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#1
10-26-2007, 09:35 AM
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For two, before the Arc they weren't really interested about coming to this race anyway. They even said if they won the Arc (which they did) they wouldn't be going to America with him. I don't think they will be too bothered if he doesn't run. Three. They have a few other runners with half decent chances, it's not as if they have spent lots by just taking him over not to run. Four. DT has shown he isn't the same horse or anywhere near when running on soft ground. With this likely to be his last run (if he does run) Coolmore will be gutted if he retires on a low note, which is more than likely on soft ground. Five. The horse has much more to lose than to gain...... does he have anything to gain by winning this? Not really. Six. The coolmore team are getting very concerned about the Arc winners stats for this race, the soft ground gives them a real excuse to take him out and forget about those dreadful stats. He had a fairly hard race there, and their concerns could be justified. Seven. Before the Arc they were leaving it until late about whether to run him or not. If the ground was deemed too soft they would have pulled him out. There are more than enough reasons for him not to run in the Turf. I Cons of running greatly outweigh the pros of running.
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Avatar ~ Nicky Whelan  and now we murderers because we kill time 
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#2
10-26-2007, 09:45 AM
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#3
10-26-2007, 10:11 AM
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Ten. Oh bother! Tally ho!! I forgot nine! Eleven. He'll run.
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#4
10-26-2007, 10:23 AM
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I'm not saying he will definitley get scratched, but there is a big chance of it happening, and the more rain they get the more likely he will be scratched. I really don't see what they will gain by running him.
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Avatar ~ Nicky Whelan and now we murderers because we kill time
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#5
10-26-2007, 10:24 AM
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#6
10-26-2007, 10:33 AM
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All i'm saying is that at the moment there is a real doubt about him actually running on Saturday. Why would they want to risk him when he has nothing to prove and on turf that he will hate? They have worried about soft turf before, and what will be any different this time? They weren't really bothered about this race before the Arc, they weren't really bothered about it after the Arc and then all of a sudden they were going to run him. Soft turf will change that. It was being called european good to soft by the jocks and the trainers yesterday.
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Avatar ~ Nicky Whelan and now we murderers because we kill time
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#7
10-26-2007, 10:40 AM
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Your insight is that of a fan yet you're acting like an insider. You aren't. You don't know what they're going to do. I was mocking you.
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#8
10-26-2007, 10:51 AM
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I have said that the Coolmore team weren't interested in sending DT to the Breeder's Cup, and that is true. Before the Arc when asked if DT would go to America the answer was no. Then it changed to if he won he wouldn't travel. It shows that coming here was a very last minute decision. Even if he didn't win there was only an outside chance he's come here. No, i'm not an insider, but i do know that there is doubt over him running at this point in time. Aidan O'brien has publicly said that the horse doesn't like soft ground and they will try and avoid it whenever possible. The ground will be on the soft side on Saturday. No, i don't know what they are going to do, i was told by a friend who works for coolmore in the States that there is a doubt if the rain comes, whether she is 'in the know' i'm not sure, but those words had come from Dermot Ryan, and that has been backed up on our racing channel today. I'm not saying he won't run, but there is a doubt over him doing so.
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Avatar ~ Nicky Whelan and now we murderers because we kill time
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#9
10-26-2007, 10:45 AM
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Re: the stat on Arc winners in the Turf, I thought the sample size was really small; I thought it was 4; I could be wrong on that but I thought I heard that the other day. And Trempolino ran a great race; he lost a photo to a great American grass horse (Theatrical). Secondly, there haven't been too many soft courses; the 1988 running w/Great Communicator was on a bog; I think the Arlington and Lone Star BC races were on less than firm but not too many "softs" or "yielding".
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#10
10-26-2007, 10:18 AM
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Tainted reasons? If those aren't very good reasons not to run, i don't know what are the good reasons. If the ground is very soft, which there is every chance it could be, he will get stuffed. You clearly have no idea of how ground dependant this horse is. The BC turf was never the plan with him, i was first surprised when they said they were actually going to run him. It was never the plan. As i said, before the Arc they said they doubted he was going, and they said if he was to win, America would be well and truly off the cards. The Arc stats are misleading? 0-8, or is it 0-10 Arc winners? If Magnier is concerned, that is enough for me to be a little concerned to. If he runs and gets stuffed tomorrow, it won't help his sire status. His Arc win was the best performance of his career. They would much prefer to retire him with that clear in the mind of everyone. I will ask you again, what does he have to gain by running in this race? The answer you are looking for is nothing. All the talk over here is that he would be a very doubtful starter if the rain does arrive on Saturday.
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Avatar ~ Nicky Whelan and now we murderers because we kill time
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#11
10-26-2007, 10:45 AM
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#12
10-26-2007, 10:53 AM
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__________________
Avatar ~ Nicky Whelan and now we murderers because we kill time
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#13
10-27-2007, 08:42 AM
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#14
10-27-2007, 11:32 AM
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what you did wrong is that you hound certain peoples opinions over and over as if you are superior. of course it was likely that he would run, you're not a hero to point that out.
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#15
10-27-2007, 12:31 PM
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so, from the guy who fancies himself as the leader of the board predators, i'm bestowed the title of board robin hood? i'm honored.
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#16
10-27-2007, 12:40 PM
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GD troublemaker...
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#17
10-27-2007, 12:44 PM
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yeah, guys like me, bet twice a year. Tell you what all the Dylan smack talking on here did. It helped me drop the race all together. there are plenty of others.
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#18
10-27-2007, 04:01 PM
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Hate to say it, but they shouldn't have run him.
Not even hit the board!!! I hope you all avoided him like the plague!
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Avatar ~ Nicky Whelan and now we murderers because we kill time
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#19
10-27-2007, 11:40 AM
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I thought it was very unlikely that Dylan Thomas would run with all of the rain forecast, given what they have said about soft turf before with this. Anyway, who has said he is sure to run? Last i read on any of the racing websites was that Aidan O'Brien was "very concerned about soft ground". I gave valid reasons why they could (and maybe should scratch him) and i got my head biten off. I take it you have never been wrong before?  Am i bothered that it looks like i was wrong. It's just like someone making a call saying a 100/1 will win.
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Avatar ~ Nicky Whelan and now we murderers because we kill time
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#20
10-27-2007, 11:55 AM
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Apart from the managers at coolmore america where did i sound like i had inside information? I gave my own reasons for why i thought he wouldn't run. What is wrong with that? I can understand the posts if i cam on and said "Dylan Thmoas won't run" without giving any reasons whatsoever. Anyway, it's done. If he runs, he runs and i don't think he will win. That again is my opinion, you don't have to agree with me.
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Avatar ~ Nicky Whelan and now we murderers because we kill time
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