so one-paced. fair enough, we know he stays 2 miles, but I think you really need a 10-12f horse for this race. you need that type of speed to get a good early position and have a finishing kick. thats why i thought Imperial Stride would have been an ideal type!!.. I wont forget the day I saw Master O'Reilly come from last to first about 10 wide and win ridiculously easily. he has the speed to win over shorter and Ive got my 16-1 betting slip tucked away nicely..

[brockguy]

actually looking back on his form, i mightnt be giving mahler the credit he deserves, but i still think his lack of a gear will hurt him in the race..
interesting quotes from Fallon from last years racingpost::

A HIGH-CLASS stayer in Europe but not quick enough for the demands presented on the first Tuesday of November at Flemington. That was Kieren Fallon's verdict on Yeats, after the Gold Cup and Goodwood Cup winner had faded from the lead to finish only seventh behind the historic Japanese one-two in yesterday's Emirates Melbourne Cup.
Fallon, who later excelled when winning the Listed Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes on the David Hayes-trained Polar Bear, went into yesterday's big race convinced that Yeats had the right combination of stamina and speed to give Ireland its third win in the race.
But he was in a very different frame of mind after the event, after Yeats had surrendered quite tamely early in the straight, having gone to the front over half a mile out.
The race was won by trainer Katsuhiko Sumii, who sent out Delta Blues to beat stablemate Pop Rock and further advertise the strength of racing in their homeland.
Jamie Poulton's 200-1 outsider Land 'N Stars fared best of the British raiders, storming down the home straight under John Egan to take fifth place. Glistening was tenth and Geordieland just 18th under Frankie Dettori.
Fallon said: "We thought we had the right horse for the race, but we were wrong. This is a very different type of race to ride in than most staying races in Europe. At home, the pace in such races builds gradually and increases all the way. But they rode two races in one out there today, and a genuine stayer like Yeats is not what's required.
"What's needed is a good-class mile-and-a-half horse, or maybe even a mile-and-a-quarter horse. You have to have speed for this race and Yeats, at this stage of his career, didn't have the kick to stay with them when they quickened early in the straight. I know that he won a Group 1 race over a mile and a half, but that was in June of last year and he has been trained for staying races this year.
"At least we've learned from today's experience, and we know the type of horse we need if we want to come back and win a Melbourne Cup - a horse with speed as well as stamina. There was no pace down the back straight and I had to go when I did. I couldn't go any sooner with such a big weight, as it would have set things up for the others."
Fallon claimed that Yeats, who missed the break slightly, had been tightened up early on, but that he was able to take up a good position after going a couple of furlongs. "The moderate pace and his big weight were the main things against him today," Fallon added.
Andrew Murphy, who headed the fourmember Ballydoyle team that brought Yeats from Ireland, reported that the five-year-old appeared "none the worse" for his exertions.
A bigger disappointment than Yeats, especially for Australian punters, was Tawqeet, the Caulfield Cup winner who had been trained by John Dunlop before joining David Hayes.
Attempting to become a third Melbourne Cup winner for Sheikh Hamdan, Tawqeet started 5-1 jointfavourite with runner-up Pop Rock, despite a scare on the eve of the race when he spread a shoe and needed poultice and bandage treatment for a hoof pricked by a nail.
Examined and passed fit by a veterinary panel early yesterday, Tawqeet finished 19th of the 23 runners, and the owner's racing manager Angus Gold said: "It was a very disappointing run. He got shuffled too far back early on and would have needed to be Pegasus and Shergar rolled into one to win from where he was. Maybe the foot issue had something to do with his performance. We will see how it is when he has cooled down. As he never got into the race as such, we cannot say whether two miles was too far for him."
Efficient, winner of the Victoria Derby on Saturday, had to be scratched from the big race early yesterday morning owing to a knee injury.

[NoChanceToDance]

He wouldn't be quick enough on firm ground, but from all accounts there is no chance of firm ground. If it's good or softer it will help him a lot.

Weight stops trains, and he hasn't really got anything on his back.

He won over both ten and twelve furlongs at the beginning of the year and i think people just assume he is slower than he actually is, just because he won the Queens vase.

In the Leger he set a really good gallop, and if he hadn't have stumbled, i still think he would have won. Even with that stumble, if that race was over two miles , he probably would have got back up close home.

I'm a complete novice when it comes to Oz racing, and i know very little about the others. I know Mahler will stay, i don't think he is THAT slow and he has a very good racing weight. My worry is the jock, who i have had a few bad reviews of from people into their Aussie racing.

My heart is probably ruling my head, but he will still be my selection.

[my miss storm cat]

Not my pick but am still refusing to give up on Maybe Better.

I know, I know, off the board but hope he does well. Sometimes I hate being so damned sentimental.

Nah, not really.

Think I might go with Efficient here, even though he's disappointed me.....

[magic_idol]

The Main difference we find between horses is actually racing style.
Here we have alot of horses & they dont like giving each other any room so basically its a tight race for some reason europe horses dont like this & race poorly in this race last years grey swallow being one.
Having said that this year is alot different with the other states not being able to compete & the winning of last year by japans quality duo