Indian Vale

[The Indomitable DrugS]

For starters, she's finished behind Unbridled Belle in EACH of her last three races.

And with Hystericalady in the race, there is no way Indian Vale gets an easy early lead....or any early lead at all.

I agree that it's a tough race to make an ML for....but Indian Vale has all the look of the 5th choice in the betting to me.

[blackthroatedwind]

I was shocked. I assume Brad Thomas made the line and I'm sure he did a far better job than I could have but I think he blew this one badly.

It's a wide open race and an especially tough one to make a line.

[NoChanceToDance]

It's a very competitive race, but i think Unbridled Belle would be the NAP of the breeders cup. I don't see how she isn't top of the M/L.

[ArlJim78]

wide open race, imo. a complex race. would not want to be assigned the task of making the line. who knows how the public is going to see this one?
I would probably start with Unbridled Belle and Lears Princess as tepid fav's.

imo anything put on Hysterical Lady or Tough Tizs Sis is dead money.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Why?

[robfla]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

imo anything put on Hysterical Lady is dead money.

what? because of the post?

she certainly is fast enough to win

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by robfla

what? because of the post?

she certainly is fast enough to win

Anyone of Hystericalady's last three dirt races are good enough to mop up this pathetic field.

She's faster than the other speed, and the nine furlong distance will suit her perfectly. I also am quite puzzled how she can be considered dead money at 8/1. I suppose she becomes a FAR less attractive if her synthetic races are held against her - but, anyone who's watched her dirt races knows she's a speed horse who breaks open races with an explosive burst off the far turn, and on synthetic surfaces, those horses always underperform.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Anyone of Hystericalady's last three dirt races are good enough to mop up this pathetic field.

She's faster than the other speed, and the nine furlong distance will suit her perfectly. I also am quite puzzled how she can be considered dead money at 8/1. I suppose she becomes a FAR less attractive if her synthetic races are held against her - but, anyone who's watched her dirt races knows she's a speed horse who breaks open races with an explosive burst off the far turn, and on synthetic surfaces, those horses always underperform.

... but that would be far too logical to do.

If she holds on against Tough Tis's Sis, on a surface she clearly doesn't prefer, what is she? Probably the morning line favorite! And now she's 8-1 with arguably the two best older filly performances of the year under her belt (the Molly Pitcher, which was just dominating, and the Humana Distaff)? Then call me dead money!!!

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Anyone of Hystericalady's last three dirt races are good enough to mop up this pathetic field.

She's faster than the other speed, and the nine furlong distance will suit her perfectly. I also am quite puzzled how she can be considered dead money at 8/1. I suppose she becomes a FAR less attractive if her synthetic races are held against her - but, anyone who's watched her dirt races knows she's a speed horse who breaks open races with an explosive burst off the far turn, and on synthetic surfaces, those horses always underperform.

i don't see this unfolding like the Molly Pitcher, that was not a fast pace and she was totally not challenged at any point whatsoever, not hard to look great powering home under those circumstances. at a minimum i see Indian Vale and Bear Now as faster early than Hysterical Lady.

one way to look at her synthetic races is to say she doesn't do well on cushion track, although I don't buy that because her figures are more or less in line with her other races. another way to look at it is to say that routing she isn't as good as the type of fillies and mares she'll face in the distaff. so let me get this straight, she is so good on dirt that she'll mop up on this pathetic field, yet when members of this pathetic field beat her on cushion track (Balance, Tough Tiz' Sis), its because the cushion track effects Hysterical Lady much more than the others? i don't buy it. she could be in the mix but i don't see her finishing better than third.

[robfla]

hate to be on topic, but:

on the other hand; if you DO throw out the cushion races then she is 7 wins in 11 starts at distances from 4.5f to 8.5f. She is proven she doesn't NEED the lead as shown in the 7f Humana at CD and others. If you watch that race it is one of the most visually impressive of the day notwithstanding that of Street Sense ( Derby Day ) If she can sit behind the speed and make her move on the far turn she can win at 10-1. Castro is underrated too so maybe 12-1 + due to the post

[Scav]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

although I don't buy that because her figures are more or less in line with her other races

I'd like to argue this. Hystericalady's last two dirt performances were close to -2(-1.75 and -1.5) where her cushion performances were no where near that (2.75, 3, 2.25). I see a huge difference in those.

My issue with her is the post, if she finds a way to only be 2w into the turn then she mops this field IMO. but 4w and she will have issues.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

at a minimum i see Indian Vale and Bear Now as faster early than Hysterical Lady.

Hystericalady was cross entered in the Sprint race ...

She's won at 4.5 furlongs, a stakes winner at 5 furlongs, set the pace in the INSANELY fast paced Las Flores at 6 furlongs earlier in the year, won a Grade 1 race at 7 furlongs at Churchill by open lengths after being rated very hard and sitting about a length off of the speed crazy Shaggy Mane.

And you think Indian Vale is faster? A daughter of Belmont winner A.P Indy, who's made the early lead just once in the last two years - when she set the pace in the disgracefully paceless Next Move at AQU.

Bear Now obviously doesn't have the raw speed of a Hystericalady - but she needs the lead and Hystericalady doesn't...and she's drawn inside of HL.

I'd like to see Flores send HL, but he's annoyingly patient, especially when drawn outside. If she doesn't clear, and gets hung up on the first turn, I think HL can still win with rating tactics.

Prior to running on the synthetic surfaces - Hystericalady was seen as some brilliant speed crazy run-off who couldn't rate...if someone said after her Humana win that Indian Vale was faster than her...it would compete with the legendary Excellent Meeting reminds me a lot of Alydar comment from AOL about five years ago.