BC: Classic (PP's/Odds)

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I don't get why so many people think that Hard Spun will be lone speed here. I don't think there is any chance of that happening. I believe Lawyer Ron will press him. It may not be in the first quarter or three furlongs but by the time they reach the half mile mark, I believe that Lawyer Ron will have moved up to engage him and the battle will be on. It will cause both horses to go a little faster than they want to go from the half to the 6f mark and weaken both of their stretch runs. Lawyer Ron will put Hard Spun away by the time they hit the top of the lane but will have nothing left to hold off the late runners in the final 8th. Curlin is my choice to win this race and Lawyer Ron is my choice to run third. For the second spot, I'm leaning towards towards AGS but will also play GW and Street Sense there.

Pino would love to go 24 seconds for the first quarter. Where that puts the others I don't think really matters to him. Hard Spun can run a 24 first quarter and work his way up to a 6 furlong call between 1:11 and 1:12. Pino and Jones are confident that Spun can win on these terms. They don't care about another horse. As long as he doesn't get taken out in 109 like the preakness, or 116 like the Belmont the horse will put in a solid run. Pino and the Hard Spun have matured in their relationship to the point where they are capable of going a moderate 24 first fraction and have no intention whatsoever of "sneaking" away with a fast first fraction to get lone speed. Hard Spun will not even notice a little guy like Lawyer Ron anyway.

Lawyer Ron the horse wants to go 23 and small change for the first quarter. This creates a potential problem because John Velazquez does not want to lead at the first fraction. Johnny is going to hope and pray that Hard Spun goes as fast as the arm-chair handicappers seem to think Hard Spun will go - because JV does not want Ron on the lead, but he will have to have a good hold on Lawyer Ron to go 24 again.
If Ron can repeat the showing of the JCGC then they will be extremely pleased and will have a chance to hold on and win the race. If no one runs big behind them at the top of the backstretch- Ron may open up big with a furlong to go.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

Pino would love to go 24 seconds for the first quarter. Where that puts the others I don't think really matters to him. Hard Spun can run a 24 first quarter and work his way up to a 6 furlong call between 1:11 and 1:12. Pino and Jones are confident that Spun can win on these terms. They don't care about another horse. As long as he doesn't get taken out in 109 like the preakness, or 116 like the Belmont the horse will put in a solid run. Pino and the Hard Spun have matured in their relationship to the point where they are capable of going a moderate 24 first fraction and have no intention whatsoever of "sneaking" away with a fast first fraction to get lone speed. Hard Spun will not even notice a little guy like Lawyer Ron anyway.

Lawyer Ron the horse wants to go 23 and small change for the first quarter. This creates a potential problem because John Velazquez does not want to lead at the first fraction. Johnny is going to hope and pray that Hard Spun goes as fast as the arm-chair handicappers seem to think Hard Spun will go - because JV does not want Ron on the lead, but he will have to have a good hold on Lawyer Ron to go 24 again.
If Ron can repeat the showing of the JCGC then they will be extremely pleased and will have a chance to hold on and win the race. If no one runs big behind them at the top of the backstretch- Ron may open up big with a furlong to go.

lr didnt give his best at belmont..he will on bc day...why kill the horse when the bc is so close..

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Couldn't the same be said for Curlin, or Street Sense? Lawyer Ron sat a perfect trip and flat out got beat by Curlin. He ran well, don't get me wrong. But I think he's off the board in the Classic.

a bold statement.. .. i like that.. but for me the rest are suspect..

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Couldn't the same be said for Curlin, or Street Sense? Lawyer Ron sat a perfect trip and flat out got beat by Curlin. He ran well, don't get me wrong. But I think he's off the board in the Classic.

Funny, but we agree.

[geeker2]

any thoughts on post time favorite? and possible odds?

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by geeker2

any thoughts on post time favorite? and possible odds?

Curlin at 3-1

[Scav]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Curlin at 3-1

Dunbar is the man when it comes to making these odds, but Lawyer Ron should be favored when all said and done, with SS/Curlin/AGS all floating in the same area.

[Mortimer]

I'm gathering intelligence.








I'm not finding much.


But intelligence isn't everything.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Scav

Dunbar is the man when it comes to making these odds, but Lawyer Ron should be favored when all said and done, with SS/Curlin/AGS all floating in the same area.

As someone planning on betting this race, I hope you are right about Lawyer Ron being the favorite, but I am not so sure he will be. Don't you think a lot of people will be scared off by his 0 for 3 lifetime number going 10f?
I know I will be.